The world this week | India pivots to China, Russia, Brazil amid stalled trade talks with US; UN declares famine in Gaza

However, configurations of ties in the international arena are not without caveats. While Trump’s economic coercion in part facilitates efforts in India to amend ties with China, New Delhi is also closely observing Islamabad cosying up to both Beijing and Washington. At the same time, India’s strategy of multialignment seems to be chipping away at Trump’s desire to maintain America’s global preeminence. Let’s unpack it all.

Kissinger maxim at play?

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi this week and discussed border issues with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. After their meeting, a 10-point consensus was declared on a “fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable framework for settlement of the boundary question”.

During his meeting with Wang, Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed the “steady and positive progress” in bilateral ties since last October. Wang also handed over an invitation from President Xi Jinping for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation leaders’ summit on August 31 and September 1.

While India and China have completed the disengagement process along the LAC, about 50,000 to 60,000 troops on each side are still deployed along the border. At Wang’s meeting with Doval, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar brought up the issue of de-escalation.

Following his visit to India, the Chinese foreign minister travelled to Afghanistan and Pakistan and discussed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with their counterparts. Notably, India has objected to CPEC, as it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Interestingly, China’s outreach towards Pakistan coincides with an extension of a trade truce with the US for another three months, while India faces a 50 per cent tariff. A 25 per cent US tariff on Indian goods came into effect on August 7, while another 25 per cent, imposed for buying oil from Russia, kicks in on August 27.

India was among the early frontrunners to have kicked off trade talks with the US and was aiming to maintain a differential of 10-20 per cent in tariffs with China. However, at present, India is in the company of Brazil, Myanmar, and Switzerland, facing steep US tariffs, while China is a beneficiary of this situation, as it stands, or as it gets progressively worse for India.

At the same time, Trump’s manoeuvres towards China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, have largely been interpreted around China’s economic strength and its control of the global rare-earth elements. However, experts like C Raja Mohan present an interesting analysis of Trump’s parallel manoeuvres with Moscow and Beijing based on a maxim by Henry Kissinger that “Washington should always strive to have better relations with other great powers than they do with one another.”

Pivot to China, Russia, Brazil

In the meantime, India has ostensibly begun a pivot not just towards China, but also towards Russia and Brazil, while the trade talks with the US remain stalled. India and the EAEU on Wednesday (Aug 20) kickstarted negotiations for a trade deal.

The EAEU comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation, and has a combined GDP of $6.5 trillion. The trade turnover between India and the EAEU stood at $69 billion in 2024, a 7 per cent increase over 2023.

While India has remained firm in its stance to protect the interests of its farmers, the additional 25 per cent tariff with effect from August 27, 2025, will make Indian exports to the US unviable for most, including ready-made garments (RMG), chemicals, agrochemicals, capital goods and solar panel manufacturing, which have sizeable trade exposure in the US.

In this context, exporters said that Russia could become a key market for Indian textile and pharmaceutical products. India primarily exports engineering and electronic goods to Russia. Drugs and pharmaceuticals are the third-highest export item.

During his three-day visit (August 19-21) to Russia, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar  also said the two sides agreed to sustain energy cooperation through trade and investments.

At the same time, as Indian oil refiners intensify their crude diversification efforts, India’s crude oil imports from Brazil posted the highest growth among all oil suppliers in the first six months of 2025, according to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGCI).

Notably, Brazil has emerged as a major non-OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil supplier over the years, with crude inflows to India from the South American nation rising about 75 per cent year-on-year in January-June to 72,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 41,000 bpd, according to SPGCI.

However, several logistical and pricing challenges persist in importing oil from Brazil, along with competition from West Asia, which constitutes the bulk of crude supplies to India, and Russia, which has emerged as India’s largest supplier of crude oil, accounting for 35-40 per cent of its total oil imports by volume.

Gaza faces ‘catastrophic’ famine

A United Nations-backed global hunger monitor declared famine in Gaza City and surrounding areas, as Israel marches on the war-ravaged city amid the global outcry and domestic protests.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) on Friday (August 22) said the Gaza Governorate, which includes Gaza City, now faces “catastrophic conditions”, characterised by “starvation, destitution and death”.

In the IPC’s five-stage food insecurity classification, “catastrophe” is the worst condition, which it says is orchestrated by four “man-made” factors in Gaza: conflict, displacement, restricted access, and food system collapse.

More than 500,000 people in the Gaza Strip now face “catastrophic conditions”, 1.07 million are in emergency levels (Phase 4), and 3,96,000 in crisis (Phase 3), the IPC says.

Throughout the nearly two years of war, Israel has restricted aid delivery to the Gaza Strip to varying degrees. In March, it imposed a full blockade on the occupied territory, denying food, medical supplies and other essential aid to the more than 2 million population.

Israel eased those restrictions in May to allow the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), an Israeli-backed American contractor, to distribute aid by replacing the 400 UN-run sites it shut down on flawed charges. Media reports highlighted that aid-seeking Palestinians were attacked and killed nearly daily at and around GHF-operated aid sites.

Yet another report jointly published by the Forensic Architecture (research agency) and World Peace Foundation (charity foundation) finds that under Israel’s ‘military model’ of aid distribution, intentional mass starvation is happening on two levels:

— The biological starvation of individuals through the provision of starvation rations, or no rations at all.

— The destruction of the group as a whole, through collective dehumanisation, separating the population from its land, and the disintegration of a functioning Palestinian society in Gaza.

Urgent call for ceasefire 

The report by the IPC, which is a UN-backed body recognised by the international community to determine food insecurity levels around the world, also underlined the urgency of implementing a ceasefire. But Israel has apparently rejected a 60-day ceasefire plan brokered by Qatari and Egyptian mediators, and accepted by Hamas this week. The plan would see the release of half of the remaining hostages in Gaza.

Rather, media reports say that Israel has launched the first stage of its controversial military offensive in Gaza City, approved by the national Cabinet. Israel also said it would call up about 60,000 reservists and extend the service of others for the planned offensive.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who rejected the IPC report as an “outright lie”, argued that the offensive is the surest way to free captives and crush Hamas, while Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that Gaza City will be destroyed if Hamas did not agree to disarm and release all hostages.

The international community condemned Israel over the famine and criticised its planned offensive on Gaza City, with the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calling Gaza’s famine a “man-made disaster, a moral indictment, and a failure of humanity itself”.

In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of Israelis held one of the largest demonstrations in Tel Aviv since the start of the war in October 2023, demanding an end to the war in Gaza and the release of hostages, The Guardian reported.

Two-state solution 

In addition to its offensive in Gaza, Israel continues with its plans to build a controversial illegal settlement in the occupied West Bank. The international community, including countries like the UK, Australia, and Japan, condemned the plan, saying it would render a future two-state solution for Palestinians impossible.

However, Palestinian Ambassador Abdullah Abu Shawesh, while speaking to The Indian Express, questioned the stance of Western countries as “they’re still supplying Israel with different types of weapons. They should impose measures that can enforce Israel to put an end to this clear-cut occupation.”

About 700,000 Israeli settlers reportedly live among 2.7 million Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Israel has said it currently has control over 75 per cent of Gaza, while the UN estimates some 86 per cent of the territory is either in militarised zones or under evacuation orders.

The two-state plan envisages a Palestinian state in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, existing side by side with Israel. All three territories were captured by Israel during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the Six-Day War.

However, Ambassador Shawesh asks, “India and every single (country) around the world is talking about a two-state solution. Is it fair to allow the Palestinians to build their state in only 22 per cent of their historical land?”

Meanwhile, Iran and three major European powers have agreed to resume nuclear talks next week, Iranian state media reported on Friday. Nuclear talks between Iran and the US collapsed in June after Washington and Israel attacked Iran during a 12-day conflict. Since then, inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have not been allowed into Iran’s facilities.

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