With each passing day of weak rainfall in the Cauvery river basin and each order of the Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA) on releasing water from Karnataka’s reservoirs to Tamil Nadu, tension is growing between political parties in the two states on the water-sharing issue.
The rainfall shortage this monsoon has been nearly 33% — the region has seen the lowest rainfall in August and September in 123 years — and the water stored in the four main Cauvery basin dams stands at 52% of their total capacity. With Tamil Nadu pressuring the CWMA and the courts for its share of water — the water body has passed four orders since August 12 — Cauvery politics is straining at the seams.
From INDIA alliance partners Congres, which is in power in Karnataka, and the DMK, which is in power in Tamil Nadu, to new NDA alliance partners BJP, which is in power at the Centre, and the Janata Dal Secular (JD-S) whose vote base is in the Cauvery basin, all parties are set to feel the strain from the growing tensions.
The conflict over water sharing peaks in years when rainfall is inadequate. The worst violence connected to the water dispute occurred in 1990-’91 when 18 people died in Karnataka during protests against an interim order of the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal for the release of water to Tamil Nadu. That year, the monsoon rainfall (June to September) interior south Karnataka was 35% below normal. Though there has been no violence subsequently on that scale, there have been big protests in Karnataka in 1995, 2002, 2012 and 2016, when the rainfall has been 21%, 22%, 22% and 38% below normal, respectively.
Here is a look at how the dispute this time may play out for the various political entities:
Congress
In power, the Congress has been defensive in its approach. The BJP has blamed this on its national-level alliance with the DMK. Pro-Kannada activists, meanwhile, have accused the government of quietly releasing water to Tamil Nadu without taking the Opposition, farmers, and Kannada groups into confidence.
Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar, who holds the Water Resources portfolio, has pointed out that in each of its four hearings the CWMA has asked the state to release less water than what Tamil Nadu sought. CM Siddaramaiah has let his deputy take the lead on the issue as Shivakumar has high stakes in the Cauvery basin, where farmers are predominantly from the Vokkaliga community, his core support base.
With the JD(S), the Congress’s main opponent in the Cauvery basin, now allied with the BJP, Shivakumar’s handling of the crisis is under close scrutiny. The Opposition parties held a joint protest this week attended by former CMs B S Yediyurappa of the BJP and H D Kumaraswamy of the JD(S).
“Karnataka should have pre-empted the TN move to approach the CWMA for its share of water and should have brought on record the poor monsoon rainfall in the state. The state approached the CWMA to explain its situation only after it had already released some water. Moreover, there hasn’t been any consultation with the affected parties before the release of water,” said a government official.
BJP
The BJP is keenly watching the water crisis. The orders of the CWMA to continue releasing water to Tamil Nadu, including a backlog, is helping the party paint it as the failure of the Congress to protect the state’s interests. Former CM Basavaraj Bommai and MP Tejaswi Surya have targeted the government’s handling of the crisis and accused it of failing to effectively argue the state’s case.
However, the BJP has also faced criticism from the Congress for failing to seek Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s intervention and get him to mediate.
BJP Rajya Sabha MP from Karnataka Lahar Singh Siroya, meanwhile, has written to Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin, asking him to meet Siddaramaiah to discuss the situation. “More can be achieved in one such meeting than by seeking the help of the central government or the courts,” Siroya wrote.
JD(S)
The JD(S) is the most likely to gain from the Congress appearing to be acquiescing to Tamil Nadu on account of the INDIA alliance.
The regional party, which has traditionally taken a conciliatory approach to the Cauvery issue, has followed a two-pronged strategy this year. While former CM H D Kumaraswamy has called the successive orders for the release of water to Tamil Nadu “a grave injustice”, his father and former PM H D Deve Gowda has written to PM Modi seeking a panel of experts to study the water situation.
Pro-Kannada and farmer groups
The crisis has revived pro-Kannada groups such as the Karnataka Rakshana Vedike and the Kannada Chalavali Vatal Paksha (KCVP), which in recent years had slipped into obscurity for the lack of major state issues in their domain. In the last week of September, two separate groups of farmer leaders and pro-Kannada activists called two bands, one statewide and one only in Bengaluru.
Ahead of the September 28 bandh, Vatal Nagaraj, the KCVP leader who has returned from political obscurity, said, “What will be the effect if the water supply to Bengaluru stops for a day, or even half a day? Is there no need to protest, demanding protection of our drinking water needs? If the water supply stops, the people themselves will come to the streets to protest. This bandh is for the people, for drinking water, and for farmers. It’s not restricted to one region, but to the whole state … Yes, there is an SC order, but if the KRS dam is dry to the bone, how can water be given? … This injustice has been going on since 1924 and it is not new.”