Oppn insecurities, familiar fight for BJP: Why Rahul should keep away from the centre stage

If Rahul’s Lok Sabha membership is restored, it will once again make him the central figure of Opposition politics. Will the Lok Sabha Speaker do this with despatch? If so, it will charge up the atmosphere in the Lok Sabha when the Opposition’s no-confidence motion against the government is taken up for discussion on August 8. Or will the Lok Sabha Secretariat take its time coming to a view, as in some other cases in the past? After all, it had taken only 24 hours after Rahul’s conviction to disqualify him from Parliament. But then not giving Rahul immediate relief is likely to generate more sympathy for the Congress leader and this is something that must worry the BJP.

While the selective use of the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) against Opposition leaders — with many arrested and sent to jail — is one of the reasons for Opposition leaders making common cause, it was Rahul’s disqualification that sent many of them into a panic. If it was Rahul Gandhi today, it could be any of them tomorrow.

It is not ED-CBI actions against Opposition leaders that have resonated with ordinary people. It is Rahul’s disqualification from Parliament, which earned him sympathy at the ground level; many saw it as punishment for his sharp criticism of the government.

Even the Supreme Court had a word of censure for the Surat trial court and the Gujarat High Court when it noted the maximum punishment handed out to Rahul — two years — and said that if the quantum of punishment had been a day less than two years Rahul would not have lost his MP status. Equally significant, the top court pointed out that the disqualification affected not just the parliamentarian but also the voters he represented in Kerala’s Wayanad.

While the court indicated that the punishment meted out to Rahul was disproportionate, it admitted that his comments on the Modi community while on the campaign trail in Karnataka during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections — “Why do all thieves have the Modi surname,” he asked — were not in good taste. And that as a leading figure in public affairs, he needed to be “more careful”.

Many ordinary folks in villages and towns, while appreciating the points Rahul makes, recognise that there is a “bhasha ka lafda (faux pas)” as far as his language is concerned. For instance, the Congress leader, when visiting the US in May, called the prime minister a “specimen”. They point out that it is possible to be measured while mounting a sharp attack and holding a mirror to the government.

Winning a reprieve courtesy of the apex court — the sessions court will start hearing Rahul’s appeal on August 21 — has made Rahul a taller figure than he was before the conviction.

While the whole affair has added inches to Rahul’s stature, can the Supreme Court stay become a double-edged sword for the Opposition? The restoration of the Congress leader’s Lok Sabha membership — and in all likelihood he will contest the general elections next year — can again make the battle next year a “Rahul versus Modi” fight, something that has gone the prime minister’s way in the last two elections.

Rahul taking centre stage again may fuel the insecurities of other Opposition leaders. As the Opposition tried to come together, Rahul took a back seat, leaving the initiative to Kharge, Nitish Kumar, and others, indicating to other Opposition leaders the Congress’s willingness to go out of the way to cooperate with them. This was a face of the Congress different from the big brotherly attitude it has been known to display.

This may, however, change unless Rahul decides to do a Sonia Gandhi. That, while he will work to revive the Congress and campaign for Opposition candidates he will not seek the top job in 2024. Sonia Gandhi spurned the prime ministership in 2004 because of Rahul’s opposition to her becoming PM. It led her to give up the prize within her grasp and made her acceptable in the party and country, and the tallest Congress leader even today.

Rahul Gandhi has been at his best when reaching out to people, whether during the Bharat Jodo Yatra or his other outreach programmes — talking to students in a hostel at Delhi University, vegetable vendors in Azadpur Mandi, mechanics in Karol Bagh, or paddy farmers in Sonepat. He has not been as good when it comes to dealing with the nitty-gritty of organisational work and has been criticised by colleagues for not providing them and party workers with access, which has been read as a sign of entitlement.

Yes, the stay on Rahul’s conviction will have an impact, certainly in the short term. It is difficult to say how much in the long run, for the BJP is expected to play its cards only after the G-20 summit is over. But then whether it is the action against Rahul and rising prices that have hurt ordinary people or protests by wrestlers against sexual harassment and the handling of the situation in Manipur, all these can add up to a cumulative impact. It is, however, early days yet to come to any conclusion.

Rahul’s possible reinstallation as MP may help not just him and the Congress, it may also help the BJP in so far as it “normalises” the situation and takes away from Rahul his “victimhood” card it had begun to be uncomfortable about.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections)