Telangana polls: With rising vote share between 2014, 2018, KCR has dominated state so far

Over the years, the TDP has gradually withdrawn from Telangana, focusing instead on Andhra in its new configuration. Notably, KCR founded the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (or TRS, as the BRS was known then) as a breakaway faction from the TDP in 2001 but remained a minor player or a junior partner of the Congress until Telangana became a separate state. The YSR Congress Party, which split from the Congress in 2011 and contested in Telangana-based seats in 2014, withdrew completely from the state by the 2018 polls and is now the ruling party in Andhra Pradesh.

Here’s how parties have performed in recent Assembly polls in Telangana:

Parties and past three polls

While the TRS was only a minor party in unified Andhra Pradesh, winning 26 seats in its debut election in 2004 and 10 in 2009, it has become the dominant party in Telangana now. Its vote share, too, has been rising.

In contrast, while the Congress vote share rose between 2014 and 2018, its seat tally fell marginally. The state hasn’t had a Congress government since Kiran Kumar Reddy was the CM of unified Andhra in 2014, though the state has had non-Congress governments only four times since Independence.

Reddy has since joined the BJP, which has struggled to make any significant headway into the state.

2009 polls

In 2009, Telangana was still a part of Andhra Pradesh. But an analysis of the constituencies that are now in Telangana shows the Congress and the TDP were the dominant parties, winning 50 and 39 seats, respectively. At 33.1%, this poll saw the Congress win its highest vote share among the three most recent elections. The TRS, contesting in just its second poll as a party, managed 10 seats and just under 10% of the vote share. Had Telangana been a separate state in 2009, no party would have had the necessary seats to form the government, though a Congress-TRS alliance would have hit the 60-seat majority mark. In 2004, the TRS had been a member of the Congress-led alliance.

While the BJP managed just two seats, including one in Hyderabad, and 5.3% of the votes, the AIMIM won all its seven seats in Hyderabad with 2.1% of the overall vote.

Of the 19 Scheduled Caste (SC) seats in Telangana, the Congress won 10, TDP 2 and TRS 2. Of the 12 Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats, the Congress won 6 and TDP 5.

2014 polls

The 2014 Assembly polls were conducted for unified Andhra Pradesh and held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha elections. The results were announced in May 2014, and less than a month later, Telangana officially became a state.

KCR became the first CM of Telangana, with his party winning a majority of the seats by a narrow margin. While a nationwide anti-Congress and pro-BJP wave saw the saffron party come to power at the Centre, Telangana was among the outliers. Compared to its 2009 performance, the Congress lost out considerably to the TRS rather than the BJP, as was the case in many other states, both at the Lok Sabha and Assembly levels.

The TRS won 63 Assembly seats and 11 of the state’s 17 Lok Sabha seats. Its Assembly vote share more than tripled compared to 2009, rising to 34%. The Congress was reduced to 21 Assembly and 2 Lok Sabha seats, and its Assembly vote share was down by 8% points to 25%. While both TDP and YSRCP contested in Telangana this time, they had become relatively minor players in the new state. The BJP only marginally improved its vote share to 7% and managed to win 5 seats, of which four were in the Hyderabad region. The AIMIM contested more seats this time – up to 20 from 8 in 2009 – it won 7 seats again, all in Hyderabad.

In the reserved seats, the TRS won 13 SC and 5 ST constituencies, and the Congress won 4 SC and 2 ST constituencies. The YSRCP won all its three seats in ST constituencies.

2018 polls

In 2018, the KCR government called for elections more than nine months ahead of schedule, breaking the state’s synchronicity with the Lok Sabha polls.

The TRS extended its seat and vote share margins, comfortably winning a majority with 88 seats and 47% of the vote, despite an Opposition alliance of the Congress, the Left and other minor parties. Its vote share increased by almost 13% points, as the TDP contested just 13 seats and won 2 along the border with Andhra, and the YSRCP decided against contesting in the state altogether.

Though the Congress increased its vote share by more than 3% points to 28.3%, it won two fewer seats than in 2014 and was largely restricted to the western part of the state. The BJP won four fewer seats than in 2014 in the absence of simultaneous elections. Its only seat was in the Hyderabad region, which was again dominated by the AIMIM with alliance partner TRS increasing its tally here by six seats.

The TRS improved its SC seat tally to 16, with the Congress winning two. In ST seats, both the TRS and Congress won five each.

Several big Opposition names lost in these polls. From the Congress, aside from several former MPs, Muslim leader Mohammed Shabbir Ali, former state unit president J Geeta Reddy, and TDP defector and sitting state unit president Revanth Reddy were among those who lost. Two of the BJP’s key faces, G Kishan Reddy and Bandi Sanjay Kumar, lost to TRS candidates. Reddy is now a Union minister in the Narendra Modi government and the state unit chief and Kumar is now a BJP national general secretary.

2019 Lok Sabha polls

The TRS maintained its dominance in the Lok Sabha polls too, winning 11 of the 17 Telangana seats. The BJP’s LS performance was much better than in the Assembly polls, winning 4 seats while the Congress managed 3 despite having a much higher vote share than the BJP. AIMIM chief Owaisi won the Hyderabad seat, where the party is dominant across state and national elections.