In BJP, a sense of urgency prevails as Oppn unites, a feeling that 2024 will be different

* The country will put its faith in this government again in 2024 … desh tijori ki chabi vapas unke mata ji (referring to Rahul and Sonia Gandhi) ke haath mein nahin dega (people won’t hand back the keys of the country’s treasury to his mother): Smriti Irani

Speakers from the BJP, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, repeatedly asserted in their speeches during the no-confidence motion debate in the Lok Sabha last week that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to return to power in the 2024 general elections. The public posturing apart, how confident is the party about a comfortable return to power at the Centre for a third straight term?

Other than the no-confidence motion, which the Opposition said it moved to make the Prime Minister break his “maun vrat (vow of silence)” on Manipur — a move Modi that said bodes well for the BJP’s comeback — the Monsoon Session was marked by another significant political move. Modi met MPs belonging to the NDA in batches, shared a meal with them, and gave them his “vijay mantra (key to success)” as they prepare for the big battle.

The BJP’s last-minute rush with its legislative agenda amid the pandemonium and acrimonious scenes in Parliament also indicated a political urgency. Apart from the 23 Bills Parliament passed — including the long-awaited Digital Personal Data Protection Bill and the contentious Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Bill — Union Home Minister Amit Shah surprised Parliament and the nation by introducing three Bills to overhaul India’s criminal justice system, replacing the over 160 years old rules. According to sources, the government may come up with more pathbreaking legislation in the Winter Session, including the Women’s Reservation Bill that is being seen as a game changer. Known for its meticulous planning and preparedness, accounting for all possibilities, the BJP certainly does not want to leave anything to chance.

The party is aware of the disadvantages it faces as it seeks the mandate for a third consecutive term. Disillusionment is building up in the backdrop of inflation and the general economic situation, while the “there-is-no-alternative argument” is weakening as Opposition parties join hands, burying their political and ideological differences. Anti-incumbency would have spoiled the BJP’s smooth return in 2019 had it not been for Balakot and the nationalistic fervour it triggered just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP’s strategists are cognizant of the fact that at least two of the key planks of its populist agenda that brought Modi to power in 2014 and 2019 may have lost their sheen. They say the party’s campaign against corruption, no matter how forcefully it is pushed, will not have the same impact as the party had to make political compromises in some states to maintain its dominance.

“The party’s anti-corruption campaign got a deep dent after we joined hands with parties such as NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) and Ajit Pawar. Our anti-corruption campaign won’t have the credibility it had in the last two elections. The criticism that central agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate are selective and haunts only the Opposition is sticking to us,” admitted a senior BJP leader. In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, one of the major campaign points for the BJP was the alleged Rs 70,000-crore irrigation scam during the tenure of the Congress-NCP government.

Also, the freshness factor that Modi and the BJP had in the last two elections could give way to boredom and fatigue, at least among the fence-sitters. What remains for the BJP is the stability factor. The BJP still has Modi as a decisive and strong leader who can provide stability. However, the party’s strategists admit that the coming together of the Opposition could hurt its prospects in some key states. This explains the vicious attack that top BJP leaders have unleashed on the INDIA bloc.

BJP’s position in some key states

In West Bengal, where the party scored an unprecedented victory by winning 18 of 42 parliamentary seats in 2019, the BJP pinned its hopes on the division of minority votes so that it could consolidate its numbers against the Trinamool Congress (TMC).

But sensing an erosion in her Muslim vote base — the Indian Secular Front (ISF) made gains in Muslim pockets in last month’s panchayat elections, winning 325 gram panchayats, 10 panchayat samitis, and a zila parishad — TMC chief Mamata Banerjee agreed to join the INDIA bloc. Her decision to join hands with the Congress and the Left has the potential to dash the BJP’s hopes in West Bengal.

BJP leaders say that with Rahul Gandhi emerging as the most prominent anti-Modi leader, the Congress could have the edge in consolidating minority votes for the Opposition across India. The formation of the INDIA bloc and its repeated appearance as a united front could help each constituent expand its voter base in their respective states. The BJP’s absolute dominance at the national level and its “ruthless unleashing of central agencies against the opposition” could give these parties a reason to bind together and fight a desperate fight, according to some functionaries of the ruling party.

In contrast, not many of the 38 NDA parties feel the same sort of desperation to see the BJP continue to be in power. “There is a threat of some of the allies being passive. For example, in Tamil Nadu, BJP’s key ally AIADMK may not be as forceful for the BJP as the DMK does for the INDIA bloc in the general election,” admitted a BJP leader.

In Karnataka, the BJP had a determined B S Yediyurappa on its side in 2019. This propelled Modi and the BJP to victory in 25 of the 28 parliamentary constituencies in the southern state. Yediyurappa had lost the chief minister’s post after six days in May 2018 as both the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) came together to keep the BJP out of power. Yediyurappa returned to power in Karnataka a few weeks after the Modi-led government took oath at the Centre in 2019. But at present, months after the Congress took Karnataka in a landslide victory, neither the former CM nor the so-far-headless state BJP has that drive to retain the BJP’s 25 seats.

While the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) still has not ceded much space to the BJP in Andhra Pradesh, the Modi-led party’s initial surge in Telangana appears to be facing serious pushback from the Congress that appears to be emerging as the more credible choice for minorities and Dalits apart from those opposed to the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) of Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao.

The Manipur violence in which churches were targeted and destroyed has become a major setback for the BJP’s attempts to reach out to the minority community in Kerala. The Congress and the Left have been pushing to “expose” the BJP in the state. Hibi Eden was the only Congress MP from Kerala who participated in the no-confidence motion debate and focussed on this in his speech on the floor of the House.

“In Kerala, BJP leaders are visiting house to house, meeting the Catholic bishops, meeting people and giving cakes on Easter but on the other hand they are attacking the churches and Christians in this country. They say sabka saath sabka viswas (together, development for all) but this government is with whom?” he asked.

In Odisha, the BJP has been patiently waiting to see the charisma of CM Naveen Patnaik and the Biju Janata Dal’s (BJD) stronghold weakening. The party was making some forward too, with leaders such as Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan and MP Aparajita Sarangi directly taking on Patnaik and the BJD. However, the BJD’s decision to support the BJP on the Delhi services Bill and in the no-trust vote seems to have taken the wind out of the BJP’s sail in the eastern state and could hurt the party’s attempts to consolidate the anti-BJD votes.

In Gujarat, the AAP and the Congress have surprised the BJP by announcing a tie-up — a move that could take away a few seats from the BJP in its bastion. The party wants to compensate for these losses through gains in Uttar Pradesh where it is working hard to stitch together a coalition with smaller parties including the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Jayant Chaudhary.

BJP leaders admit that the outcome of the coming state elections will be significant for the party. If the party manages to win at least three of the five states — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Mizoram — the party’s ride in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be smooth. But, as of now, their task is cut out, say party leaders.