Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon leave 492 dead: What is happening?

Exchanges of fire between Israel and the neighbouring Lebanon have intensified of late. Israel was also believed to have orchestrated attacks involving exploding pagers and walkie-talkies last week in Lebanon, leaving more than 30 people dead.

Since the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023, minor border clashes involving Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Shiite militant group, have occurred. Hezbollah says its actions, such as firing rockets into northern Israel, are in support of the Palestinian cause.

Both Hezbollah and Hamas are backed by Iran, which has long opposed Israel and its military action in the Middle East. Here is what is happening now, why fears of a regional conflict have been raised, and what to know about Hezbollah.

What is happening between Lebanon and Israel?

In late August, Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel, which in turn sent 100 jets towards Lebanon. Hezbollah’s offensive was in retaliation for Israel assassinating Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in July this year. Israel held him responsible for a rocket attack that had killed 12 children and teens in Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, though the group denied its role.

Cross-border attacks have become more high-intensity since then. The Israeli military has now “warned residents in southern and eastern Lebanon to evacuate their homes ahead of a widening air campaign against Hezbollah,” according to an Associated Press report.

“Thousands of Lebanese fled the south, and the main highway out of the southern port city of Sidon was jammed with cars heading toward Beirut,” it said. This has reportedly been the biggest exodus of people here since the 2006 Israel-Hebzollah war.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in a post on X: “I repeat and reiterate: Israel does not seek war. But we have the right and the duty to defend our people.” He shared an animated video depicting houses and buildings in Lebanon storing Hezbollah weapons.

He said, “Thousands and thousands of long range rockets are kept in houses, living rooms, bedrooms, and kitchens, and then launched with the sole intention of killing our people… What nation would accept its citizens living under such a threat from its neighbors?”

A Reuters report cited Israeli Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari as saying, “The sights now from south Lebanon are of secondary explosions of Hezbollah weapons, which are exploding inside houses. In every house we are attacking there are weapons”.

Hezbollah has not commented on the Israeli claims.

Is further escalation likely in the Middle East?

A wider regional conflict playing out, after the ongoing devastation of the Gaza Strip, has long been a concern. Neither side has spoken about an all-out war so far. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to do whatever is necessary so that residents of northern Israel can return to their homes.

Lina Khatib, a Middle East expert at the think tank Chatham House, told AP, “Though tensions are flaring, the situation in southern Lebanon is not that of a full-scale war as both Hezbollah and Israel hope to use limited means to pressure one another.”

The attacks are also being seen as a pressure tactic, where Hezbollah wants Israel to come to a deal with Hamas and cease its military offensive in Gaza. More than 42,000 people have been killed in Gaza since October 7, according to its health ministry. On the other hand, Israel has far superior military capabilities than Hezbollah, and an escalation will make it difficult for the group to retaliate against Israel.

And what is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah translates to “Party of God”. The think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has previously described it as “The world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, with a large and diverse stockpile of unguided artillery rockets, as well as ballistic, antiair, antitank, and antiship missiles.”

Hezbollah originated during the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), which was a result of “long-simmering discontent over the large, armed Palestinian presence in the country”, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Amid Lebanon’s internal ethnic and religious divisions, the arrival of Palestinian refugees from 1948 onwards — after the creation of Israel as a state for Jewish people that year — led to added tensions. Israeli forces invaded southern Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982 to expel Palestinian guerrilla fighters.

Hezbollah was formed around this time, inspired by the formation of a theocratic Islamic government in Iran in 1979. Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also provided funding to the group.

What are Hezbollah’s aims?

It opposes Israel and Western influence in the Middle East. Hezbollah’s positioning also reflects West Asia’s two major powers and their rivalry – the Sunni Muslim-dominated Saudi Arabia and the majority Shia Muslim-dominated Iran. The United States, which is a staunch ally of Israel and Saudi Arabia, estimates that Iran supplies hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to Hezbollah and that it has thousands of fighters.

Hezbollah became more visible in Lebanese politics in the mid-2000s and currently holds 13 of the 128 seats in the country’s parliament. Along with its allies, it forms the ruling government. But in recent years, many in Lebanon have protested against it amid worsening poverty and unemployment.

The US and Israel recognise Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation.

According to the CSIS, “The party’s arsenal is comprised primarily of small, man-portable, unguided artillery rockets. Although these devices lack precision, their sheer number makes them effective weapons of terror.” Israeli estimates pegged the number at 15,000 rockets and missiles on the eve of the 2006 war. “Hezbollah has since expanded its rocket force, today estimated at 130,000 rounds,” it added.

The US Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) World Factbook says Hezbollah was estimated in 2022 to have up to 45,000 fighters, roughly 20,000 of them full-time.