Ground invasion imminent, what are the implications for Gaza, Hamas, and the Palestinian movement?

What will be the implications of an Israeli ground invasion for Gaza and Israel?

If this scenario were to come to fruition, it would lead to one of the most horrific humanitarian catastrophes in the 21st century. The Gaza Strip is a very narrow strip of land, among the mostly densely populated areas in the world, and innocent civilians will pay the highest price. Hamas military men will be hard to find, and yet the civilians are easy targets, as we have seen in the past few days during the massive Israeli retaliation.

Politically and strategically, there does not seem to be a clear Israeli roadmap for what comes next in case of an actual invasion of the Strip and supposedly destroying Hamas. An Israeli reoccupation of the Strip directly means more loss of lives on both sides, and encouraging more resistance of smaller groups that would be splinters of Hamas.

Even if there is no ground invasion, Israel has cut off electricity, food, water, and fuel supplies to Gaza, is bombing it intensely, and has asked a million people in the north to leave. Where could this situation lead?

The Israelis are pushing for a new expulsion of the Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Egypt and the Sinai desert. They are focused on the northern part of the Gaza Strip, maybe to reoccupy it and make it some sort of a buffer zone. But this means ethnically cleansing more than 1 million Palestinians.

Egypt rejects the Israeli plan, and says that it won’t open its borders for mass immigration. Also, transferring a million people to the southern part of the Gaza Strip is not a permanent solution, but will create massive problems. One most surprising aspect we are seeing is the unconditional support from the West, the US and Europe, to the brutality of the Israeli operation that amounts to war crimes, as many Western human rights groups say nowadays. The 2 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are trapped between a slow death and a quick death, literally.

Hamas usually grabs headlines, particularly in India, when it launches an armed attack on Israel. but it’s also a religious movement and a political party. What other roles does it play in the everyday life of Palestinians?

Hamas is, and is seen by the Palestinians, as a multifaceted social, religious, political, and military organisation — not an isolated marginal group that could be squashed by a security strike, etc. The movement’s history goes back to its mother organisation, the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood, that was founded in Palestine during the British Mandate in the 1940s. It continued to exist under Israeli occupation after the creation of Israel in 1948, but it didn’t engage in resistance or confrontation against Israel, as other nationalist or Marxist Palestinian organisations. Their focus was on charities, social services, mosques, universities, proselytising, etc.

In 1987, they changed their strategy and adopted resistance as their goal, adding a new aspect to their track record of helping their community. The multi-dimensional and deep integration of the movement in Palestinian society differentiates it from other extremist groups that exist on the fringes. After 2000, when peace talks between Israel and the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organisation) became fruitless, Hamas and its strategy of resistance gained more support with the Palestinians, leading to its winning the Palestinian legislative elections in 2006.

Since then, Hamas has been caged in the Gaza Strip along with two million Palestinians, many of whom see the movement as the vehicle of resistance against the Israeli occupation.

There are theories that over the years, Benjamin Netanyahu helped strengthen Hamas at the expense of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in order to ensure there remains a political rift between Hamas and Fatah and there aren’t any negotiations. What’s your view on that?

Since 2005, the Israeli strategy intended to create splits within the Palestinians and secure the environment that will sustain a deep Palestinian divide between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. In line with the classical colonial notion of divide and conquer, their strategy succeeded and was indirectly helped by the rivalry politics among the Palestinian factions. Israel would monitor both parties of the split and if it observed the balance of power tilting to one side, it would ease some restrictions on the other side to keep both strong enough to compete with each other, and direct their energy away from resisting the root cause — the Israeli occupation.

What does the future hold for Hamas? Will Israel look to completely eliminate them militarily and politically?

It’s difficult to think of how Israel could eliminate Hamas, because this is a movement that is deeply entrenched within the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and enjoys massive support abroad. If Hamas was militarily destroyed in the Gaza Strip, and its rule is removed, we’ll see long-term chaos unless a broader political solution gives hope to the Palestinians.

Is it possible that a more radical movement will emerge once the present leadership of the group is removed?

They can’t be eliminated completely. You can eliminate ISIS from this country or that, because it was imposed on the people, and never enjoyed internal support. Hamas has been internally evolved, and people see their sons, brothers, and friends part of it. But yes, assuming that Hamas is eliminated, the alternative is most likely more extreme splinter groups.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met the Palestinian president in Amman. What role can Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas play in this crisis?

Fatah is divided internally, mostly between those who support the status quo of Mahmoud Abbas — and whoever would come when he is no longer there — in coordination with Israel, and those who want to change the entire game and stop functioning under the overarching Israeli control.

There were intense debates within Fatah recently, and the outcome of these debates including who would succeed Abbas will influence the future of the PA and the relations with Hamas. In the short term, it is difficult for Hamas to replace the PA in the West Bank because of the Israeli de facto occupation of the West Bank.

What would be the implication of the October 7 attacks on the peace process between Israel and Arab nations that has been ongoing since the 2020 Abraham Accords? Could the potential US-led deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia still materialise?

In the short term, these Accords have been discredited in the eyes of many Arabs because of the devastating scenes coming out of Gaza. Saudi Arabia announced that talks of normalisation with Israel have been frozen because of the situation. The events of October 7 have indeed derailed or at least delayed the train of normalisation between some Arab states and Israel.

Khaled Al Hroub is professor in residence at the faculty of liberal arts at Northwestern University in Qatar. His research is focused on Middle Eastern studies and politics and he has a particular interest in Islam and politics, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and Arab media studies. He has written two books on Hamas, Hamas: A Beginners Guide (2006/2010), and Hamas: Political Thought and Practice (2000).