Israel attack on Iran: what this means for war in West Asia

How did the attacks unfold?

Iranian media reported explosions around the capital Tehran shortly after 2 am local time (4 am in India). Videos uploaded on social media show projectiles (Israeli missiles) raining down on the city and its surrounding areas, as well as intercepting fire by Iranian air defence system.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it is carrying out “precise” airstrikes on Iranian “military targets” at around 2.30 am local time. The strikes were concluded by 6.00 am. According to Israel’s military, three waves of airstrikes were conducted by scores of Israeli fighter-bombers.

What was the extent of damage done?

The IDF has claimed that it hit around 20 targets including Iran’s missile manufacturing facilities, surface-to-air missile storage sites, and other sites of military importance. Notably, it seems that Israeli targets did not include Iran’s sensitive nuclear installations and oil manufacturing facilities.

Iranian authorities said that sites in Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam provinces were targeted, adding that the country’s air defences had “successfully intercepted” the attacks even though “some areas sustained limited damage”. Two Iranian soldiers were reportedly killed in the attacks.

By all early accounts, it seems that Israel’s strikes were more limited than previously feared.

Why did Israel attack Iran?

Iran and Israel have long been at loggerheads. Iran does not acknowledge Israel’s right to exist, and backs a multitude of groups in West Asia that are fighting Israel and its occupation of Palestine. Most notable among these are Hamas and Hezbollah, who Israel is currently at war with.

The Israel-Iran relationship has gone downhill following the October 7 Hamas attacks last year.

On April 1, Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Syria, killing 16 persons including several top commanders from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). On April 13, Iran responded with a direct attack on Israeli soil, utilising as many as 300 missiles and drones. Israel further retailated with a “limited” strike on an Iranian missile defence system in the region of Isfahan.

Things further heated up on July 31, when Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an explosion in Tehran, likely orchestrated by Mossad agents. Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the assasination. Israel further assasinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on September 27, in an attack which also claimed the life of high ranking Iranian official Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan.

Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, in response to the deaths of Haniyeh, Nasrallah, and Niforoushan. This attack inflicted next to no damage.

The latest Israeli airstrikes are in response to this. A senior American administration official said that the US worked with Israel to encourage a “targeted and proportional” response, according to the BBC. The White House has officially deemed the attack to be an “excercise in self-defence”.

What happens now?

Everything rests on how Iran responds. “There is no doubt that Israel will face a proportional reaction for any action it takes,” Iran’s Tasnim news agency said on Saturday, citing sources.

What a proportional response means, however, is unclear. If Iran’s previous actions are anything to go by, it is likely to exercise a degree of restraint, especially in the immediate aftermath of the attack. This is more so because for all the show, the attack seems to have done very little actual damage.

As per the BBC, Iran’s foreign ministry said it was “entitled and obligated to defend itself” but added that Tehran recognises its “responsibilities towards regional peace and security”.

Israel’s attack, too, appears to have been restrained enough to serve as warning but not outright provocation. Israel has targetted Iran’s air defence and missile capabilities, instead of vital infrastructure or the country’s nuclear facilities.