With Bihar caste survey, how Nitish Kumar hit two targets in one fell swoop

According to the data, the EBCs constitute the biggest vote block with a population of 36.01%, followed by 27.12% OBCs, of whom 14.26% are Yadavs, the single-largest social group. Dalits, according to the data, constitute over 19.65% of Bihar’s population against 15% recorded by the 2011 Census. The EBC and OBC data also include Pasmanda Muslims.

Notably, it was Nitish who created the political constituencies of EBCs and Mahadalits to compensate for the inadequate numbers of his own caste, Kurmis, who the survey has enumerated to be around 3% of the population. This social engineering, achieved in his first term itself, held Nitish in good stead politically for over a decade. As his social base once again shows signs of drifting away, the caste survey could be used as a glue to keep his flock together.

“Rahul Gandhi is today going around the country speaking about caste census. But Nitish Kumar raised it three years ago, followed it up with action, fought a court battle and got it done. As the champion of the extremely backward castes and non-Yadav OBCs, it puts him leaps ahead of other leaders in the Hindi heartland. This message is not just going to impact Bihar but even percolate to UP in the context of the 2024 polls,” said a senior leader of the Janata Dal (United), the CM’s party.

According to the functionary, during the first INDIA meeting in Patna in June, Nitish Kumar said caste census should become one of the key agendas of the alliance and asked for the bloc to announce that if INDIA wins the parliamentary elections it would conduct a caste census. But the Trinamool Congress (TMC) expressed reservations at the time, the leader said. “Eventually it was accepted in the coordination meeting held at Sharad Pawar’s house (last month),” he said.

Bihar’s Minister for Water Resources Sanjay Kumar Jha of the JD(U) said the survey findings had demonstrated the CM’s “forward-thinking approach”.

“Regardless of political rhetoric, the reality is that these findings will serve as a crucial tool in tailoring our policies to cater to the diverse needs and aspirations of various castes and classes. In Bihar, targeted interventions through customized policies have significantly improved the lives of millions. We applaud our leader for paving the way, and we reiterate our commitment to conducting a pan-India caste census in 2024 if our government gets power at the Centre,” Jha said.

The survey data’s release also holds significance in light of Nitish’s depleting strength in the state. In the last Assembly polls, though the JD(U)-BJP combine won the polls, the tally of Nitish’s party fell to 43 from 71 constituencies in the 2015 elections. The BJP with 74 seats became the senior partner in the alliance. Now with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which has 75 constituencies, he is again CM with far fewer seats than its partner.

“While Nitish Kumar’s political importance in the state is on the wane, he continues to command anywhere between 5-7% votes entirely on his own. Whichever way he swings could significantly benefit that alliance. He will naturally claim credit for the caste survey and it may even shore up his importance. But these polls are not going to be fought on just the caste survey. Price rise and unemployment are the issues,” said an RJD leader.

Former Bihar Deputy CM Sushil Kumar Modi said, “When this decision was taken, we were part of the government. This is actually our baby. Conversely, in the women’s reservation Bill, everyone knows what has been RJD’s historical role.”

A senior BJP leader said the survey numbers did not throw any surprising data as political parties had always attributed similar numbers to the castes in their internal calculations. “As of now, caste census is not an issue among the people. It may be politically used to demand greater reservation for OBCs and EBCs. That can make it an electoral issue. In Bihar, EBCs have a reservation of 20% in panchayat elections. There has been a demand for increasing it and BJP supports it. The one thing it will show though is that Nitish Kumar always knows how to remain politically relevant,” he said.

Unlike a few months ago, Nitish is not among the prime movers in the INDIA alliance at present and Rahul Gandhi has turned caste census into a national issue ahead of a crucial series of Assembly elections. Of late, the Bihar CM has taken divergent lines on some key issues picked by the INDIA alliance. But with the survey results out, Nitish may yet find himself back again in the thick of things in the Opposition bloc and underscore his continued political relevance.