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The political atmosphere in Uttarakhand is intensifying as the state readies itself for the forthcoming by-election for the Kedarnath Assembly seat, home to the Char Dham pilgrimage site, following the death of BJP MLA Shaila Rani Rawat.
Although no official announcement or notification has been issued regarding the nomination or voting dates, both the BJP and Congress have already begun preparations for what is expected to be a decisive contest in the state’s changing political landscape.
In the wake of the BJP’s sweeping victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it won all five seats in Uttarakhand, recent by-poll successes for the Congress in the Manglaur and Badrinath Assembly seats have shifted the political momentum. The BJP’s loss of the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat, a constituency with deep religious significance given that Ayodhya and the Ram Temple are located there, has only heightened the anticipation surrounding this upcoming contest.
The Kedarnath seat fell vacant after Rawat, 68, passed away last month in Dehradun following a severe spinal injury sustained months earlier due to a fall at Omkareshwar Temple in Ukhimath.
With the bypoll approaching, state party leaders from both the BJP and Congress recently met with their respective central leadership in preparation.
The Congress’s plans for a Kedarnath Dham Pratishtha Raksha Yatra, scheduled from Har ki Pauri in Haridwar to the Kedarnath Dham, was seen as a strategic move to solidify its position against the BJP. The party had to postpone the yatra, however, due to rain-related disasters in the valley.
The Congress has also seized on the controversy surrounding the proposed construction of a new temple under the name of Kedarnath Dham in Delhi, using it to challenge the BJP. In response to the backlash, particularly after Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami attended the groundbreaking ceremony for the temple, the state Cabinet proposed strict legal measures to prevent the formation of trusts or committees in the name of the Char Dhams and other significant temples in the state.
Come September, ahead of the Kedarnath by-election as well as the state’s civic body polls, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi and party president Mallikarjun Kharge are expected to visit Uttarakhand to rally party workers.
The BJP has dismissed the prospect of the proposed visit boosting the Congress, with state president Mahendra Bhatt confidently stating that the Kedarnath seat was and will remain with the BJP.
Neither the BJP nor the Congress has been able to establish consistent dominance in the Kedarnath seat, with the two parties alternately securing victories. Notably, Independent candidates have played a significant role, often securing a substantial portion of the vote, as seen in the 2017 elections, where they finished second and third, pushing the national party candidates into lower positions.
The recurring candidacies of Asha Nautiyal and Rawat have shaped Kedarnath’s political landscape. Nautiyal won for the BJP in 2002 and 2007, while Rawat triumphed in 2012 as a Congress candidate.
However, in 2016, a year before the Assembly elections, Rawat, along with eight other Congress rebels, joined the BJP in a move that contributed to the downfall of Chief Minister Harish Rawat’s government. This led to the state being placed under President’s Rule.
In the 2017 elections, Shaila Rani Rawat was fielded by the BJP, replacing Nautiyal, who contested as an Independent. In a tightly contested race, Congress candidate Manoj Rawat won, with Independent candidates Kuldeep Singh Rawat and Nautiyal finishing second and third, respectively. Shaila Rani Rawat, who had switched from Congress to BJP, finished in fourth place.
In the 2022 election, Shaila Rani Rawat made a comeback, defeating Independent candidate Kuldeep Singh Rawat by over 8,000 votes, with Congress candidate Manoj Rawat finishing close behind in third place.
According to BJP sources, the party is considering a ticket for a family member of Shaila Rani Rawat or Nautiyal, and retired Colonel Ajay Kothiyal, a former AAP CM candidate now with the BJP, may also be considered.
Despite his 2022 loss, Manoj Rawat has stayed active in the constituency and is expected to run again on the Congress ticket. Congress state president Karan Mahara told The Indian Express that 10-12 names are under consideration, and a contestant will be declared based on internal surveys.
Mahara also expressed confidence in the Congress winning the seat, claiming that the people are unhappy with the BJP over the mismanagement of religious tourism and development in the Kedar Valley.
