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Journalism of Courage
Half-way through the Uttar Pradesh elections, the BJP and BSP seem to have reached an unusual common ground: on how well Mayawati’s party would do come March 10. First, senior BJP leader Amit Shah said in an interview to News18 that Mayawati remained “relevant” contrary to political predictions, and that the BSP would also get Muslim support apart from its core Jatav votes. On Tuesday, Mayawati thanked Shah for his “greatness” in saying the same, and said the Samajwadi Party was wrong in claiming that the Muslim vote would be cornered by it.
An analysis of the candidates fielded by the BSP, in fact, shows that the party may damage the SP on more seats than it will do the BJP.
One reason is the number of Muslim candidates fielded by the BSP in an election where the SP is hoping to pull ahead of the BJP by rallying all its Muslim and Yadav support, plus extra votes from other communities.
For the 403 seats, the BSP has fielded 88 Muslim candidates, to the SP alliance’s 61. In 2017, when the BSP had fielded 100 Muslim candidates, only four could win.
In at least 28 seats, both the BSP and SP alliance have fielded Muslim candidates. A majority of these seats are in western UP, where the SP expected the least hiccups having sealed an alliance with the RLD to bring the Muslim and Jat votes together.
Apart from this, in 44 seats, the BSP has fielded Muslim candidates against non-Muslim candidates of the SP.
Party leaders across the SP and BSP admitted that while Muslims are more or less voting for the SP alliance, there will be a division in those seats where the BSP has a strong Muslim candidate. “Most voters have supported the alliance to avoid wastage of votes but the BSP too will get a small share depending on the candidate,” said a BSP leader.
In six seats particularly, Shekhupur, Aliganj, Chhibramau, Bakshi Ka Talab, Kunda and Gainsari, BSP Muslim candidates will damage the SP’s Yadav candidate.
Incidentally, the BSP too has fielded Yadav candidates in a few seats. Like Malhani, which goes to polls in the last phase on March 7. With the SP and BSP both fielding Yadavs, the BJP fancies the chances of its Thakur candidate in the Yadav-dominated seat.
While the Brahmins are seen to be unhappy with the Yogi Adityanath government, the Opposition parties have surprisingly fielded fewer Brahmin candidates than the BJP. Compared to the 62 Brahmin candidates put up by the BJP and allies, the BSP has put up 54, the SP alliance 34 and the Congress 48. Last time the BSP had fielded 62 Brahmins and four had won.
In the run-up to the polls, both the BSP and SP had held a series of meetings wooing the Brahmin community. BSP national general secretary S C Mishra had addressed such sammelans across the state, while for the SP, Manoj Pandey had organised the events.
Though the BSP has been out of power in the state for over a decade, it has held on to its vote share in successive elections. In 2007, its successful social engineering, adding the upper castes and Muslims to its traditional vote bank, had resulted in an unexpected two-thirds majority.
Among those who could face a tough fight courtesy the BSP’s choices is Swami Prasad Maurya, the former BJP minister who is contesting from Fazilnagar Padaruna as an SP candidate. Facing him are the BSP’s Ilias Ansari and the BJP’s Surendra Kushwaha. An SP worker, Ansari left the party after the SP gave the ticket to Swami Prasad. The BSP dropped its Brahmin candidate from here to field Ansari.
In Zahoorabad, where SP ally Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party’s leader Om Prakash Rajbhar is contesting, the BSP has fielded former SP leader Shadab Fatima. In Bahraich, which votes in the coming phases, the BSP’s Naeem is up against the SP’s Yasar Shah. The BJP candidate there is former minister and sitting MLA Anupama Jaiswal.
Similarly, the BSP choices are seen to be hurting the Opposition to the advantage of BJP candidates, including Adityanath, in Gorakhpur, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya in Sirathu, and the BJP’s Aditi Singh in Raebareli. In Gorakhpur Urban, the BSP has fielded Khwaja Shamshuddin; while in Raebareli, the BSP has gone with Mohd Asharaf.
In Raebareli though, the BSP’s Muslim candidate might hurt the BJP’s Aditi Singh, as she will end up losing the Muslim support she and earlier her father got when they were in the Congress.
Observers have also noted Mayawati’s lack of “aggression” against the BJP government in the polls. The BSP chief launched her campaign way after the others, and in most of her speeches, she attacks the SP on law and order than the ruling BJP. She also fielded candidates generally after the SP and BJP had declared theirs.
In seats like Fazilnagar, voters expressed their confusion over the BSP’s plans. Says Nasirruddin Ahmad, 45, back home from Mumbai for voting: “Ilias bhai has done wrong by dividing the community’s vote. Hum to cycle ko daliye, lekin Bhajapa nikal jaibe yahan (We will vote for the cycle, but the BJP will scrape through).”
