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Journalism of Courage
As 24 of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha constituencies complete polling on Monday, five factors are playing out in the key battleground state, that is the key to the fortunes of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition INDIA bloc.
These factors are common across a dozen constituencies, from Purnia and Araria in Seemanchal to Jamui and Bhagalpur in south Bihar to Saran, Siwan, and Samastipur in north Bihar, where The Indian Express travelled.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is one uniform factor across the state, but still not what it was in the previous two parliamentary elections. Dozens of voters in constituencies across Bihar said Modi was still the best choice to run the country but added that his poll messaging now seems predictable and repetitive.
Sanjay Singh, who runs a provision store in Darounda, Siwan, said, “There are many local factors at play, rather than any one factor. After all, roti is always more important than Ram. ‘Bhukhe bhajan na hoi Gopala (you cannot worship god with an empty stomach)’. Let there be more employment opportunities in our backyard.”
Fruit shop owner Bhawan Jha in Rosera, Samastipur said, “Modi gave Hindus a sense of great assertion. I could not have been able to sport a tika during Lalu Prasad’s days … Modi also brought a lot of development. Even a small town like Rosera has too many autorickshaws that cause more traffic jams than any rally can. This also shows that we are progressing.”
Farmer Santosh Kumar in Samastipur’s Hawpur village had a differnt take. ”Modi is not a factor for us. We need an MP whom we can approach for help. It is easy for PM Modi to say that he is contesting from every seat. It is rather undemocratic to say so. We would like an MP who can take care of local issues rather than one who raises nationalistic slogans,” he said.
Women in Bihar are turning out in larger numbers to vote. As per the Election Commission, the difference between the turnout of women and men has ranged from 6 percentage points to 10 percentage points in the first four phases.
One reason for the higher turnout among women in Bihar in the past few elections, including Assembly polls, has been the NDA’s success in creating a “caste-neutral” constituency among women. For Modi, women, along with the poor, farmers, and the youth, are the target group for his welfare schemes. In the PM’s words, women are one of the “four biggest castes”.
BJP ally and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has also built a constituency for the JD(U) among women, with his schemes. This was visible in the 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 Assembly polls, with his bicycle scheme for girls and fee waiver for girls in Class 1 to women pursuing Master’s courses a huge hit. For Modi, his schemes such as free rations are the most popular among women from Dalit and Extremely Backward Class (EBC) communities.
A resident of Bairgachhi village in Purnia, Pano Devi said, “Jiska khayenge usi ko vote denge na (We will vote for one giving us grains).”
In Dalit families, especially households that have no breadwinners, the free ration scheme is popular. However, in the Mahua block in Hajipur Lok Sabha constituency, women in Ravidas settlements said the Modi government’s Ujjwala scheme required revisiting as they were not able to afford LPG refills. “We use LPG on special occasions, especially when guests visit us,” said Rubi Devi, whose husband is a daily wager earning Rs 400 per day.
Leader of the Opposition Tejashwi Yadav is the most high-profile and visible INDIA bloc leader campaigning in Bihar. The 34-year-old is campaigning across the state, and has carried on even after doctors advised him bed rest due to acute pain in his waist and spine. At a recent meeting, the RJD leader displayed his lumbo sacral belt to underline his commitment.
The RJD leader’s campaign pitch has centred around the jobs created during his party’s recent tenure in government — over 4 lakh jobs during the party’s 17-month stint in the government, according to him — gaining traction among voters, especially the youth.
“Tejashwi has been talking about migration and jobs, which are the real issues. We can give examples of several villages where at least five to seven people each have got jobs. Such an employment drive has not happened in the last three decades. Tejashwi is no longer a Yadav leader, he is a true leader,” said Ramesh Kushwaha, a voter in Samastipur’s Ujiyarpur area.
While several young voters said Tejashwi would perform much better in the 2025 Assembly polls, they said a sizable chunk of young voters could end up voting for the RJD in the current elections. Pawan Kumar, who does a part-time job driving passengers around Patna on motorcycles, said, “A total of 37 people have become teachers in my extended family in the last two years. Do I need more reasons to vote for Tejashwi? CM Nitish Kumar had to support the jobs theme of Tejashwi under pressure.”
The RJD has also attempted to carry out deft social engineering by trying to expand its Muslim-Yadav, or M-Y, base to include BAAP, or Bahujan, Agda (upper castes), Aadhi Aabadi (women), and Poor.
While the Opposition alliance has given tickets to seven Kushwaha candidates — attempting to divide the Kurmi-Koeri (Kushwaha) constituency that Nitish has carefully nurtured — it has also tried to break the NDA’s EBC constituency by bringing over the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) headed by EBC Mallah leader Mukesh Sahani. The VIP has fielded three candidates while the Congress has given the Muzaffarpur ticket to BJP rebel Ajay Nishad. In Sheohar, the RJD has fielded OBC Vaishya (otherwise considered a BJP vote bank) by fielding local Vaishya leader Ritu Jaiswal against the JD(U)’s Lovely Anand.
“We have pushed for A to Z politics for making a broader social combination. One can see anst of Kushwahas in many parts of Bihar. There is no Luv-Kush (Kurmi-Koeri) any longer for Nitish Kumar,” said RJD national spokesperson Subodh Kumar Mehta.
In Ujiyarpur, there is popular support for the RJD’s Kushwaha candidate Alok Kumar Mehta who is up against sitting MP and Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai. Sonu Kumar, a resident of Sarairajan in Ujiyarpur, said, “Kushwahas are looking for leaders. We are not the pocket borough of the NDA.”
A major factor in Bihar politics for well over two decades, Nitish has taken a hit following his repeated flip-flops. Across the state, voters criticised the Bihar CM and JD(U) chief over his political decision-making. “Nitish is a pendulum, we cannot trust him. He is done and dusted. Tejashwi is the new-age leader,” said Saran resident Ghulam Mustafa.
But the BJP still believes a solid 13-14% of the votes, mainly EBCs and Dalits, hinge on Nitish. A senior BJP leader said, “Nitish will alone make the difference and give the NDA an advantage. We know that he is past his prime but he will still add to the NDA. There are three sides to every story. Nitish is still the third side. We know he might lose relevance by the 2025 Assembly polls, but he is not done yet. He is down, not yet out.”
