El Nino weakening but will continue to impact global weather, says World Meteorological Organisation

The prevailing El Nino conditions peaked during November-January and have been on a decline since then.

“The 2023 – 2024 episode of El Nino has peaked and remains one of the five strongest on record,” the WMO said.

El Nino is the abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is a natural phenomenon wherein sea surface temperatures over this region rise abnormally and this can occur once between two to seven years. The fluctuation in the sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific Ocean is what determines if the condition is an El Nino (warmer than normal), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral or La Nina (cooler than normal).

In the case of El Nino, which typically develops during spring-summer seasons in the northern hemisphere, peaks during the winter before weakening during the subsequent summer thus lasting for nine to thirteen months.

El Nino is known to interfere with global weather and is often linked to extreme weather, like droughts, extended heatwave spells and hot temperature conditions.

The previous El Nino episode during 2015-2016 was one of the strongest on record in recent decades when the sea surface temperatures had risen by 3 degrees Celsius.

According to WMO, the declining El Nino will continue to impact the global weather till mid-2024.

Earlier this month, the Indian weather models, too, predicted the prevalence of El Nino conditions to last till May.

“The ongoing El Nino spell is weakening but will continue during the summer season. El Nino will definitely have an impact on the temperatures recorded over India during the March to May period,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

WMO warned of above-normal temperatures to be recorded in the coming months with potential to influence rainfall patterns. WMO noted that since June last year, the monthly temperatures recorded touched new highs making the latter half of 2023, in particular, warmer.

“2023 has, by far, been the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General, WMO, in the latest statement.