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Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and the Bangladesh Army will be forming the interim government with the help of political parties.
Hasina vacated her residence in Dhaka and left the country for an undisclosed location in India, as protesters came out on the streets of Dhaka defying curfew orders.
In a televised address, the Bangladesh Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman said they will be forming the interim government with the help of political parties.
Within hours of people pouring out on the streets with sticks, protesters were seen entering the Prime Minister’s official residence in Dhaka.
The scenes were similar to the ones seen in Afghanistan in 2021 and Sri Lanka in 2022 — in these countries too, the leader had left for safer locations. While the circumstances and motivations in Bangladesh are very different from those two countries, there will be an inevitable sense of deja vu.
The situation is extremely fluid, and these are a few preliminary takeaways.
FIRST, the situation in Bangladesh:
The country has been reeling under protests for the last month over the job quota system, and the protests had been the biggest since Hasina was re-elected for the fourth consecutive term since 2008.
She had led the country through economic growth but had also cracked down on the Opposition, media and the civil society.
This had made her unpopular, and the youth coming out on the streets was the tipping point. Her departure poses a challenge for Bangladesh’s economy, which is yet to recover from the Covid pandemic and is slated to become a developing economy in the next couple of years.
SECOND, what does her exit mean for India?
Her departure after a 17-year tenure means that India has lost a trusted partner in the region. Hasina has been a friend to India, and New Delhi has worked closely with her on countering terrorist groups operating out of Bangladesh.
The partnership brought the two countries closer together, and New Delhi had given aid and assistance to Dhaka for a range of projects.
THIRD, New Delhi has been naturally supportive towards her.
By being careful with its comments and insisting that the weeks of turmoil in Bangladesh was its internal matter, New Delhi has given her tacit support — her openly undemocratic ways notwithstanding.
The West has been questioning Hasina’s crackdown against civil society, the opposition, and the media, and has been calling for an end to her authoritarian style of functioning. India’s backing of her, despite allegations of rigging in elections, has been a bone of contention between India and the West.
FOURTH, it follows that New Delhi will now be working to insulate itself from her unpopularity.
If she does land in India, it would mean New Delhi will have to work towards ensuring her safety, and would face some questions from the new regime in Dhaka about giving refuge to an unpopular leader.
There is a real risk of blowback from the Bangladeshi people as well — during the years of Awami League rule, the Bangladeshi opposition has viewed India as backing Hasina, and the West as being on their side.
FIFTH, New Delhi will be concerned about who will be in power in Dhaka now.
What attitude they will take towards India will be critical. In the past, when Opposition parties led by BNP-Jamaat or the Army have ruled the country, India has had an unpleasant experience — with anti-India terror outfits operating across the India-Bangladesh border.
This situation could well arise again, and New Delhi cannot afford to have another front open when the LoC and the border with Pakistan is hot again, and the Indian Army is in a long standoff with the PLA in eastern Ladakh. The Myanmar border is also extremely volatile, and the source of unrest and strife in India’s Northeast.
SIXTH, the role of the Army Chief will be crucial.
Ahead of his address to the nation, General Waker held a meeting at the military headquarters, at which two important leaders of the main opposition Jatiya Party were invited, according to the Bangladeshi daily Prothom Alo.
The Jatiya Party was formed by a retired chief of the Bangladesh Army, General Hussain Mohammed Ershad, in 1986. As Army chief, Gen Ershad had seized power through a coup d’état in 1982, and ruled as chief martial law administrator until December 1983.
