India, China, Brazil can be hit by sanctions over Russia trade: NATO chief

“My encouragement to these three countries, particularly, is if you live now in Beijing, or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard,” Rutte told reporters.

The NATO chief’s remarks come amid tariff uncertainties and global trade wars with the US, and India’s own trade with Russia, particularly oil imports.

Weeks ago, there were concerns in India over a controversial Bill in the US that proposed 500 per cent tariffs on countries that continue to trade with Russia. More recently, US President Donald Trump also threatened “biting” secondary tariffs at the rate of 100 per cent on buyers of Russian exports unless there is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal within 50 days.

Industry watchers and experts see these as tactics to force Putin’s hand by pressuring countries who import from Russia. India has so far not scaled back on its oil imports from Russia, and has maintained that it is willing to buy oil from whoever offers the best price, as long as the oil is not under sanctions. Russian oil itself is not sanctioned, but the US and its allies have imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel, as per which Western shippers and insurers cannot participate in Russian oil trade if the price of Moscow’s crude is above that level.

India and China are the top importers of Russian crude, and Delhi is engaging with US lawmakers and the Trump administration to voice concerns regarding India’s energy security. India depends on imports to meet around 88 per cent of its crude oil needs, and Russia has been the mainstay of India’s oil imports for nearly three years now.

With much of the West shunning Russian crude following the country’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia began offering discounts on its oil to willing buyers. Indian refiners were quick to avail the opportunity, leading to Russia, earlier a peripheral supplier of oil to India, emerging as India’s biggest source of crude, displacing the traditional West Asian suppliers.

While the discounts have varied over time, Russian oil flows to India have remained robust despite Western pressure and limited sanctions on Russia’s oil trading ecosystem. Booming oil trade with Russia has also catapulted the country to the list of India’s biggest trading partners.

In data: India’s Russian oil imports

India’s Russian oil imports rose to an 11-month high in June, further cementing Moscow’s continued dominance in Delhi’s oil import basket. According to tanker data, Russian crude accounted for a massive 43.2 per cent of India’s total oil imports in June, outweighing the next three suppliers — West Asian majors Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — put together. In June, India imported 2.08 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude, the highest since July 2024, and higher by 12.2 per cent on a month-on-month basis, according to vessel tracking data from global commodity market analytics firm Kpler.

According to India’s official trade data, oil imports from Russia were at 87.4 million tonnes in the financial year 2024-25, accounting for almost 36 per cent of India’s total oil imports of 244 million tonnes. Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia’s share in India’s oil import basket was less than 2 per cent. In 2024-25, the value of India’s oil imports from Russia was over $50 billion, or 35 per cent of India’s total oil imports worth $143 billion.

“This resurgence in Russian volumes reflects both commercial incentives and geopolitical realignments. Russian barrels have remained highly competitive due to discounts, payment mechanisms, and logistical flexibility via alternative shipping and insurance networks. Despite mounting Western sanctions, Indian refiners have managed to maintain — and even expand — procurement from Russia. Barring any severe logistical or regulatory disruptions, this trend is likely to persist in the coming months,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.

“Looking ahead, Russia will likely remain India’s largest crude supplier – with a share of 35-40 per cent (in India’s oil imports) – supported by price competitiveness and techno-economics. However, this dominance could face pressure if the West escalates enforcement of secondary sanctions targeting financial or shipping facilitators. Such a scenario could either reduce Russian volumes or push Indian refiners to seek greater compliance safeguards,” Ritolia said. Oil imports from West Asia are also expected to stabilise in the 35-40 per cent range.

Tariff threats: Will they, won’t they?

It is yet to be seen if the recent tariff threats made against countries like India and China for their energy imports from Russia will translate into tangible tariff action. The Trump administration has been rather mercurial when it comes to trade tariffs; making sweeping announcements, then pausing and negotiating.

The hope in India’s oil sector is that the US won’t actually implement tariffs related to India’s oil imports from Russia, as it is in the interest of the US and the global economy that the international oil market remains well-supplied. If Russia is unable to supply its crude, global oil prices are bound to rise due to lower supply being available.

But if the US indeed goes ahead and imposes such tariffs, India would be pushed to cut down oil imports from Russia and increase imports from other suppliers, primarily its traditional West Asian suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, which would push up the cost of imports by a few dollars a barrel. Additionally, it could also lead to complications in India’s ongoing trade deal negotiations with the US, its largest trading partner.