On November 20, Kalvakuntla Kavitha, TRS leader and daughter of Telangana Chief had told The Indian Express: “You may hear many leaders claiming that the fight here is tight.. but you wait. On the counting day, you will see the silent wave in favour of KCR… That’s what my father says always.”
The leads in Telangana indicate Kavitha was right. So was KCR, who took a decision to dissolve the Assembly nine months ahead of its tenure to go for early elections. It was a decision much-criticised, termed as arrogance and as paving way for a prospective alliance with the BJP.
The TRS, which has been riding on the goodwill created by an array of populist measures, had also, interestingly, shown signs of worry during the campaign. Instead of relying on the welfare schemes or the sops initiated by the KCR-led government, TRS leaders were heard talking more about the “Telangana pride” and other emotive issues, which were interpreted as signs of nervousness.
In fact, TRS insiders and sources also privately talked about a tight fight — one source even said party’s internal surveys showed TRS would barely reach its tally of 60 in the 2014 elections. However, on the ground, voters appeared more confident. The populist measures have touched almost every section and those who were out of the beneficiary list were upset, but not so to vote out KCR. The first lot wanted to continue enjoying them and the second was ready to wait and hopeful that they would also come within. Besides, the voters did not appear to be in a mood to ditch the man who fought the creation of the state in its first election after its formation in June 2014.
The only section that predicted the fall or decline of the TRS was the activists, political observers as well as the Opposition.
But it seems even KCR had some apprehension about an anti-incumbency factor against his own MLAs in their respective constituencies as he has repeated almost all sitting legislators. He was also worried about the rebels and those disguntled leaders in his own party, he was concerned about the exit of the leaders like Konda Vishweshwar Reddy, who quit the party accusing the TRS of functioning like a one-man party, and joined the Congress during the campaign.
KCR’s comments including the one he made a week ago, where he asked voters not to hand over the reins of the state to the Opposition alliance and evoked Telangana pride calling the Opposition alliance Delhi slaves, hinted that he was not so confident about the “silent wave” his daughter had attributed to him.
While the goodwill created by the welfare schemes helped TRS keep its support base intact, the Telangana pride evoked repeatedly by KCR apparently worked against the Congress-led Mahakutami. KCR has succeeded in creating this doubts in the minds of the voters – that the Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, who had opposed separate statehood for Telangana runs the show for the Congress and the Telangana Jana Samiti (TJS) and the CPI. KCR, his son K T Rama Rao and Kavitha kept talking about how Congress leaders first flew to Amaravati to show the list of candidates to Naidu before releasing the candidates name for Telangana. “Today, the Congress seeks his permission to field candidates, it’s fine, because they are going to lose. But if tomorrow… will all Congress policies be dictated by Naidu? He is fundamentally against the interests of Telangana,” Kavitha asked during an interview with The Indian Express.
Even if the Congress was leading the alliance in terms of numbers and the TDP has fought only in 14, despite winning 15 in the state in 2014, leaving 93 for the Congress, eight for TJS and three for CPI, the fight looked like it was between TRS and the TDP in Telangana. By making it so, TRS succeeded in its strategy to make it a clean sweep for the party.
If Telangana result is an indicator to the trends in the south, the party that has to be worried now is the BJP. The BJP has to seriously think about its strategies in the south. In Telangana, the BJP, which had five in the outgoing Assembly, has not been able to make much difference in its fortunes there. Another interesting point in Telangana was the missing “Modi factor” or a goodwill towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Voters in Telangana did not appear to be impressed by Narendra Modi’s rule in four and a half years. As the BJP leadership strategises to retain power in 2019, the south seems to be a real tough task for it ahead of the next big electoral test.
