The Congress party has begun to lose steam. “What’s so new about that? remarked a political wag in response to that statement. The party had gathered momentum in June 2024 when it nearly doubled the seats it held in the 17th Lok Sabha — from 52 to 99. More importantly, the BJP was down to 240, below the majority figure, and had to form a government with the help of allies. Even though 99 in a house of 543 is hardly a figure to celebrate, it signalled a growing ground-level sentiment in Congress’s favour. Suddenly, there was adrenaline coursing through Congress’s veins. Rahul Gandhi became the Leader of the Opposition and took on Narendra Modi aggressively. A more confident Opposition faced an uncertain ruling party still to come to terms with the setback suffered in the general elections.
Then came Congress’s defeat in Haryana. Though it won 37 out of 90 seats, its vote share was only one per cent less than that of the BJP. The result surprised many, including those in the BJP. Whether it was the anti-Jat consolidation in reaction to the Jat dominance many feared with BS Hooda calling the shots in ticket distribution, or the factional war in Congress, or the large number of rebels in the fray, the defeat in Haryana was of the party’s own making.
It was Maharashtra that stunned the Congress — and its allies, the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and the Shiv Sena (UBT). Only four months earlier, they (the Maha Vikas Aghadi) had won 30 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats. While Haryana and Maharashtra demoralised Congress, it’s Delhi that has robbed it of the momentum it had acquired in mid-2024. In Delhi, Congress ended up drawing a blank for the third time and lost its deposit in 60 out of 70 constituencies. Delhi has also highlighted the confusion that prevails in Congress about the path it should walk. Should it go it alone, and build its organisation? Or should it move in step with its allies in the INDIA bloc to defeat the BJP first?
In Delhi, Congress decided to go it alone — Kejriwal did not opt for an alliance, possibly in retaliation to Congress’s refusal to tie up with AAP in Haryana. Both parties suffered. In 13 seats, AAP candidates lost by fewer votes than the number polled by Congress. With Congress’s 6.35 per cent vote (2 per cent more than last time) and AAP’s 43.6 per cent, the two could have combined to garner half the votes polled. Of course, one plus one does not make for two in politics. But in this case, there was a good chance of consolidating the votes of Muslims and Dalits — the support base of both parties.
While celebrating AAP’s downfall, Congress forgot that this defeat is also a huge setback for it and the Opposition. The BJP’s victory goes to strengthen — not weaken — the party’s grip over the country. Many in Congress bought the line that AAP’s demise is the only way for Congress’s revival, for AAP has grown at Congress’s expense.
While this is true, the converse need not necessarily be the way things play out. Of the 10 per cent vote share lost by AAP this time, Congress got an additional vote of only 2 per cent — and no seats — and the BJP mopped up the rest, and moved from eight to 48 seats.
Congress, once an umbrella party, failed to reach out to the middle class. Besides the Dalits and the minorities, the middle class was Congress’s mainstay during Sheila Dikshit’s stewardship of Delhi between 1998 and 2013. It also brought Congress to power at the Centre for the second time in 2009, thanks to the urban seats the party won. But this time, Congress leaders kept talking mechanically about the “caste census” and the “Constitution”. They were not addressing the aspirational Dilliwallas who sought more than “freebies” — they wanted a modern capital where they could breathe easily, drink clean water, go to work without navigating potholed roads and not be compelled to live near mounds of uncleared waste.
Talk to Congress workers, including those who fought the recent state elections, and they bemoan the lack of a party organisation in state after state. The PCCs, DCCS and block-level workers, who convert sentiment into votes, are virtually nonexistent. As a result, there is a last-minute choice of candidates and a poll strategy that is hurriedly put in place and unequal to the task — as happened in Delhi.
These missed opportunities have robbed Congress of the momentum it had generated last year. In Maharashtra, its leadership has not yet responded to the offer made by Sharad Pawar during the last Lok Sabha campaign — that regional parties like his could either merge into Congress or associate more closely with the GOP. The return of Congress leaders who had quit the party at different moments would have given Congress a boost after the Lok Sabha elections — and electrified the political atmosphere. But by all accounts, there was “no response from Rahul Gandhi”.
Congress is losing steam not because people do not want it to revive. It is losing steam because it does not have the will to stay the course 24x7x365. The confusion in its ranks — alliance versus going solo — has impacted the INDIA bloc, of which it’s a part.
The writer is contributing editor, The Indian Express
