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Journalism of Courage
Political consultant-turned-Jan Swaraj Abhiyaan convenor Prashant Kishor has lauded the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for making a “smart move” by setting the 370-seat target in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.
Speaking to NDTV, Kishore on Tuesday said that according to his assessment, “it is more or less clear that the current government will return to power with more or less the same or slightly better numbers.”
In the Lok Sabha, a party or coalition must secure at least 272 seats to achieve a majority to form government at the Centre.
Regarding the 370-seat target, Kishor said, “Even if the BJP wins 275 seats, its leaders are not going to say that we will not form the government because we had claimed we will win 370. So, we need to see if they get more than 272 seats. The commentary will continue despite increase, decrease or even any turbulence. But I don’t see any risk; when it comes to forming the government, NDA under the leadership of Modiji seems to be returning to power.”
Commenting on the BJP surprising everyone with its final outcome in election results, the poll strategist said since the last three-four months, the narrative has been centred around 370 or 400 seats. “Call it BJP’s strategy or propaganda machinery or even the Opposition’s stupidity or weakness, but the BJP and Modi have completely shifted the goalpost from 272 to 370. So the deliberations and calculations are all centred around this: if the BJP is getting 370 or not. We must give credit to BJP and Modiji for changing the nucleus of the discussion… Because now, no one is saying that Modiji is losing… Everyone is saying they are not getting 370. But even if they win 320, they will still form the government,” he said.
On being asked what would be the bottom line on June 4, Kishore said, “The future will show what the June 4 results will be. Journalists, psephologists, experts and political leaders across the world have their own opinions. As far as I am concerned, I would say consistency sometimes can be boring. According to my perception, for the last five months, no matter how you assess the elections, it seems Modi-led BJP/NDA government is returning. There may be deliberations and differences in opinion regarding numbers, but it is more or less clear that the current government will return to power with more or less same or slightly better numbers.”
He further said that instead of analysing the day-to-day commentary in elections, one should should look at the fundamentals. “If there is anger towards the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji. There may be disappointment, suppressed irritation, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger,” he said.
Kishor also highlighted a fundamental issue of “a clamour for a challenger”. “This is when people feel that if this person comes to power, our situation will improve. We have not heard anything like the situation would be better if Rahul Gandhi comes. His supporters may say that, but I am talking about a more widespread level. There is an absence of widespread anger against the incumbent or a clamour for somebody who is a challenger. So I don’t think there would be a drastic change or huge change in numbers,” he stated.
He also explained that if one largely looks at numbers from a political point of view, North and West India account for about 325 Lok Sabha seats, that have been a BJP/NDA stronghold since 2014 and 90 per cent of them have been won by them. “When it comes to the East and South (which include Bihar, Assam, West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala) with 225-odd seats, the BJP has not performed well in the last 10 years. Today, the BJP has less than 50 seats out of these 225 seats. Now, if BJP has to lose, you need to see if they have suffered any material damage in the North and West. My evaluation says that it has not. In the East and South, there is a possibility of an increase in its vote share and seats,” he said.
“Therefore, status quo or a status quo with a positive bias in favour of incumbent is expected. I see little chance of BJP’s score decreasing,” he added.
