BJP’s Chhattisgarh challenge has a number: 10% vote lead for Cong in 2018

The 10.1% vote difference between them in 2018 was a huge leap from the usual 3% separating the winner and the runner-up since the state was formed in 2000.

The Congress has also won all the five bypolls held in Chhattisgarh since – including three seats where the sitting MLAs belonged to other parties – taking its tally to 71. The BJP goes in with only 13 sitting MLAs, having lost a seat in a bypoll while another constituency is vacant since an MLA’s death.

The BJP has declared candidates for 85 of the 90 seats already, while the Congress has named 30 candidates, mostly big names and ministers.

FIRST PHASE: NOV 7, 20 SEATS

Of the five states going to elections next month, only Chhattisgarh, with its Maoist problem, is voting in more than one phase.

Of the 20 constituencies voting in the first phase on November 7, eight fall in the Durg division and 12 in Bastar. All these 20 seats, barring former CM Raman Singh’s Rajnandgaon, are held by the Congress.

In 2013 too, the Congress had done better than the BJP in these 20 seats, winning 12 seats to the BJP’s 8.

Hoping to retain its hold, the Congress is stressing on the Baghel government’s hike in MSP coverage to 67 forest produce from 60, apart from that for millets, as well as its funds for developing a religious site for tribals, Devgudi, and organisation of a ‘national tribal dance festival’.

Congress leaders talk of other benefits, for tribals as well as villagers, such as haat bazar bus clinics, higher price for paddy, implementation of PESA (Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, release of tribals arrested in “fake” Maoist cases, and government-run English schools.

The BJP is invoking the communal violence in Kawardha in 2021, as well as alleged religious conversions in Bastar. Party leaders claim gains in Narayanpur and Kondagaon, which have reported incidents of tribal Christians being targeted.

The BJP, which claims to be tough on national security compared to the Congress, accuses the Baghel government of “going slow” on the Maoist issue, as well as on infrastructure development. The death of 10 security personnel in an IED blast in April has been brought up by the BJP, which is also banking on sympathy votes from the killing of four of its leaders by Maoists in Bastar this year.

Corruption is another constant in the BJP attacks against the Baghel government, with several leaders in the CM’s inner circle under investigation in alleged coal and liquor scams.

What is also worrying for the Congress is the proliferation of smaller parties in the run-up to the elections, which might end up splitting the anti-BJP vote. Among the new parties in the fray are the Sarva Adi Dal, formed by Christian tribals who claim to have suffered violence over conversion allegations, and Hamar Raj, a tribal party formed by former Union minister and Congress leader Arvind Netam.

SECOND PHASE: NOV 17, 70 SEATS

These constituencies fall in the Surguja, Bilaspur, Durg and Raipur divisions. In 2018, the Congress won 52 of these 70 seats in its sweep of the polls, reducing the BJP to 15. It was a change from 2013, when the BJP had won 41 of the seats and the Congress 27.

Both Baghel’s seat Patan in Durg and Deputy CM and Congress stalwart T S Singh Deo’s Ambikapur in Surguja will vote in this phase.

In these seats, the Congress is banking on its farmer schemes, unemployment allowance, and promises such as revival of the Old Pension Scheme, and buying of 20 quintals of rice at MSP.

It’s also here that Baghel hopes that his regional and soft-Hindutva card will trump the BJP’s nationalism gambit.

The CM often talks of reviving the ‘Mahatari (Chhattisgarh mother)’ as a state icon; mentions the Ram Van Gaman Tourism Circuit (covering places associated with Lord Ram) organised by his government, as well as renovation of the Kaushalya Mata Temple and celebration of local festivals and sports. The use of Chhattisgarhi language is part of the regional card.

The regional pride issue has taken a new turn following cancellation for varying durations of several passenger trains passing through Chhattisgarh, questioned by the Baghel government and attributed to track revamp by the Centre.

The Congress has managed to put its house in order by accommodating Singh Deo as Deputy CM, and former PCC chief Mohan Markam as minister.

The BJP is invoking Central schemes against the state’s welfare push, alleging poor implementation of the Modi government’s Awas Yojna and Jal Jeevan Mission.

In Bemetara, the party is hoping to cash in on the communal divide, having given a ticket to the father of a youth belonging to the Sahu community killed in April violence. The BJP has also given tickets to two relatives of Dilip Singh Judeo, the late leader known best for his long-running “ghar wapsi” campaign.

The major plank of the BJP again is corruption, including alleged coal and liquor scams, and the Mahadev app charges.

Seeking votes in the name of Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has accused the Congress of treating Chhattisgarh as its ATM, to make money for the party. While the BJP has refrained from projecting a CM face, it hasn’t gone unnoticed that Shah accompanied Raman Singh for his nomination on Monday.

Here too, small parties are in play, like the Aam Aadmi Party, the JCC-J (Janata Congress Chhattisgarh-J), and the Gondwana Gantantra Party that has an alliance with the BSP.

Congress general secretary and Bastar leader Ravi Ghosh said the party was confident as “farmers, labourers, poor and traders are happy with our work because of MSP, bonus on paddy and English schools”. He claims the number of farmers in the state is up.

BJP spokesperson Kedar Gupta claimed anger among tribals due to losses in sale of tendu leaves, and non-payment of scholarship to students in Bastar. “The Naxals in connivance with the government have stopped all development activities, while the conversion of tribals continues unabated,” he said.