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Journalism of Courage
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slip to 7 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2023 owing to weak demand, according to the first official estimate released by the Statistics Ministry on Friday.
India had recorded a 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. If the forecast by the National Statistical Office (NSO) holds true, India’s GDP growth will be lower than Saudi Arabia’s expected 7.6 per cent expansion. Although the projections are much lower than government’s earlier forecast of 8-8.5 per cent growth, they are above the Reserve Bank’s projection of 6.8 per cent.
The NSO predicted the output of the manufacturing sector to decelerate to 1.6 per cent as against a growth of 9.9 per cent in FY22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22.
The NSO said, “Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, released on 31st May, 2022.”
The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, it stated.
“Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at ₹273.08 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of ₹236.65 lakh crore, released on 31st May, 2022. The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4 per cent as compared to 19.5 per cent in 2021-22,” NSO’s statement added.
Owing to the continued geopolitical tensions and tightening of global financial conditions, the RBI, in December, had lowered the country’s GDP growth forecast to 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal from 7 per cent.
The NSO also listed out growth projections for different sectors. The agriculture sector is projected to see a growth of 3.5 per cent in FY2022-23, higher than the 3 per cent expansion recorded in the previous financial year. Trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting segment is estimated to grow at 13.7 per cent from 11.1 per cent in 2021-22. However, construction sector growth is expected to decelerate to 9.1 per cent from 11.5 per cent a year ago.
