Prime Minister Imran Khan’s loss in the no-confidence motion may have been the first in Pakistan’s history. But that fact may not be as significant as what has been reiterated about the political stability of elected regimes: No elected regime in Islamabad has managed to complete its tenure since the formation of the country.
Khan, who has had a remarkable political journey in a short period, became the prime minister in 2018. He has been instrumental in single-handedly building the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). From just one seat in parliament in 2002, his party increased its tally to 116 in the 2018 elections. By holding agitations on an anti-corruption agenda, he created a new support base. His campaigns reached out to the young educated people and he successfully projected the PTI as an alternative third force capable of bringing change from the feudalistic and dynastic rule of the past. However, the 2018 elections were questioned for their fairness. It is strongly believed that he came to power due to the political engineering by the military establishment.
Khan’s tenure in office was a difficult one. He came to power at a time when Pakistan faced serious economic challenges — it was on the verge of a balance of payments crisis. Foreign exchange reserves were very low. The high trade deficit adversely affected the current account deficit and foreign currency reserves. Pakistan’s total external debt and liabilities have since gone up to $91 billion, 31 per cent of the GDP. Even then he continued to make populist promises like creating 10 million jobs within five years, constructing five million houses for the homeless and so on. His idea of an Islamic welfare state also required big public spending on health and education. But Khan had no pragmatic economic policy. He showed a superficial understanding of the problems faced by Pakistan. His economic mismanagement created enormous hardships for the people. The poor state of the economy diminished his popularity. There are also contradictions in his worldview. His populism has been punctured by the hard realities of governance.
Eventually, it was Imran Khan’s relationship with the military and the Opposition that was instrumental in his fall. His standoff with the military over the appointment of a new ISI chief and differences over foreign policy issues created a rift with the military establishment. In the face of Pakistan’s difficult challenges, Khan was not able to build consensual politics of any kind and carry the Opposition along with him. He resorted to demagoguery to undermine the Opposition. The military has taken a neutral stand in the Opposition’s attempt to constitutionally unseat Khan. Whether Khan and the PTI will remain a formidable force in Pakistan’s politics is difficult to predict. While it is still believed that he has popular support, how he will fare in electoral politics without the support of the military is not clear. Given his self-image and ego, will he be able to rebuild bridges with the military? Can he reach out to sections in the Opposition, which is necessary in coalition politics? We must remember that the 2018 mandate was probably not reflective of the PTI’s actual popular support.
Questions have been raised about the role of the military in the current political crisis. Is this a sign of the military retreating from politics? While the military still remains dominant in the power structure in Pakistan, it is increasingly becoming clear that it is unlikely to seize power again. Pakistan has become a difficult country to govern. Even if the military does not wield power directly, it remains the final arbiter in Pakistan’s politics as the 2018 general elections had shown. Years of social and political engineering have unleashed forces in Pakistan that have created structural incapacities to address social, economic and security challenges. Neither the political class nor the military has solutions to these problems.
The vision of a Naya Pakistan lies shattered. It is back to the old Pakistan with its intermittent political instability, difficult economic challenges and a military that will not allow the political class to govern. The challenges for the new prime minister will be no different. He has to deal with these structural issues. There is not much light at the end of the tunnel. The military might take a back seat for some time, but it will ensure that it is able to decide outcomes. The political class will have to get its act together to ensure that governance is the main agenda of the political regimes. Pakistan needs a major reorientation in its politics and foreign policy. It has to set its relations with external powers and its neighbours right. Cutting off support to religious militants and improving relations with India will be helpful in dealing with its economic challenges.
This column first appeared in the print edition on April 11, 2022 under the title ‘Failing the test’. The writer is a Professor and Officiating Director of the Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, Delhi
