The days running up to polling day in Karimganj look a little different this time, says Shahuddin, 35, who runs a tea shop in Bhanga, halfway between Karimganj town and Silchar. Every evening, he has people gathering at his small tea shop for vigorous discussion on the elections and whom they should vote for – unusual for parliamentary elections, he says.
Habibur Rahaman Choudhury, the editor of the only daily newspaper published from Karimganj, Dainik Nababarta Prasanga, agrees. As Karimganj heads for elections on April 26, one of the five seats in Assam voting in the second phase, Choudhury says: “In all my 65 years, this is the greatest enthusiasm I’m seeing for Lok Sabha elections here.”
One key factor this time is the change in the political playing field. The Karimganj Lok Sabha constituency covers two districts of Assam’s largely Bengali-speaking Barak Valley – Karimganj and Hailakandi. The 2011 Census placed the Muslim population of Karimganj and Hailakandi at 56.36% and 60.31%, respectively. And yet, it has never had a Muslim MP.
Next door to the Bangladesh border, in a region that has for long lived under the cloud of citizenship questions, including the National Register of Citizens (NRC), with the tag of “illegal” lingering over its population on account of both language (Bengali) and religion (Muslim), that may change.
After the drastic changes in Barak Valley following last year’s delimitation exercise, Karimganj is no longer a Scheduled Caste-reserved seat. Instead, Silchar, the Barak Valley’s other Lok Sabha seat, is reserved now.
While the contest in Silchar is widely accepted as being a foregone conclusion for the BJP, in Karimganj – which also has a BJP MP – the dynamics are seen as changed. There are a whopping 24 candidates for the seat, the primary ones being sitting BJP MP Kripanath Mallah, Guwahati High Court senior advocate and former Assam Bar Council chairman Hafiz Rashid Ahmed Choudhury for the Congress, and businessman Sahabul Islam Choudhury for the AIUDF. Of the 21 others, 18 are Independents and three from small parties.
Local leaders of Muslim bodies such as Ahle Sunnat, Nadwatut Tamir and Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind have come out in support of Rashid Choudhury, who is known in the area for his work on citizenship cases, including those excluded by the stalled NRC or tagged as ‘D (doubtful) voters’.
“He is a very good candidate, and he has acceptability across communities. He has been working for 40 years for Bengalis of this area, both Hindus and Muslims,” says Abu Sufiyan, the district president of the influential Jamiat.
The district bar council’s 80-odd advocates, both Hindus and Muslims, are also campaigning for Rashid Choudhury, among them Sishir Dey. He says people in the area have long desired that the seat be “dereserved”, and that different quarters are working to consolidate Muslim voters. “However, Hafiz Rashid Choudhury also holds a position in Assam’s greater civil society. He is not just a representative of Muslims.”
Recognising that to retain Karimnagar, the BJP will need some Muslim votes, apart from the consolidation of Hindus behind it, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has visited the constituency thrice in 20 days – and has been pushing an inclusive pitch.
The BJP’s Northeast face and chief Assam campaigner, Sarma said at a public meeting in South Karimganj on April 18: “The Congress says the BJP works only for Hindus. But haven’t Mulims received Orunodoi (a flagship Assam government scheme)? Do Muslims also get 5 kg of free rice every month or not? Do Muslims have Ayushmaan Bharat cards or not?… Then why does the Congress say that the BJP is ‘Muslim virodhi’?… These communal things are not said by the BJP, but the Congress.”
The CM doesn’t venture into the contentious citizenship territory here, reserving it for Silchar, where the BJP is trying to soothe the fears of Bengali Hindus regarding the NRC.
Abdul Kalam, a tailor from a locality on the outskirts of Karimganj town that is simply called ‘Settlement’, says: “The Chief Minister has repeatedly, openly said many times that the BJP doesn’t need votes of Muslims.” Kalam also talks about the state government’s recent decision to repeal the Assam Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act, on the basis of which marriages were registered under the Muslim personal law in the state.
Sarma, who has often been accused of inflammatory speeches, has also launched campaigns to clear “infiltrators” from government land and against child marriages, linking both openly to the Muslim community.
Kalam says this is why he will vote for Rashid Choudhury. “It has nothing to do with him being a Muslim, but that he is a good lawyer who helps all people.”
But the BJP’s pitch is not entirely without takers among the Muslim community. Abdul Roja, 65, who sells vegetables in Karimganj’s main market, says he supports the BJP. “It is giving us free rice… building houses for the people.”
The Congress’s bigger obstacle might be the fact that its two MLAs from this region, Siddique Ahmed (Karimganj South) and Kamalakhya Dey Purkayastha (Karimganj North), have “extended support” to the Sarma government.
Assam Congress chief Bhupen Borah says the party has suspended both and appealed to the Speaker that they be disqualified. “But the Speaker is a puppet of the CM. And unless the Speaker gives his verdict, we cannot go to court.”
However, Borah claims, this will not hurt the party. “Everybody knows that the two MLAs are betrayers and no one will trust them.”
The Congress is also likely to find its Muslim vote cut into by the AIUDF. “The Congress and BJP are the main players, but it is likely that the AIUDF’s performance will decide the outcome of the election,” says Habibur Choudhury.
In 2019, the BJP’s Mallah had won Karimnagar with a 44.62% vote share, with the AIUDF second with 41% of the votes. The Congress had got just 11.36% of the votes.
In 2014, the AIUDF had won with 40.91% of the votes, the BJP got 29.4%, and the Congress 25.54%.