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AIADMK spokesperson D Jayakumar’s statement that the party did not have an alliance with the BJP notwithstanding, the two parties are working their way towards an arrangement.
Following a pattern familiar from other states where the BJP began as part of an alliance led by a bigger regional party, Union Home Minister and BJP leader Amit Shah, during his meeting in Delhi with AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami last week, suggested that the BJP wants more seats for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, said sources. The BJP is reportedly demanding 15 seats, a three-fold increase from the earlier arrangement in which the national party had got 5 seats.
Jayakumar’s remarks followed several statements by Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai attacking AIADMK icons such as J Jayalalithaa and, in the latest case, C N Annadurai. “After he criticised Jayalalithaa and faced the people’s wrath, he disowned his statement. Now he is back with an attack on Annadurai,” Jayakumar said Monday.
The former minister added that there was no alliance with the BJP as of now was not his personal view but had the backing of the party.
Referring to a 1956 speech made by Annadurai criticising the Hindu faith, Annamalai had said that influential freedom fighter Muthuramalinga Thevar had condemned Annadurai for his remarks. The AIADMK had reacted sharply, with several leaders questioning the wisdom of dredging up the past, including Palaniswami.
On Monday, Jayakumar compared the BJP chief to a pest that damages own home and properties. “No AIADMK cadre with self-respect will accept that,” he said, adding that Annamalai’s words did not help the cause of collaborative or alliance politics.
Jayakumar added: “Let me make it clear, the BJP is not in our alliance. Any decision beyond that will be taken at the time of the elections.” He also said that the BJP or Annamalai were nothing without the AIADMK in the state, and would get less than NOTA votes in such a scenario.
Sources said the AIADMK could not let remarks against Annadurai go uncontested, particularly when the party is already seen as having lost its Dravidian moorings in alliance with the BJP. And particularly when the DMK is aggressively claiming the space.
On the other side, Annamalai too has a reputation to live up to, as an aggressive leader uncowed by the BJP’s position as an unimportant factor in Tamil Nadu politics.
Behind the scenes, sources said, talks between the allies are in progress, with the BJP confident of getting more concessions from the AIADMK. Of the 15 Lok Sabha seats the BJP wants in Tamil Nadu, it reportedly wants to fight 10 on its own, and allot 5 to its smaller local allies.
Top BJP leaders who spoke to The Indian Express said their plan to spread their footprint isn’t limited to the immediate Lok Sabha polls. A senior leader spoke about a progression to 90 Assembly seats by 2026. However, this might take some working as Palaniswami is reportedly reluctant about contesting Assembly elections in alliance with the BJP, which might not be too advantageous for the party.
Sources in both the BJP and AIADMK said the national party has also nudged Palaniswami to soften his stand over ousted AIADMK leaders T T V Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam. The BJP is apprehensive of the two leaders cutting into the AIADMK support base, and thus weakening the alliance against the DMK.
The AIADMK has not been keen about this, as it fears this would strengthen the BJP’s negotiating power in southern Tamil Nadu, an outcome of complex caste equations.
The BJP has gained significantly in the area, notably among the Mukkulathur community, also known as the Thevars, who have traditionally associated with the AIADMK but swung towards the DMK in the 2019 Assembly polls. The late Jayalalithaa’s close aide V K Sasikala, as well as rebel leaders Dhinakaran and Panneerselvam, are all Thevars from this region. The return of the rebels would bolster them as well as the BJP, especially in regions such as Tirunelveli, Tenkasi and Kanyakumari.
The other trump card in the BJP’s hands is the many cases against top AIADMK leaders pending before Central agencies.
While AIADMK leaders are apprehensive about ceding more ground to the BJP – with Tamil Nadu’s political landscape not favourable to a national party – a senior party leader admitted they find themselves in a tough position.
A former AIADMK minister said that the extra constituencies the BJP is eyeing include Tirunelveli, Tenkasi and Kanyakumari, along with Madurai, Sivaganga and Ramanathapuram, in the south, Vellore in the north, Perambalur in the middle, and Coimbatore and Nilgiris to the west.
Annamalai himself reportedly wants to contest from Coimbatore South, where the BJP has a significant hold, while Union minister and former state BJP chief L Murugan has his eyes on the Nilgiris seat, a stronghold of the DMK’s A Raja.
The BJP reportedly also wants Puducherry’s Lok Sabha seat as part of the alliance.
Another casualty of a renegotiated alignment could be AIADMK allies such as S Ramadoss’s PMK and Captain Vijayakanth’s DMDK, whose share is expected to shrink. “The PMK that once contested on seven seats, might now get only three. The DMDK’s four seats could be trimmed to 1-2,” the AIADMK leader said.
