A Just transition is one of the dominant themes at the ongoing climate COP in Belém, Brazil — the 30th such meeting, marking a whole generation that has come of age since the Brundtland Commission first called for “our common future”. Those who were young then are now the decision-makers shaping the global response to climate change. Nowhere does this generational reckoning resonate more deeply than in the Global South, where nations face the dual challenge of accelerating the shift away from fossil fuel-based energy systems while safeguarding energy security amid worsening climate impacts.
The expected peak of coal demand around 2045 provides a critical two-decade window for India to prepare for the social and economic consequences of declining coal use. This period must be utilised to establish new industries and employment opportunities that can absorb the workforce likely to be made redundant from the fossil fuel sector. If policymakers and planners delay action, the burden of adjustment will disproportionately fall on future generations, who will inherit not only an unstable labour market but also the compounded environmental costs of prolonged fossil fuel dependence.
The meaningful participation of the younger generation in the economies of India’s coal-dependent regions is constrained by a complex set of economic, social, and institutional challenges. Foremost among these is the entrenched generational reliance on coal for livelihoods, which risks widespread unemployment and income loss as demand declines post-2045. Limited educational opportunities and persistent skill mismatches further hinder the ability to transition into emerging sectors. The lack of alternative livelihood options exacerbates outmigration, unemployment, and social vulnerabilities, often leaving communities with weakened social cohesion behind. Confronted with diminishing prospects in their home regions, youth face the psychological burden of uncertainty in transitioning economies. These socioeconomic strains are compounded by ecological degradation from mining — air pollution, groundwater degradation, and depletion. Without forward-looking policies investing in human capital and sustainable industries, these regions risk passing both economic insecurity and environmental degradation to the next generation.
Addressing job displacement, skill gaps, and ecological degradation requires strategic investments. While past COPs failed to deliver adequate finance for the Global South, COP30 offers a critical opening. It is a chance to create a just transition fund that channels the vision and urgency of today’s youth into inclusive, low-carbon, and climate-resilient development.
The writers are research associates, TERI, New Delhi
