Delhi Assembly elections: Two more exit polls project BJP sweep; Kejriwal calls them fake

The agency’s exit poll also predicted that the Congres is likely to bag zero to one seat(s), with a vote share of 7% and the same number for ‘others’ but with a lower vote share of 3%.

Today’s Chanakya projections put the BJP’s possible seat tally at 51, plus or minus six seats, the AAP’s at 19 with a similar, six-seat margin of error, and zero to three seats for ‘Others’.

Exit polls are projections made by election survey agencies based on interviews of voters as they come out after casting their votes. These may vary widely from the actual results.

In the 2020 Delhi polls, most exit polls got their predictions wrong.

Exit polls had gone wrong in the Lok Sabha elections and, more recently, in the Haryana Assembly polls as well. The exit polls on Wednesday – which also predicted a sweep for the BJP – were not linked to television channels.

While the BJP has welcomed the exit polls’ projections, the AAP has contended that these had “never been right” when it came to the party.

Reacting to the fresh exit polls, AAP Convenor Arvind Kejriwal, in a post on X, termed the surveys “fake” and having been “conducted with the sole purpose of creating this atmosphere to break” some candidates from the AAP.

Arvind Kejriwal and his family members show their inked fingers after casting votes during Delhi Assembly polls. (Source: @AamAadmiParty/X)

Kejriwal’s post stated, “Some agencies are showing that the abusive party is getting more than 55 seats. In the last two hours, 16 of our candidates have received calls that if they leave AAP and join their party, they will make them ministers and will give Rs 15 crore to each of them. If his party is getting more than 55 seats, then what is the need for him to call our candidates?… But you abusive people, not even one of our men will break down.”
On Wednesday, Matrize predicted a close electoral battle between the AAP and the BJP – projecting 32-37 and 35-40 seats, respectively, for both. The Congress was said to gain between zero to one seat(s).

According to P. Marq, the AAP was likely to get 21-31, the BJP 39-44 and the Congress zero to one; People’s Pulse put the AAP’s likely seat tally between 10-18 seats, 51-60 for the BJP and zero to one for the Congress.

Outside polling booth in CR Park. (Express Photo by Gajendra Yadav)

People’s Insight said the AAP could slip to 25-28 seats, the BJP 40-44 and zero to one seats for the Congress. Poll diary projected the AAP’s seat tally between 18-25, the BJP’s from 42-50 and the Congress between zero to two.

JVC said the AAP’s seat tally could range between 22-31, the BJP’s at 39-45 and the Congress’s between zero to two while Chanakya Strategies put the AAP’s possible number of seats at 25-28 for the AAP, 39-44 to the BJP and two to three seats for the Congress.

Three other agencies, however, predicted the likelihood of the AAP retaining power; these included a poll by Mind Brink Media giving between 44 to 49 seats and the BJP bagging 21 to 25 as well as the Congress with zero to one seats.

According to agency WeePreside, the AAP was likely to get 46 to 52 seats, the BJP 18 to 23 and the Congress zero to one; KK Surveys as Strategies put the AAP’s likely seat tally at 44 and the BJP’s at 26.