Naidu’s development pitch to Stalin’s delimitation concern – how South is fuelling population debate

Several southern states, which have implemented family planning better and have complained of allegedly getting a “raw deal” from the Centre in the devolution of taxes, fear that delimitation may lead to fewer parliamentary seats in the South as compared to North India and thus reduce their political importance.

There are however various views emerging from the South on the issue, with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu and his Tamil Nadu counterpart M K Stalin expressing their concerns in different ways.

The Naidu-led TDP points out that total fertility rate (TFR) in Andhra Pradesh is 1.5 children per adult female, which is significantly below the national TFR of 2.0.

The TDP camp seems to be more concerned about its impact on the development of the state in future amid ageing demographics and declining working-age population.

Since returning to power in June, Naidu has expressed concern about the ageing population in the state, saying his government was contemplating moves to incentivise families to have more children. Taking a step in that direction a few weeks ago, the Naidu government repealed a three-decade-old law, the AP Panchayat Raj and AP Municipal Acts, that barred people with more than two children from contesting local body polls.

Tamil Nadu CM and DMK chief Stalin, on the other hand, has openly flagged his apprehensions about the potential reduction of South India’s share in parliamentary seats since they have successfully controlled population growth.

Addressing a mass wedding event in Chennai in October, Stalin referred to an old Tamil blessing, saying “That blessing doesn’t mean beget 16 children … But now a situation has arisen where people think they should literally raise 16 children and not a small and prosperous family,” he said. The situation he referred to is delimitation, he explained later.

The TDP however claims that its concern over the issue is centred on the development factor. TDP national spokesperson Jyothsna Tirunagari told The Indian Express, “Unlike Tamil Nadu, we are not concerned about delimitation. We think that the South will not get a raw deal when it comes to delimitation.”

The TDP, which is a key ally of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre, has been silent on both devolution of taxes and delimitation. A party source said, “Andhra Pradesh has got grants from the Centre in the Budget session of Parliament. We think that it is wise not to raise the issue of devolution of taxes.”

As regards the delimitation issue, “Naidu would be able to make sure that the southern states do not lose their political importance”, the source said.

However, the DMK, a major ally of the Opposition INDIA alliance, fears adverse ramifications of delimitation for the South. “The southern states had implemented population control measures and now when it comes to delimitation and devolution of taxes our efforts are being considered in the negative light,” said DMK spokesperson Sarvanan Annadurai.

“Because of the South’s effective control of population, the states here could lose out if delimitation is done on the basis of population alone”, a DMK leader said. “We think that the population question is crucial because it is connected to representation. We think that the entire South India should stand together in raising this concern,” he said.

Some other leaders from southern states have also expressed concerns about the ageing population and declining fertility rates. BRS working president K T Rama Rao told The Indian Express in a recent interview that he had urged the Centre “not to punish” southern states for successfully implementing family planning. “I hope the Centre does not resort to misadventures with the number of seats, which must be increased based on economic performance … Injustice in the form of delimitation will not be tolerated and the people of the southern states will come out together against it,” he said.

Following the example set by Andhra Pradesh, the Congress-ruled Telangana is now also likely to scrap the two-child norm for contesting the local body polls.

Several demographers say the South will have to address its low TFR soon. Srinivas Goli, associate professor in demographics at the IIPS, Mumbai, said, “When you say India is ageing, it is not that entire India is ageing; there is a lot of demographic diversity. Several South Indian states have crossed the old age dependency ratio of 15. Most of them now are around 18 and 19. Kerala is above 20.”

According to the India Ageing Report 2023 prepared by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), the elderly population in southern states such as Andhra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana is not only already high as compared to states in the North like Bihar, UP, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but will also increase at a much higher rate between 2021 and 2036.

As per the same report, the old age dependency ratio or the number of elderly persons compared to 100 people in the working age group of 15 to 59 years will correspondingly be higher in the South, at 19.4, compared to 15.2 in the North and 13.3 in Central India by 2036.