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🔴 A silver lining to the dark clouds gathering over Europe is the fact that the two sides have not shut the door on further talks

January 17, 2022 09:46 AM IST First published on: Jan 17, 2022 at 03:57 AM IST

A series of talks in the last week between Russia and the West on European security in Geneva (with the US), Brussels (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) and Vienna (the Organisation of Security and Cooperation that represents the entire Europe) have ended on a note of pessimism. Russian officials declared the talks a failure and Western officials say there is no question of accepting Russia’s demands for an immediate and legally binding ban on NATO’s expansion. Nor is the West ready to give Moscow a free hand in dominating Central Europe, especially Ukraine. The talks began amidst deepening tensions over Ukraine after Russia mobilised more than 1,00,000 soldiers on three sides of their common frontier.

Ukraine has lost part of its territory, Crimea, to Moscow’s annexation in 2014. Kyiv is also angry at Moscow’s establishment of “independent republics” in its eastern regions adjacent to Russia. If Ukraine, historically part of Russia, is turning to the US, NATO, and the European Union for military, political, and economic support, Moscow sees NATO’s security commitment to Kyiv and Ukraine’s absorption into the EU’s orbit as unacceptable threats. Adding to the deep structural divergence is the fear that Russia might make good on its threat to invade Ukraine and trigger a war between Moscow and Kiev, backed by the West. Some in the West have suggested the threatened invasion of Ukraine by Russia has already begun with a cyber-attack on the government websites of Kyiv as part of hybrid warfare. Russian officials say it is Kyiv that is preparing to attack and retake Crimea. US officials have warned that Russia might be planning a false-flag operation to justify its armed aggression against Ukraine.

A silver lining to the dark clouds gathering over Europe is the fact that the two sides have not shut the door on further talks. Another positive development has been last week’s discussion of steps to reduce military tensions and build mutual trust. Although the West can’t give legal guarantees that they will never admit Ukraine into NATO, it has no plans to do so in the near term. Turning the de-facto moratorium into a more formal understanding should not be impossible. Ending the talks now has major downsides for both. A Russian aggression will in fact ensure what Moscow wants to prevent — Ukraine’s membership of NATO. A war with Russia will be terribly costly for the West and divert its energies away from multiple other challenges confronting it, including China. If Russia has no reasons to be a perennial spoiler, the West can gain much by making Moscow a stakeholder in European security.