That the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is a perennial political survivor is now a foregone conclusion. With his multiple flip-flops in the past decade, he has become a laughing stock in some circles. However, there are two ways of analysing Kumar’s political adventures. In one version, Kumar is “Palturam” and is not to be taken seriously. He is no longer the “Sushashan Babu” and his schizophrenic behaviour is both a cause and consequence of fast depleting political capital. In the second version, he is a shrewd political operator who is trying to maximise gains against the emerging realities of Bihar and national politics.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) precipitated a crisis for Kumar via Chirag Paswan in the run-up to 2020 assembly elections. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) contested only on the seats in which Janata Dal (United) was a contender. However, for a leader diminished in electoral strength and personal popularity, Kumar has, since then, managed to achieve a fair bit. He extracted sweet revenge by splitting LJP, patched up with former colleagues Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi, yet keeping them at some distance. He then joined hands with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in 2022 when there were rumours of his one-time lieutenant RCP Singh hobnobbing with the BJP. He hoped for a larger national role and rallied to bring multiple Opposition parties to form a bloc against the BJP, and managed to conduct the caste survey in the state despite several roadblocks.
No matter which version you choose to relate with Kumar, one must remember that it is not easy to remain relevant despite diminishing electoral strength. It is his political position that provides him the cushion to keep jumping the fence every few years with so much ease. Since 2013, both the BJP and the RJD have tried many tricks to make Kumar irrelevant in Bihar politics, yet no electoral majority in the state could have been imagined without him in the past three decades.
What prompted Kumar’s u-turn this time? It seems that he was miffed at being pushed to the margins in both national and state politics. Or, given that the BJP is now the front-runner in the Lok Sabha elections, he felt that there no longer remains any point in staying with the Opposition alliance. The recent removal of JD(U) president Lalan Singh (rumoured to be getting close to the RJD leadership) signalled the impending changes in state politics.
While it is difficult to pin-point the reasons, it is important to understand the implications of this move on Bihar and national politics in the run-up to the 2024 elections.
First, the impact largely depends on the negotiations under which Kumar has decided to shift allegiance. Only a handful are likely to know the details. The deal will very much depend on how willing both parties are to honour the commitments, which in power politics is shaped by their assessment of the emerging situation, and each other’s strength. As of now, it is clear that the BJP and the RJD are two poles in Bihar politics, and no broad social coalition can be imagined without Kumar.
Second, it is true that any challenge to the BJP’s ability to form the next national government depends on the party’s performance in Uttar Pradesh (and in states where it is in direct contest with the Congress). If the BJP’s performance in north and west India remains as it was in 2014 and 2019, then the party would be in striking distance of power. It doesn’t matter much what happens in the remaining states then. In that sense, Bihar becomes important, where the chances of the BJP winning more seats than 2019 was difficult. It could have actually lost a few seats. With JD(U) joining the NDA, the chances of the BJP increasing its tally in the state has increased.
Third, as the results from 2019 and 2009 confirms, the JD(U), too, has benefitted in Lok Sabha elections by aligning with the BJP. It did very poorly in 2014, when the party contested alone. There is no point speculating about the next assembly elections in Bihar at this point as it is almost 18 months away. But Kumar possibly sensed the odds increasing in favour of the BJP post assembly election results in December 2023 — even women voters are now more likely to vote for the BJP than ever before. After all, he was one of the first movers to carefully nurture this constituency through various policies since 2005. Survey data indicates that Kumar carries the women vote with him only when he contests with the BJP, and not with the RJD. Women voted more for the BJP-JD(U) combine in 2019 and 2020, but not in 2015, when JD (U) contested with the RJD.
Fourth, Kumar’s decision to join forces with the BJP further dents the Opposition’s hope of using the demand for a nation-wide caste census as an issue. Though the chances of this platform yielding electoral benefits to the Congress was slim, it had not stopped the party from campaigning on this issue in the recent round of assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chattisgarh. Furthermore, the data from Bihar Caste Survey has shown that the EBCs are numerically large, and that Yadavs seem to have benefitted the maximum from government programmes such as the OBC reservation. In that sense, the survey has given Kumar a better bargaining position than what he had a few years ago. The Modi government’s decision to confer Bharat Ratna to Karpoori Thakur should be seen as part of this emerging politics in which Kumar wants to be the sole claimant of Karpoori’s legacy.
Finally, Kumar’s politics of the last decade holds an important lesson. Political parties that are completely dependent on a single face, do not have a large social base or organisational resources, are likely to get squeezed as politics become polarised. The BSP in Uttar Pradesh, and JD(S) in Karnataka are examples of this emerging phenomenon. This politics, perhaps in slow motion, is playing out in Maharashtra, too. As for now, Nitish Kumar remains the median of Bihar politics. He is as much needed by the BJP and the RJD as he needs them to remain in power.
The author is fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi. Views are personal
