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As Indian negotiators are in the US to secure a trade deal before the August 1 deadline, New Delhi refutes sanctions threats and cautions against “double standards”; thaw in India-China ties but some key issues remain unresolved; EU’s sanctions against Russia could affect India’s fuel exports to Europe; Hamas claims Israel has rejected ceasefire proposal that would have seen the release of all remaining captives held in Gaza – here is weekly roundup of key global news.
As Indian negotiators hold talks with their US counterparts in Washington to secure a deal before the August 1 tariff deadline, few developments appear to complicate the trajectory of India-US trade negotiations, including:
— A Bill in the US Congress – the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 – that proposes to impose 500 per cent tariffs on buyers of Russian energy;
— US President Donald Trump warning of 100 per cent tariffs against Russia’s trading partners if the Kremlin does not agree to end the war within 50 days;
— North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) chief Mark Rutte doubling down on Trump’s threat and warning of similar secondary sanctions against countries doing business with Russia, including India and China.
Nonetheless, India gave a firm reply to Rutte’s warning and asserted that “securing the energy needs of our people is understandably an overriding priority for us.” New Delhi also cautioned against any “double standards” on the matter.
India’s energy imports from Russia shot up following the country’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which prompted much of the West to ban Russian crude. In the 2024-25 financial year, oil imports from Russia accounted for almost 36 per cent of India’s total oil imports.
Notably, India exported a substantial volume of refined fuel, derived from the imported Russian oil, to Europe. But as part of the latest sanctions announced on Friday (July 18), the European Union (EU) even banned the import of fuels made from Russian crude and coming from third countries.
This latest sanction could have serious repercussions for India’s fuel exports to Europe. In addition, new tariffs on metals, a likely 10 per cent additional tariffs on countries in the BRICS bloc, and delayed tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs are other thorny issues that have emerged around the India-US trade deal negotiations.
Two episodes from the recent past
To put things in perspective, two episodes from the recent past can be recalled here. One, a few years ago, India acquired the S-400 missile system – which formed the outermost layer of India’s air defence during Operation Sindoor – despite the US threatening sanctions. India made it clear that it would proceed with the S-400 deal anyway. Eventually, the US House carved out an India-specific waiver.
Two, New Delhi stopped importing oil from Iran in mid-2019 after sanctions on the Islamic Republic by the Trump administration. However, in the latest episode, it is yet to be seen if the recent tariff threats made against countries like India and China for their energy imports from Russia will translate into tangible tariff action.
Nonetheless, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said, “…if something happens, we will deal with it… There is sufficient supply available.” In recent years, India has expanded its crude sourcing slate from 27 countries to around 40 countries, he added.
Agriculture and dairy
All the while, agriculture and dairy continue to remain a major sticking point in the ongoing talks. A farmers’ body in India has urged the government to exclude all aspects of agriculture from the US trade deal to protect the interests of farmers.
The Indian Coordination Committee of Farmers’ Movements (ICCFM), a network of farmers’ organisations across 11 states, expressed hope that the same sentiment which led India to wisely withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade negotiations will prevail in this case as well.
The US government is among the world’s largest agricultural subsidisers, which not only restrict agricultural imports into the US but also enable American products to enter export markets at artificially low prices. A recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI) also warned that opening India’s dairy sector to US imports could result in an annual loss of Rs 1.03 lakh crore to Indian dairy farmers.
Such concerns gathered ground as Trump claimed that a trade deal with Indonesia would open the country’s entire market for the US, and cited some of the deals as a potential template to reiterate his previous claims of gaining “access” to India.
In the meantime, India and the European Union (EU) continue to differ on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS), which govern food and animal safety rules and are key to India’s agricultural and processed food exports to the EU, according to a status report released by the EU on Thursday (July 17).
Five years after the Galwan Valley clashes, External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar visited China this week, where he underlined that “an open exchange of views and perspectives between India and China is very important” in the given international context.
Jaishankar’s visit to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in China comes against the backdrop of a few notable geopolitical developments, including the US and NATO upping their ante against countries doing business with Russia.
With reference to the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, the EAM called for the SCO to take an “uncompromising position” on the challenge of terrorism. He also underlined that the SCO was founded to combat the three evils – “terrorism, separatism and extremism”.
It must be recalled here that the SCO Defence Ministers’ meeting last month failed to issue a joint statement after Defence Minister Rajnath Singh declined to sign the draft statement which omitted a reference to the Pahalgam attack. Notably, even the Foreign Ministers’ meeting did not issue a separate joint statement.
Meanwhile, China’s state-run news agency Xinhua reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that in the face of a “turbulent and changing international landscape”, the SCO must play a more “proactive role” to ensure greater stability.
That apart, Jaishankar’s visit to China, where he met with President Xi, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Liu Jianchao (head of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party) is largely seen in the context of the recent thaw in India-China ties.
The resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, and an understanding to resume direct flights and ease visa restrictions are among the noted developments, hinting at the rebuilding of cross-border ties. However, while Jaishankar pointed out that “a far-seeing lens” should be used for rebuilding relations, analysts have drawn attention to some key issues that remain unresolved:
— Although a disengagement agreement was finalised in October 2024, the de-escalation process, the withdrawal of troops from forward positions, has not begun at the border;
— China continues to view its relationship with India primarily through a lens of competition, not cooperation. It continues to scale up its defence budget and capabilities;
— China’s growing military cooperation with Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, its expanding footprints across South Asia, and drawing strategically important countries for India, like Bangladesh, into its fold.
— While India runs a trade deficit of over $100 billion with China, Beijing has placed restrictions on the export of rare earth magnets for EVs to India, wind turbines and electronics, besides tunnel boring machines and certain high-value fertilisers.
— China’s export restrictions on key fertilisers like di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea in part contributed to their shortages at the time of favourable monsoon when Kharif crop sowing gathers pace.
While some of these concerns were conveyed by Jaishankar to Wang Yi during the SCO meet, India’s widening engagement across the neighbourhood and beyond is seen as the need of the hour to prevent Beijing from gaining a decisive upper hand in the region.
Now all eyes would be on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected visit to China for the SCO Summit on August 31-September 1, which would be his first such visit since the Galwan clashes in 2020.
Russia launched over 30 missiles and 300 drones in an overnight attack on Ukraine, following the European Union’s (EU) announcement of its latest sanctions targeting Moscow’s oil and energy industry – the lifeblood of its state finances – over the ongoing war which is now in its fourth year.
The EU’s 18th package of sanctions also bans the import of Russian fuels made from Russian crude and coming from third countries, except Canada, Norway, Switzerland, the UK and the US.
The move could severely affect India’s fuel exports to Europe and deals a blow to Gujarat-based Nayara Energy’s Vadinar Refinery in which Russian oil giant Rosneft holds 49.13 per cent stake. However, India brushed aside the sanctions, saying it does not subscribe to any unilateral sanction measures.
The sanctions also include blacklisting the “shadow fleet” (a term used by Western officials for ships that Russia uses to circumvent oil sanctions), capping Russian crude at $47.60 per barrel, tightening banking rules, and banning transactions related to Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea.
However, Russia has so far managed to sell most of its oil above the previous price cap $60 as the current mechanism makes it unclear who must police its implementation. Traders doubt the new EU sanctions will significantly disrupt Russian oil exports, Reuters reported.
Responding to the latest sanctions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “We consider such unilateral restrictions unlawful”. He was cited by The Associated Press as saying, “At the same time, we have acquired certain immunity from sanctions. We have adapted to living under sanctions.”
Alongside the EU, the US has also threatened Russia with steep tariffs and revealed its plan to send weapons to the embattled Ukraine. In addition to supplying Patriot air defence systems via NATO, the US is also engaged in detailed talks with Ukraine on a deal involving American investment in Kyiv’s domestic drone production, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday (July 19) that Russia launched over 30 missiles and 300 drones in an overnight attack, damaging critical infrastructure in Sumy, where several thousand families suffered power cuts.
Russia’s intransigence, evident in its ongoing attacks, casts a shadow over the prospect of peace in the near future. “Determined to win whatever the cost, he [President Putin] has chosen to subordinate the Russian economy to the war,” writes Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman in Foreign Affairs.
Meanwhile, Palestinians continue to grapple for food in what is described as “the hungriest place on Earth” – Gaza – as Israel killed over 50 people, including 32 people near food aid sites in Rafah, on Saturday (July 19).
“With one in three people in the enclave not eating for days at a time”, thousands of Palestinians in Gaza are on the “verge of catastrophic hunger,” said the World Food Programme (WFP).
While orchestrating the diabolical killings of war-stricken Palestinians through the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), Israel, Hamas said, rejected a ceasefire proposal that would have seen the release of all remaining captives held in Gaza, Al Jazeera reported.
Israel’s war on Gaza has killed at least 58,667 people and wounded 139,974. An estimated 1,139 people were killed in Israel during the October 7 attacks, and more than 200 were taken captive.
Qatar and Egypt, backed by the US, have hosted more than 10 days of talks on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day truce in the war. As part of the potential deal, 10 hostages held in Gaza would be returned along with the bodies of 18 others, spread out over 60 days. In exchange, Israel would release several detained Palestinians.
However, the two sides have yet to come to terms on a core impasse – while Hamas demands a permanent ceasefire and full withdrawal, Netanyahu insists on the militant group’s unconditional surrender and removal.
In the meantime, Israel’s military intervention compounded a fighting between Druze and Bedouin armed groups and government forces in Syria’s southern province of Suwayda, leaving hundreds dead, according to Al Jazeera.
Later on, the US announced that Israel and Syria agreed to a ceasefire, following which Syria’s security forces were deployed in the restive province.
Muddassir Quamar, an expert on West Asia, pointed out that following the end of the 24-year rule of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria, a number of factors, such as deep societal divisions, polarisation, and the collapse of both political framework and security institutions, demand a commitment by all groups, factions and communities to work together and avoid violence and appropriation of power as the first step towards a brighter future for the country.
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