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Journalism of Courage
The Election Commission (EC) on Monday announced June 19 as the polling date for the eight Rajya Sabha seats – two in Assam and six in Tamil Nadu – which will fall vacant over the next two months.
Both the ruling NDA as well as the Opposition do not have the numbers to win both the seats in Assam. While in Tamil Nadu, constituents of both the DMK-led ruling alliance as well as the NDA are in the dark over seat distribution.
In Assam, two seats will fall vacant as the terms of Birendra Prasad Baishya of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) – an NDA ally – and the BJP’s Mission Ranjan Das will end on June 14.
In the 126-member Assam Assembly, each Rajya Sabha candidate would require 42 votes to win the poll. The ruling NDA with 80 MLAs (BJP: 64, AGP: 9 and UPPL: 7) has the numbers to comfortably win one seat, but is likely to fall short by four votes in the second seat.
The Congress, which has 26 MLAs and is likely to get the support of the lone CPI(M) MLA, is believed to be eyeing the support of the 15 MLAs of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and three of the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) to spoil the BJP’s chances.
The NDA’s tally in the Rajya Sabha will not see a change if it manages to win both the seats.
Currently, the NDA has 128 members in the Upper House while the Opposition has 89 MPs. Non-aligned parties like the YSRCP, BRS, BJD, BSP and MNF have 20 members while eight seats are currently vacant
In Tamil Nadu, the terms of six members – Anbumani Ramadoss (Pattali Makkal Katchi), N Chandrasegharan (AIADMK), M Shanmugam (DMK), P Wilson (DMK), M Mohamed Abdulla (DMK) and Vaiko (MDMK) – will expire on July 24. While the AIADMK and the PMK are constituents of the NDA, the MDMK is a part of the DMK-led INDIA bloc in the state.
As Tamil Nadu has a 234-member Assembly, each candidate would require a minimum of 34 votes to win a Rajya Sabha poll.
The INDIA bloc, with 158 members (DMK: 133, Congress:17, VCK: 4, CPI: 2, CPI(M): 2) is set to comfortably win four seats while the NDA (AIADMK: 66, BJP: 4, PMK: 5) looks poised to win two.
However, it remains to be seen if the DMK gives a seat to Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), which had joined the INDIA bloc ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls but did not field candidates after it was reportedly promised a Rajya Sabha berth.
With the BJP replacing its firebrand state chief K Annamalai to “facilitate” the re-entry of the AIADMK into the NDA, it remains to be seen if its new coalition partner will return the “favour” with a Rajya Sabha seat.
J&K bypolls
A day after the EC announced five Assembly bypolls in four states but left out the two seats in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) on Monday questioned the delay and appealed to the poll panel to hold Rajya Sabha polls in the Union Territory (UT) at the earliest.
“Jammu and Kashmir has a right to representation in the Rajya Sabha. I appeal to the EC to hold elections as soon as possible. Moreover, Assembly by-elections are taking place everywhere except for Budgam and Nagrota. Why is there a delay only in Jammu and Kashmir?” NC chief spokesperson Tanvir Sadiq asked.
The Budgam Assembly segment fell vacant after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah decided to give it up and retain Ganderbal while the Nagrota seat fell vacant following the death of BJP leader and incumbent MLA Devender Rana soon after last year’s polls.
