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Why did the Palestinian militant group Hamas attack Israel? And why now?
Experts say one reason could be to disrupt or destroy ongoing negotiations, mediated by the United States, for the normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The two countries are on the cusp of signing an agreement that could potentially mark a tectonic shift in the political landscape of the Middle East. But this deal, if it comes through, will also show that the support for an independent Palestinian state is no longer a priority for the Arab world, of which Saudi Arabia is the leader.
That is something that Hamas does not want. And notably, the militants attacked southern Israel just days after the US announced that the “basic framework” of the agreement was in place. Nine hundred Israelis are now dead in the attack, and 150 have been taken hostage in Gaza. A fierce Israeli retaliation has killed almost 700 Palestinians so far.
What is the potential deal? Why is it being negotiated now? Will the Hamas attack impact the deal? We take a look.
The US has been working for months to broker a deal that would improve relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The specifics of the agreements are yet to be decided, but the broad contours are known.
The highlight of the deal is that Saudi Arabia will recognise Israel for the first time since the latter’s establishment in 1948. The kingdom has so far shied away from formalising ties with the Jewish state primarily because of the Israel-Palestine conflict — since the beginning, the Saudis have been demanding Palestinian statehood.
So what has changed now? More than resolving the Palestinian question, Riyadh now wants security guarantees from the US in exchange for recognising Israel. Specifically, the kingdom seeks protection from Iran, which has been its arch rival for decades now.
“Saudi Arabia wants an agreement with the US that would be as close as possible to a mutual defence pact — in which any attack on the kingdom would be seen by Washington as an attack on the US,” The Washington Post reported.
The deal also includes US support for a Saudi civilian nuclear programme and US approval for the sale of sophisticated weapons to the kingdom. Israel, which is technologically advanced in a wide range of fields, will also help Riyadh move its economy beyond oil.
Saudi Arabia is the richest and most powerful of the Arab countries. A formal relationship will bring economic benefits to Israel.
Two, it would give legitimacy to the State of Israel in the mostly-Muslim region and help the country become a significant player in West Asia.
Three, the deal will bestow political gains upon Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is battling deep divisions in Israeli society over the policies of his far-right governing coalition, including attempts to muzzle Israel’s judiciary as he himself stands indicted for fraud and bribery. “A deal with Saudi Arabia would shift the focus to a source of national pride and unity,” The Post‘s report added.
And what’s in the deal for the United States?
The US is looking at the growing Chinese influence in the region. The US hopes that giving security guarantees to Saudi Arabia will stop the kingdom from getting closer to China. In April, Beijing successfully mediated an agreement that restored formal ties between the Saudis and Iran, long-time rivals in the region. This signalled the arrival of China as a global power-broker, a role for which only the US has so far had the required influence and financial strength.
Washington also wants to improve its fraught relations with Riyadh. They have been traditional allies, but in recent years, the two countries have had several confrontations, including over the murder of US journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents.
What would the Palestinians get in the deal?
It’s difficult to say. Saudi Arabia has publicly said it remains fully committed to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, in which Arab nations offered Israel normalised ties in return for a statehood deal with the Palestinians, and full Israeli withdrawal from territory captured in 1967.
The kingdom’s officials, however, have indicated that a deal is possible even if it falls short of providing Palestinians an independent state.
In June, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, during a joint news conference with his US counterpart Anthony Blinken, said, “We believe that normalisation is in the interest of the region, that it would bring significant benefits to all… But without finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people, without addressing that challenge, any normalisation will have limited benefits. And therefore, I think we should continue to focus on finding a pathway towards a two-state solution, on finding a pathway towards giving the Palestinians dignity and justice.”
The Palestinians are not directly involved in the negotiations of the deal. But unlike the US-brokered 2020 Abraham Accords, which helped Israel gain recognition from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, they haven’t been completely sidelined.
But the hope of a resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict remains low. Palestinian-American analyst Yousef Munayyer told Al Jazeera that even if a deal is reached, it won’t change the reality of the Israeli occupation or the conflict as a whole.
Why is the US pushing the deal now?
President Joe Biden’s administration wants Israel and Saudi Arabia to ink the deal before the US Presidential elections in November next year — the campaign for which will pick up speed by early summer. A deal would be a huge foreign policy victory for Biden.
Another factor is Iran, which doesn’t seem to agree to stop its nuclear programme. This makes it all the more important for the US to strengthen ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of whom see Iran as an enemy.
So will the Israel-Hamas conflict affect the deal?
There is no doubt that the war and Israel’s ferocious counterattack have thrown the deal timeline off-track. It has also triggered sympathy for the Palestinians in the wider Arab world.
On the day the attack began, the Saudi Foreign Ministry blamed Israel, saying the Saudi government had repeatedly warned “of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights and the repetition of systemic provocations against its sanctities”, The New York Times reported.
The statement took President Biden and his aides by surprise and angered American lawmakers, who have supported the deal. It also cast a shadow over the chances of finalising the agreement any time soon.
And this is probably exactly what Hamas, and possibly Iran, wanted. Although there is no concrete evidence of Iran being involved in the attacks, many believe the country egged on the Palestinian militant group to launch the onslaught.
A Palestinian official close to Islamist militant groups told Reuters: “Iran has hands, not one hand, in every rocket that is fired into Israel.” “It doesn’t mean that they ordered the (October 7) attack but it is not a secret that it is thanks to Iran, (that) Hamas and the Islamic Jihad have been able to upgrade their arsenal,” the official said.
