Kurt Campbell, Biden’s Asia czar, moves to State Department: What it means in Washington and New Delhi

The confirmation raises Campbell to one of the most prominent policy and decision-making positions in diplomatic Washington, and points to a late-game reshuffle of President Joe Biden’s Asia policy in an election year, with long term implications for Asian policymakers.

Campbell, known as the Biden Administration’s “Asia czar”, is a veteran of the Washington policy think tank ecosystem, having served as a vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and as CEO and cofounder of the Center for New American Security (CNAS), an organisation that is closely tied with the Democratic Party.

He has been the principal agent driving US initiatives across the Indo-Pacific — such as expanding and operationalising the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to include real programmatic benchmarks; new trilateral US-Korea-Japan cooperative mechanisms; the AUKUS maritime security deal; and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework — while also deepening engagement with key Southeast Asian and Pacific Island partners.

Driving US-India engagement

Campbell has previously stated that while India is not America’s ally, it is “a close partner and will be the United States’ most important bilateral relationship in the 21st century”, and reiterated how firmly India rests at the present and future of US Indo-Pacific Strategy and global diplomatic engagements.

He has long argued for deeper relationships with India as a potential partner, first as the architect of Obama’s Pivot to Asia, and subsequently as a key author of the 2022 National Security Strategy.

Evidence for the rapid deepening of the Indo-American relationship was seen in the many landmark initiatives and meetings over 2023, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington and President Biden’s visit to New Delhi for the G20 Summit. Many American Cabinet Secretaries and prominent officials travelled to India: Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen visited four times in 2023; National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Blinken, and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin have all made trips. Campbell himself has been a frequent flyer.

These visits have delivered tangible outcomes.

The Quad mechanism has gained significant momentum and is increasingly poised to deliver real value in the coming years, and currently enjoys high-level political commitment across Canberra, Tokyo, Washington, and New Delhi.

New strategic initiatives launched in 2023, such as the US-India Initiative on Critical Emerging Technology and Indus-X, lay the ground and cooperative frameworks to deepen public-private partnerships working on critical technologies ranging from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to telecommunications and renewable energy, which have dramatic implications for supply chains, national security, and policy coordination in the future.

Some speedbumps, but clear way ahead

The rapid deepening of Indo-US ties goes beyond just the world of policymakers in Washington and New Delhi. India remains one of the most popular countries in the US, with about 70% of Americans holding positive impressions of the country, according to an annual survey conducted by Gallup. Indians also hold generally positive attitudes towards the US.

India has surpassed China to become the largest sending country of university students to America, with almost 270,000 going to the US in 2022-23. India is the most consistently popular non-treaty partner of the United States, and support for deepening the US-India relationship and expanding economic, technology, and educational relationships remains strong.

There are some bumps in the road — Russia continues to be India’s largest defence provider, the fallout continues from the charges brought against Indian nationals for the alleged attempted assassination of a US citizen in New York, and there are American frustrations with red tape in Indian trade and business policy. But the overall direction is overwhelmingly positive, and appears to be indicative of what is to come.

US policy in an election year

Campbell will take an impressive Rolodex cultivated over decades with him to the State Department, and it is noteworthy that the Biden Administration has announced that they will not hire a replacement for him on the National Security Council. Given Campbell’s knowledge and networks, some partners are worried about retaining access to the White House. Others, mostly Americans, are concerned that his intense focus on Asia and relative lack of exposure to other regional and technical portfolios could present a challenge, especially as military aid bills to Ukraine and Israel continue to fall apart in Congress.

These concerns, while important in the long term, are likely without too much weight. National elections will likely slow policy processes and prevent the launch of new initiatives, and other key figures in the Biden Administration do hold deep expertise on key portfolios like the Middle East and Europe.

A likely reason for Campbell’s appointment is to prepare to migrate Asia policy leadership to the more institutionalised frameworks of the State Department rather than the personalised dynamics of the National Security Council, which is top-heavy and subject to change between administrations.

Indeed, in many respects, Campbell’s coordinator position on the National Security Council — which itself was created in 2021 — and the White House access it afforded will be less important in 2024 as the focus moves from launching strategic initiatives to implementing and integrating them into American bureaucracy and institutions.

Speaking at the Jaipur Literature Festival last week, the US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti said a meeting of the Quad was unlikely before the November 2024 American elections. There have been no public statements regarding follow-on meetings for iCET or Indus-X despite significant momentum following Modi’s State Visit in June 2023. President Biden’s planned visit to New Delhi for the Republic Day celebrations did not work out due to various conflicts and domestic considerations.

As India heads to the polls this spring, it is important to recognize the strategic moment that the confirmation of Kurt Campbell, and the likely recentralisation of Asia policy in the State Department, offers to New Delhi. Should President Biden win re-election, Campbell could be a top pick for Secretary of State or another high-level role.

While a Republican administration would signal Campbell’s departure from government, many of the initiatives and deepening ties that have been spearheaded by the National Security Council, especially on business, defence, and technology development, are likely to continue in the coming years. The strong bipartisan support at Campbell’s confirmation hearing demonstrates the strong support for his achievements and orientations as Biden’s Asia czar.

Nicholas Shafer is a Fulbright Fellow at Ashoka University where he works on US-India relations, the new multilateralism, and critical emerging technologies. A West Asian regional specialist, he has worked both in and outside of the US government, including at USAID, the Meridian International Center, Mercy Corps, and the State Department.