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Journalism of Courage
Until 1990, Rajasthan politics was entirely dominated by the Congress, barring a Janata Party victory in 1977. The BJP won the 1990 election, but its tenure was cut short by a year-long stint under President’s Rule imposed after the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992 and the ensuing communal violence.
In 1993, the BJP returned to power and completed its first full term in the state. Since then, no party has been able to beat anti-incumbency to win consecutive Assembly elections in Rajasthan.
The state sees bipolar contests between the BJP and Congress, with no other party able to come anywhere close to power. There have been challenges — from the Uttar Pradesh-based Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP), regular if largely unsuccessful contenders, to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) more recently.
In vote share terms, recent elections have been closely matched, barring the BJP’s landslide win in 2013. The BJP, though, has won by larger seat- and vote-share margins than the Congress, suggesting that the saffron party manages to retain pockets of influence from election to election, but not enough to win consecutive polls.
2003 polls
With 120 seats and 39.2% of the vote share, the BJP won a comfortable majority in the 200-member Assembly, ousting the Congress led by then first-time Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. It was a huge rise from 1998, when it had won just 33 seats despite 33% of the votes. Vasundhara Raje became the CM for the first time in 2003.
The Congress, having won 153 seats with 45% of the vote share in 1998, was reduced to 56 seats and 35.7% of the votes in 2003.
Of the 33 Scheduled Caste (SC) seats, the BJP won 26 and the Congress 5 in 2003. Of the 24 Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats, the BJP won 15 and the Congress 5.
2008 polls
No party won an outright majority, though the Congress emerged as the single-largest with 96 seats compared to the BJP’s 78. The Congress’s vote share was 2.5% points higher than the BJP, but it only won 18 more seats.
The Raje government was unable to retain power, with the Congress wresting 58 of the 120 seats the BJP had won in 2003.
The BJP struggled in tribal seats, winning just 2 of 25, while the Congress won 16. It was a narrower contest in SC seats, with 18 going to the Congress and 14 to the BJP.
2013 polls
The incumbent Congress suffered a resounding defeat, with the BJP winning 163 seats – the highest seat tally since 1977, when the Assembly size was set at 200 members. It exceeded the previous record high of 153 seats, set by the Congress in 1998.
The BJP vote share rose from 2008 by almost 11% points to 45.2%. This was largely at the cost of minor parties and Independents, with the Congress vote share dropping only by less than 4%, to 33.1%. Its tally of 21 seats was the lowest in the state’s history.
While Gehlot retained his Sardarpura seat, among the prominent Congress leaders who lost were then state unit vice-president Udai Lal Anjana, former Leader of Opposition Hemaram Choudhary, and ministers Parsadi Lal Meena and Rajendra Singh Gudha.
The BJP nearly swept the reserved seats, winning 32 SC and 18 ST seats. The Congress failed to win any SC seat though it won 4 ST seats.
2018 polls
The BJP followed its record-breaking 2013 win with a comparatively dismal performance, with its seat tally more than halved to 73. A resurgent Congress won 100 seats and formed the government with support from the BSP’s 6 MLAs.
But in vote share terms, the Congress edged out the BJP by just 0.5%, the narrowest margin of victory since 1993. The BJP vote share fell by 6.4% and the Congress’s rose by 6.2% from 2013.
Outside the Mewar region where the BJP was dominant, the Congress outperformed its rival in the state’s other regions.
Raje won her fourth consecutive election from Jhalawar but several ministers lost, including Public Works Minister Yunus Khan, who lost to current Deputy CM Sachin Pilot, Revenue Minister Amara Singh, and former Lok Sabha MP Sonaram Choudhary, who had quit the Congress ahead of the 2014 general elections.
In the reserved constituencies, while the BJP won 12 SC and 9 ST seats, the Congress had a narrow lead with 19 SC and 12 ST seats.
2019 Lok Sabha polls
Despite its loss in the 2018 Assembly polls, the BJP won all but one of the 25 LS seats a year later, with 59.1% of the vote share. Then NDA ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party won the remaining seat. The Congress got 34.6% of the votes, but no LS seat.
