Myanmar’s strongman General Than Shwe is arriving in India on October 25 on what promises to be an extraordinary visit, with the dictator being feted by a democratically elected prime minister in the Capital and then taken to Bangalore to show off India’s cutting-edge achievements. But the General’s visit is both an acknowledgement and a vindication of New Delhi’s aspirations in its near east, considering how Yangon has usually bent backwards to woo its bigger, northern neighbour, China. The visit is also an expression of the new government’s determination to pursue a ‘‘pragmatic’’ foreign policy, alongside nobler sentiments expressed by none other than External Affairs Minister K Natwar Singh in his first press conference. At the time, Singh had said that India was determined ‘‘to do more’’ with Burmese rebel leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been incarcerated by Than Shwe’s military junta for long periods of time. Clearly, Singh was remembering the good old days when Suu Kyi’s father was a good friend of Jawaharlal Nehru.
Interestingly, Singh had eight years ago also attended the first international convention calling for the restoration of democracy in Burma, organised by none other than the irrepressible George Fernandes in 1996. Coincidentally, a week before Than Shwe’s arrival, Fernandes is hosting the second democratic convention in the Capital. People are coming in from all over the world. And just as Singh in 1996 was an independent Congress leader, and not in government, Fernandes had to hold his pro-Burmese sympathies in check all the time he was defence minister with the BJP. Clearly, being out of power has its advantages too.
Summit off by a foot
The annual summit between India and the European Union, scheduled to have been held in The Hague on October 13-14, has likely been postponed to the first half of November. For a start, Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende—Netherlands currently holds the rotating presidency—had a foot infection and told New Delhi that he would field his number two at the summit. To many in the Capital that sounded a bit too much like last year’s near fiasco when then Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi had dropped out of the Indian summit ostensibly because he had a stomach infection (although some said he was indisposed due to cosmetic surgery). Then, New Delhi had been gallant enough to go ahead, but to have been bitten again for the same reasons? Clearly not, even if a strategic partnership document was supposed to have been signed.
Secondly, the days of the summit coincided exactly with the crucial days of the Maharashtra polls. With the stakes so low, the Prime Minister’s absence from the country was clearly not justified. Everything weighed in favour of staying home.
Back-channels to peace
Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umer Farooq has been openly critical of that school of thought in Pakistan which believes that the Kashmir issue can only be resolved through the barrel of a gun. So when the Mirwaiz travelled to Saudi Arabia a couple of weeks ago, he is believed to have met Pakistani leaders Sardar Qayoom as well as Qazi Hussain Ahmed. It is not clear what transpired at these meetings, but clearly this back-channel is also feeding into the dialogue established between the two national security advisors, J N Dixit and Tariq Aziz. It is now clear that the latter laid the groundwork for the Pevez Musharraf-Manmohan Singh dialogue in New York. So much so that Islamabad, eager to play its part in promising a beautiful new relationship, is believed to have completely changed the draft of President Musharraf’s speech at the UN General Assembly. An earlier draft was bitter and full of invective against India, what emerged was a diplomatic version of sweetness and light. Tariq Aziz had delivered. If the Saudi Arabia meeting is also taken into account, then the road ahead seems a really interesting one.