Written by Gunjan Singh
The global media is abuzz with speculation about the future of Xi Jinping because of his absence from public view between May 21 to June 5. Further intensifying rumours, Xi decided to skip the BRICS summit. Given the opacity that surrounds the functioning of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), such speculation is recurrent. Similar rumours were floated in 2012, exactly a year before he became President, and during the Covid 19 pandemic.
Xi has continued to rule for the last 13 years with a total grip on power. There has been no scope for dissent. Scholars and policymakers have relentlessly tried to get a peek into Xi Jinping’s thoughts. Xi has been very clear about his idea of China and the CCP. He has consistently pushed for centralised control. He has totally abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s dictum, “Hide your strength and bide your time”. Xi has also purged a large number of opponents via the anti-corruption drive, targeting “tigers and flies” alike. His current absence follows the removal of top Chinese military leadership.
The inner workings of the CCP continue to be elusive, even more so under Xi. Even after decades of globalisation, the world fails to understand the CCP and its leadership. Recall Bill Clinton’s optimism after the introduction of the internet to China and the hope of it moving towards political freedom. He famously stated that trying to control the internet would be equivalent to “nailing Jell-O to the wall”. But the CCP has done it.
Xi Jinping’s absence could be due to something as mundane as a health issue, something which Chinese leaders do not like to make public, as it is perceived as a show of weakness, which can lead to instability. But he could just as well be taking time for strategy and policy. Before his historic 1992 Southern Tour, Deng Xiaoping had totally withdrawn himself from the public eye. This was after Tiananmen Square and the global backlash that followed.
Xi is facing a number of challenges domestically as well as internationally. The growth rate is low, and unemployment is rising. The ongoing trade war has continued to aggravate the domestic situation. He chaired a meeting on June 30 of a 24-member politburo committee, which supposedly reviewed “new regulations on the party’s institution”. What these are will only be clear once the CCP decides to make it public.
The party runs the country, and Xi Jinping runs the party, at least. With more than 100 million members by the end of 2024, the CCP is the second-largest political party in the world. China is one of the few countries in the world in which the communist party, albeit with an iron hand, has thrived in the 21st century. It has lifted millions out of poverty and made China the economic and military powerhouse that it is today. All this is not only due to centralised command but also because of its ability to adapt. With this backdrop, speculating too much about Xi’s control over matters just because of his absence is bound to be a lazy, inaccurate analysis.
The writer is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University
