As BJP sets higher electoral goals, it confronts challenges on many fronts in Maharashtra

However, the nomenclatures “khoke sarkar” (a term for bribery) and “ED sarkar” (alluding to the allegations of the misuse of central agencies) adopted aggressively by the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) against the Eknath Shinde-Fadnavis coalition government has percolated to the grassroots, experts pointed out. NCP Maharashtra unit chief Jayant Patil alleged, “Nobody has misused the central agencies so blatantly as the BJP. It’s a method adopted to silence the rivals or ensure they quit their parent party and join the BJP.”

What has also compounded the problems for the saffron party is the Election Commission’s decision to award the Shiv Sena name and bow and arrow poll symbol to Shinde’s party.

The decision may have had a devastating effect on the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena but it has helped generate public sympathy for his party to some degree. And this is evident from the crowd at the rallies held by Uddhav Thackeray and Aaditya Thackeray in the last couple of months. And despite sharp differences and ideological conflicts, the Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena (UBT) have resolved to remain united. If the three Opposition parties continue to stick together and contest elections under the MVA banner, the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) would have to brace for a tough battle.

‘Tod-phod rajniti’

Notwithstanding its good work, the so-called Operation Lotus, which saw the BJP handing over the reins to Eknath Shinde, has given credence to the theory that the party thrives on tod-phod rajniti. From a party which took pride in projecting itself as the one with a difference, it has earned the tag of the party which promotes defection.

In June 2022, the BJP successfully carried out its Operation Lotus to split the Shiv Sena. With help from the Shinde faction, the BJP returned to power in Maharashtra. But its image has taken a dent. What was termed as political revenge did not yield the desired results with support for Uddhav amongst the grass root sainiks not shaken completely.  And thus the Shinde faction has been entrusted with the definite task of aggressively weaning away the sainiks’ support from Thackeray.

BJP Maharashtra unit chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule asserted, “Thackeray is reduced to a nano party. He is left with just 16 MLAs out of 56. And six MPs out of 18. But we will reduce his party to a minuscule outfit.”

The party has also drawn a strategy to welcome not only leaders but workers across the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena (UBT). Almost 97,000 booths will proactively work to reach out to people and rivals and the target is to reach out to 3 crore people, according to BJP leaders.

Working its way up

The BJP, which was founded on April 6, 1980, was not a major political force to reckon with in Maharashtra. The Congress was the ruling party and was powerful both in terms of organisation as well as governance. The Shiv Sena, founded on June 19, 1966, had already established itself as a militant regional party fighting for the sons of soil centred around the state’s Thane and Mumbai districts. The NCP did not exist then and came into being following a split in the Congress on June 10, 1999.

Through strategic planning, the BJP progressed steadily in the state. Shedding its “bhatji-shetji” (upper caste party) image in the 1980s, its ideologue Vasant Bhagwat stressed social engineering—Mali, Dhangar, Vanjari—to give it an OBC outlook. The experiment worked as the BJP consolidated itself amongst the OBCs which yielded electoral dividends. Another major factor which worked for the BJP’s rise was its estranged alliance partner Shiv Sena then led by Bal Thackeray. Even after the Shiv Sena leadership was transferred to Uddhav Thackeray in 2012, the alliance with the BJP continued.

However, 2014 saw both saffron partners caught in a power tussle and deciding to contest the Assembly polls separately. They reunited after the polls to form the government. But after 2019, Thackeray cut the ties to isolate the BJP and joined hands with the Congress party and NCP to form the MVA. The MVA government under his tenure as the chief minister lasted 2.5 years from November 2019 to June 2023.

In 2019, the BJP had won 105 seats with a 25.75 per cent vote share and its then alliance partner Thackeray’s Sena got 56 seats and a 16.41 per cent vote share. The highest number of seats it has won was 122 in 2014 with a 27.81 per cent vote share. In the last elections, the party won 105 seats bagging 25.75 per cent of votes.

To achieve the target of 51 per cent, the BJP will have to add 25.25 per cent. Even with the help of Shinde’s Shiv Sena, accomplishing the target could turn out to be an arduous task.

“Why will farmers, women, OBCs, and unorganised sector workers whose lives changed through welfare schemes not support us?” wondered Bawankule. “The BJP along with its alliance partner Shinde group will work to get 51 per cent vote share in the 2024 polls.”