Could India be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine?

The Global South refers to the developing and less developed countries in Latin America, Asia, Africa and Oceania. Jaishankar said this region is “feeling the pain acutely” due to food, fertiliser and fuel shortages.

“As Prime Minister Modi conveyed to President Putin in Samarkand in September, this is not an era of war. The global economy is simply too inter-dependent for a significant conflict anywhere not to have major consequences elsewhere. We are seeing a conflict that is coming on top of severe stresses created by two years of Covid. The Global South, especially, is feeling this pain very acutely. India, therefore, strongly advocates a return to dialogue and diplomacy. We are clearly on the side of peace, respect for international law and support for the UN Charter,” he said.

Jaishankar’s Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov did not address the issue, but appreciated India’s position on the Ukraine situation.

From New Delhi’s point of view, it has once again conveyed its disapproval of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, without condemning Russian actions explicitly. India’s position that the respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of states is an essential element of the international order has been perceived as a euphemism for New Delhi conveying to Moscow that it has violated these basic norms.

Indian officials point out that though New Delhi has abstained at UN votes, it is different from China and other countries that abstained — it has taken a clear position on respect for the UN Charter and international order.

As India has walked the diplomatic tightrope in the last eight months, many in South Block believe it has gained credibility on both sides by not parroting the talking points of either.

An Indian mediating role?

This has led to a perception that India is positioning itself as a neutral player that can mediate between the two warring sides.

The fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had at least five phone conversations with President Vladimir Putin and at least three phone calls with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is indication that New Delhi has communication channels with both sides. Modi has also spoken with US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Mexico had suggested that Modi, Pope Francis and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres mediate the Russia-Ukraine crisis, but there has been no progress on the proposal. Guterres has, however, reached out to India for help in defusing the crisis.

In September this year, Jaishankar disclosed that India had “weighed in” with Russia on grain shipment from ports in the Black Sea.

Taking questions with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken by his side, Jaishankar said, “I remain in very active touch with a lot of my colleagues. Just as an example, during the grain shipment discussions in the Black Sea. At that time, we had been approached to weigh in with Russia at a particularly delicate moment, which we did,” he said.

Jaishankar had also said that, “I had a meeting with the Prime Minister of Ukraine. He did mention some very specific concerns… they thought we could be of some use. I had, on a different set of issues, discussions with the UN Secretary General… So it’s not necessarily the overarching peace… but even in the current scenario, other issues which we can solve or in some way mitigate or ameliorate. I don’t think I can be too specific.”

India is concerned over the rising oil price amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is “breaking our back,” Jaishankar said.

In Moscow this week, he again offered help with issues including food grains and fertiliser shipments, and support for any initiative that de-risks the global economy.

Four questions to consider

For India to be a mediator, four key questions need to be answered.

* First is the bandwidth. India needs to have an understanding of the dynamics within Russia and Ukraine, and Russia and the European players, including Russia’s neighbours Moldova, Finland, and Poland. The dynamic between Ukraine and European partners also has to be understood well. And, of course, what Russia wants in the end, and what are the shared interests of NATO, Europe and the US.

* Second will be the question of experience in negotiating amid a global crisis. Indian diplomats have effectively negotiated in bilateral and multilateral formats, but negotiating in a crisis is a different question. In the early 1950s, India had played a role throughout the Korean War, proposing the creation of a commission to facilitate the repatriation of prisoners. Despite initial resistance from China and Russia, India’s resolution was accepted in December 1952 at the UN General Assembly, and the Neutral Nations Repatriation Committee was set up with India at the helm.

In recent decades, India has sought to mediate in affairs closer home, but has burnt its fingers — like in Sri Lanka when it was going through a civil war.

* The third question will be the risk-taking ability of the Indian establishment. While New Delhi has been audacious about risky manoeuvres in its immediate region, such as the surgical strikes in Pakistan and Myanmar, inserting itself into a geopolitical crisis of this magnitude is very different. Especially in a situation where, as a broker of peace, there is no guarantee of a win.

* Fourth is the question of credibility, which India feels it has gained by walking the tightrope. But some in the West may view India as closer to Russia. Also, both Ukraine and Russia have to agree to Delhi having the credibility to be the mediator.

A crucial bilateral relationship

India has made it clear that Jaishankar’s visit was a bilateral affair. While the minister gave out a full list of possible deliverables in the India-Russia context — nuclear, space, defence, energy, connectivity, Afghanistan, terrorism, Iran, among others — he was most articulate on the issue of energy. Faced with criticism for buying Russian oil at discounted prices, he made it clear that India would continue to do so to cater to the needs of its citizens.

What Jaishankar did not articulate is that India has strategic stakes in defence ties with Russia. And that a closer Russia-China strategic embrace is detrimental to India’s interests, given the US-China rivalry.

As former foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale says in a new book, Strategic Challenges: India in 2030, “India might become a frontline state in the 21st century rivalry between China and America, in a manner similar to what western Europe faced during the era of Soviet American competition.”

In this context, India needs Moscow to keep its defence supplies going strongly with India, and not share sensitive technologies with China.

National Security Advisory Board chairman PS Raghavan, a former Indian ambassador to Russia, says in the same book, “Putin has said that Russia does not transfer to any other country the military technologies shared with India. This is an assurance that India must constantly verify in respect of the weaponry and technologies that Moscow supplies to Beijing, as also the nature of their intelligence-sharing arrangements.”

With 60,000 troops in a border standoff along the India-China border, this is a relevant bilateral ask from India’s strategic perspective.