UK Elections: Why Rishi Sunak-led Conservatives are likely to lose

The UK has been mired in economic turmoil since it voted to leave the European Union in 2016.

Currently, the biggest concern for voters is their deteriorating living standards. While the rate of inflation fell to 2% in May after peaking at 11.1% in October 2022, real wages have continued to decline, and food prices remain 20% above the levels seen in July 2021.

This has made the outgoing Conservative government the first in modern British history to leave the British people worse off than before — household disposable incomes are poised to go down by 0.9% between 2019 and the end of 2024, according to a report by think tank Resolution Foundation. A record number of citizens now rely on food stamps.

All this as public spending has seen constant cuts during the Tories’ 14 years in power. The famed National Health Service (NHS) is in a shambles with very long wait times and falling numbers of general practitioners; pensions have failed to keep up with inflation; and public housing is literally falling apart.

Tory party in disarray

Brexit has also been followed by political uncertainty. It cost Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who opposed Brexit, his job. Four other Conservative Prime Ministers have followed, none of whom have lasted for more than 38 months in power.

* Liz Truss, Sunak’s predecessor in 10 Downing Street, the official residence of the British Prime Minister, resigned on October 20, 2022 after only 49 days in office and a disastrous mini-budget. The budget came at a time when prices and energy costs were soaring, and the UK was seen as entering into recession. Truss’s unrealistic ‘Growth Plan’, funded by a series of tax cuts, left economists bewildered and her party spooked.

* Before Truss, Boris Johnson left office in a blizzard of scandals, including the infamous ‘Partygate’, in which he and other Conservative Party members were caught partying during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, while Britain was under severe restrictions on large gatherings. Partygate was seen as the last straw in Johnson’s three years at Number 10, during which he faced allegations of cronyism and corruption, from accepting freebies and favours from rich Tory donors to lying about his actions in Parliament.

* Johnson had succeeded Theresa May on July 24, 2019, after Britain’s second woman Prime Minister failed to finalise a workable plan for Brexit. Pro-Brexit May came to power after Cameron in 2016, with the promise of chalking out a beneficial Brexit agreement with the EU.

* The current Prime Minister, Sunak, has failed to right the sinking Tory ship. Making illegal immigration his pet issue, he has tried in vain to shift the narrative from Conservative corruption and economic mismanagement.

His policy of sending undocumented immigrants to Rwanda has been seen by many Britons as inhumane, and given the opposition Labour plenty of ammunition to attack him. Sunak reneging on the UK’s climate promises has also been exploited by Labour.

In May, Sunak called for early elections, after some improvements on the economic front. But the Tory campaign has failed to impress. A record number of Conservative MPs have decided not to run, and many have changed parties.

Labour’s plan for ‘change’

In the run-up to the election, Labour leader Starmer has promised to be the agent of change that Britain needs. He has said the first mission of his government would be to boost economic growth.

According to Labour’s manifesto, the party will establish a National Wealth Fund, capitalised with $9.2 billion, which aims to attract three pounds of private investment for every pound of public money to support growth and clean energy.

Labour has vowed to not raise taxes “for working people”. There will be no increase in the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, National Insurance, or VAT. Corporation tax will be capped at the current level of 25%.

Starmer has also claimed he will resolve issues with the NHS, by adding 40,000 more appointments every week, incentivising staff to carry out extra appointments out-of-hours, and using the “spare capacity” in the private sector. He has promised to recruit an additional 8,500 new staff to treat children and adults.

While Starmer has been a vocal critic of Sunak’s immigration policy, he too has promised to bring down net migration by introducing visa restrictions, training workers in sectors where there is domestic scarcity, and increasing border security. Labour has promised to scrap Sunak’s Rwanda policy.

Labour has promised it will set up state-owned Great British Energy, backed by $10.5 billion, and partner with “energy companies, local authorities, and co-operatives to install thousands of clean power projects, through a combination of onshore wind, solar, and hydropower projects”. Starmer has said he will expand clean energy by doubling onshore wind, tripling solar power, and quadrupling offshore wind by 2030.

Labour ‘selling its soul’

Despite Starmer’s tall claims, critics have said he has “sold Labour’s soul” in a bid to make the party more electable. They say that Starmer is a man without an ideology, who will do “anything” to make Labour more electable.

Under Starmer, the party has moved to the centre of the political spectrum, abandoning much of its leftist, working class traditions.

Starmer replaced leftist Jeremy Corbyn in 2020. His campaign for Labour leadership floated a set of “10 pledges”, which included reviewing arms sales, taxing the rich, and bringing utilities under state ownership. Since becoming the party leader, Starmer has abandoned most of these promises. He has also faced huge backlash for his pro-Israel position amidst the current conflict in Gaza.

Starmer’s actions have alienated a section of Labour’s left wing. Former Labour stalwarts like Corbyn are standing for elections as Independents. The Left’s place is now occupied by Tory turncoats like pro-Brexit Natalie Elphicke.

Many have compared Starmer to former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, who brought Labour to power in 1997 after 18 years of Tory rule. Blair too “reformed” the party to become “more pragmatic”. But unlike Blair, who at his peak had record public ratings, public opinion of Starmer remains, and is likely to remain, lukewarm.