The evolution of human civilisation is intrinsically linked to the use of metals. Around 7,000 years ago, civilisation made a great leap from the Neolithic Age to the Chalcolithic Age. Subsequently, it grew more advanced as it moved to the Bronze Age and then the Iron Age. In more recent times, epochs have not necessarily been named after metals or their source — minerals that occur under the surface. But eras have been defined by them. Coal powered the first industrial revolution of the 19th and early 20th centuries. Oil and its derivatives fuelled the second industrial revolution (think cars and planes), and global prosperity in the second half of the 20th century. Now, the long 21st century is going to be the critical minerals age.
In a way, it already is. The president of the world’s largest economy has put critical minerals at the core of his foreign and domestic agenda. The reason Donald Trump wants to “annex” Canada and Greenland is to have control over their vast mineral wealth. The only reason he is remotely interested in solving the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the potential for the US to access Ukraine’s rich mineral resources. At home, Trump is opening up vast tracts of federal land — previously on no-go lists — for mineral exploration on a fast-track basis, cutting approvals time from a year to less than a month. Minerals have also taken centre-stage in the global trade war. China is using its disproportionate control over rare earth materials to threaten the US and the rest of the world with the debilitating consequences of restricted supply.
Twenty or even 10 years ago, the thought of critical minerals or rare earths being at the centre of global conflict, whether geopolitical or geoeconomic, would not have been taken very seriously. The only natural resource that figured in the context of international security and strategy was oil. Since then, two things have happened. First, a growing consciousness about climate change. Second, technological advancement towards a fourth industrial revolution.
The technologies that help mitigate climate change — by enabling a substitution of fossil fuels like coal and oil — are heavily mineral-intensive. An electric vehicle uses six times the minerals a conventional vehicle does, largely because its battery is made of lithium, cobalt and nickel. Renewable energy infrastructure for solar and wind power is also mineral-intensive. For example, an offshore wind infrastructure project consumes nine times the minerals that a conventional power plant would.
The fourth industrial revolution, which involves AI, robotics and big data, is also mineral-intensive. For example, any digital or digital connectivity infrastructure requires copper in large quantities. Copper is critical because of its electrical conductivity. Data centres, the backbone of big data and AI, consume a lot of copper. They also consume large amounts of energy. To mitigate climate change, a lot of this needs to be sourced from renewable sources. There are several other examples of the mineral intensity of emerging technologies. As the adoption of these technologies grows, the demand-supply gap of critical minerals will grow.
The biggest risk to the emerging landscape is the heavy concentration in the supply of critical minerals, much greater than the concentration in oil. There are two stages of the value chain that are of concern. First, the extraction of the metal ore from the surface. Second, the processing of that ore into usable metal. There is a high degree of concentration in the first. Cobalt comes almost exclusively from Congo. Indonesia dominates the mining of nickel, almost 50 per cent of the global supply. China alone accounts for two-thirds of global rare earths mining. Australia, Chile and China account for a majority of lithium mining. In processing, there is complete dominance across the board by just one country, China. Sixty-six per cent of the processing of critical minerals (also including copper and aluminium) takes place in China. For rare earths, this goes up to more than 90 per cent. China alone can bring the global EV industry to a halt by restricting the supply of rare earths. It is happening right at this moment.
Neither the US nor India can rely on China. It is time to emulate America’s policies and fast track the exploration of critical minerals. India remains under-explored for all minerals. This state of affairs is no longer an option, especially if India is to become a serious player in manufacturing. It is near-impossible to secure mineral supply chains from overseas — even the US is struggling. As a country that is geologically rich, India must explore within.
The author is chief economist, Vedanta Ltd
