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Journalism of Courage
AFTER having swept to power five years ago in a massive victory, silencing naysayers who doubted whether he could replicate his father in popularity, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and YSRCP president Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy is facing what he calls his battle of Kurukshetra.
“The people of Andhra will play the role of Krishna, whereas I will play the role of Arjun. I am contesting the election alone against the anti-poor capitalist partners of the NDA,” he says at every public meeting, pitching his contest against the TDP-led alliance as a “class war” between the rich and poor, with him the messiah of the masses with his welfare schemes.
All the state’s Lok Sabha and Assembly seats will vote simultaneously on May 13. In 2019, the YSRCP had won 151 of the 175 Assembly seats, with a vote share of 49.95%, reducing the TDP to 23 seats and 39.17% votes. The JanaSena Party (JSP), which contested in alliance with the BSP and Left, won one seat and got 5.53% votes. The Congress got a mere 1.17% of the votes, and 0 seats.
The YSRCP had also swept the Lok Sabha polls, winning 22 of the 25 seats (49.89% of the votes), with the TDP winning three (40.19%).ress
Just over six months ago, Jagan started his campaign with the confidence of the 2019 result behind him, as the TDP looked lacklustre. “Why not 175?’’ was his slogan as he exhorted leaders and cadre to try to win all the Assembly seats in the state.
However, that got a reality check after the TDP, BJP and JSP managed to forge an alliance. Consequently, Jagan changed his focus to battling anti-incumbency, with party candidates who were seen as vulnerable dropped. Now, a quarter of the YSRCP’s sitting MLAs have either been dropped or their constituencies changed, while among MPs, only 6 of 22 have been repeated.
When defections and resignations followed, Jagan set off on a 22-day state-wide bus tour, with the YSRCP ensuring live telecast of the adulation showered on him by his followers. Like Jagan’s earlier yatras which earned him political dividends, this one too hit its mark, at least in stealing the limelight away from the newly formed NDA alliance.
In rural areas, Jagan also holds on to his main vote bank of SCs, STs and backward classes. In urban constituencies, issues like unemployment, lack of investment, and the general sluggish pace of development weigh heavily on voters’ minds.
Haribabu, 34, a seed and fertiliser seller at Nandigama, on the outskirts of Vijayawada, says: “The Jagan government’s DBT (direct benefit transfer) has helped poor and downtrodden families immensely.’’
As for candidate changes and whether that is worrying, YSRCP supporters such as Haribabu say they don’t vote for the person fielded by the party, but its symbol, a fan.
The rural-urban divide
The rural-urban split also holds true in Kuppam, TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu’s home turf. The Jagan government has ensured saturation coverage of its schemes here, apart from generous funding to local municipalities and launch of several civic projects.
Naidu has been representing the Kuppam seat since 1989. But in the 2019 elections, his vote share for the first time slipped below 60%, to 55.18%. Though still substantial, it was bad optics for the veteran TDP leader, who is also facing questions over his flip-flops when it comes to the BJP, which kept him hanging for a long time before agreeing to an alliance.
As part of the tie-up, while the TDP is contesting 144 Assembly seats, the JSP is fighting 21 and the BJP 10. In the Lok Sabha, the break-up is 17, 2 and 6, respectively.
The TDP hopes to corner Jagan over jobs and development – and to avoid the narrative of welfare schemes. The most visible failure of a grand project under the YSRCP government is its still-born – and poorly-conceived – idea of three capitals.
Jagan had halted Naidu’s grand reinvention of Amaravati as the Andhra capital after coming to power. In a move seen as dictated by the desire to deny Naidu the chance of leaving such a legacy, the Jagan government had announced that the state would instead have three capitals – Amaravati as the legislative capital, Visakhapatnam the administrative one, and Kurnool as the judicial capital.
However, with the matter stuck in courts, no progress has been made towards it. Says a Vijayawada-based industrialist: “Andhra has not received any major industrial projects or investments.”
TDP general secretary N Lokesh Naidu, the son of Chandrababu Naidu, says: “While concentrating on welfare, Jagan did not see the larger picture. The main issues in Andhra today are unemployment and inflation… DBT does not solve poverty.”
In the final leg, the TDP has pulled out a potent arsenal against Jagan. The party has accused the Jagan government of bringing in the Andhra Pradesh Land Titling Act to “grab land”, adding that plots without proper title holdings are being “usurped”. In its manifesto, the NDA has said that it will scrap the Act if it came to power.
On a complaint by the YSRCP on the issue, the Election Commission recently directed that Naidu and Lokesh be booked for spreading “disinformation”.
YSRCP general secretary Sajjala Ramakrishna Reddy says the Act is meant to “eliminate land mafia” and “distribute clear ownership titles”. “The TDP had supported this initiative, but has now turned against it for dirty politics. Naidu is doing this as he is desperate.”
However, the narrative that properties will get entangled in disputes has caught enough traction for Jagan to be left clarifying and defending it at every public meeting.
The family dynamics
With the election poised delicately, community vote is being eyed by all parties. In central and coastal region’s districts such as Krishna, Guntur, Nellore, Prakasam, East Godavari and West Godavari, the backward classes and Kapus are expected to be an important factor.
In 2019, the Kapus were seen as behind Jagan. But this time, JSP leader and actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan, who is a Kapu, is expected to take away a substantial chunk of the community’s vote.
In 2019, of the 55 Assembly seats in Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam and Nellore districts (they were reconstituted in 2022), the YSRCP had won 47. In East Godavari and West Godavari, which had 34 Assembly seats then, the YSRCP had won 27.
In the Rayalaseema region, especially Kadapa district, the home district of the YSR family, the YSRCP may face some backlash now as the party’s sitting Kadapa MP and Jagan’s nephew, Y S Avinash Reddy, is facing charges of murder in the killing of Y S Vivekananda Reddy, also a member of the family. Jagan has given the ticket again to Avinash, a two-time Kadapa MP.
What has further complicated the situation for Jagan is that his sister Y S Sharmila is the Congress candidate from Kadapa. After striving for long to get space in the party controlled firmly by Jagan, Sharmila finally joined the Congress last year.
Now, on one side are Jagan and most of the members of the extended YSR family, while on the other are Sharmila, their mother Vijayamma, and Vivekananda’s daughter Narreddy Sunitha Reddy. Sharmila, who has been drawing huge crowds in her campaign across Andhra, has termed the Kadapa battle as one between “crime” and “justice”.
Apart from the Sharmila effect, the party’s impressive win in neighbouring Telangana last year is expected to help the Congress in Andhra – and hopefully take its vote share up from 1.17% in the 2019 Assembly polls, to somewhere between 4% and 6%.
Andhra PCC leader Mastan Wali said they hoped to open their account for the first time since 2014 in Rayalaseema.
Of the 52 Assembly seats in Rayalaseema, the YSRCP had won 49 in 2019.
In the Andhra districts of Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam, the TDP is seen as ahead of the YSRCP. There is dissent even among beneficiaries of Jagan’s schemes here, with many claiming to have got less than the others, while groups not included in the welfare programmes nursing resentment over it.
In 2019, the YSRCP had won 28 of the 34 Assembly seats in this region.
