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Journalism of Courage
Not only will the results of the mammoth, seven-phase 2024 Lok Sabha polls determine the direction the Indian republic will take in the next five years (or more), they could also potentially decide the contours of electoral politics in the world’s largest democracy, and the future of many political parties in the fray.
As the largest opposition party with a pan-India presence, the Congress has the most to win (or lose). It has already bowed to the relentless pressure brought to bear by the BJP by electing a non-Gandhi to head the party. It has also shown signs of shedding its sloth with Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatras, the electoral impact of which will be revealed tomorrow. For some other regional parties, it’s a battle for survival.
The Congress was decimated in the Hindi heartland both in 2014 and 2019, resulting in the party plunging to its all-time low tally of 44 in 2014 and 52 in the last Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, the Congress could win only one seat each in Uttar Pradesh (Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli), Bihar (Kishanganj) and Madhya Pradesh (Chhindwara), which together account for 149 seats. It could not open its account in Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It won two seats in Chhattisgarh and one in Jharkhand. So the party won just 6 of the 225 Lok Sabha seats spread across 10 states.
The big question is whether the grand old party would be able to make a comeback in these Hindi-speaking states. Apart from doing reasonably well in south India – on its own in Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala, in alliance with the DMK in Tamil Nadu – the party must make gains in the North to stop the BJP juggernaut.
The Congress and the BJP squared off against each other on 193 seats in 2019. In other words, the candidates of these two parties were either winners or runners-up on these seats, including seats in states where there were triangular contests, but the BJP and the Congress emerged as winner or runner-up on these seats. Of these, the Congress could win just 15.
The challenge for the Congress is improving this ratio considerably. This time, the Congress and BJP are up against each other in 194 seats, which does not include seats in states like West Bengal, Kerala, Telangana or Tamil Nadu, where there are triangular contests. With the Congress having pitched itself as the BJP’s direct challenger — Rahul even dared Narendra Modi to a televised debate — the big question is whether the Congress can register a better performance this time.
By all accounts, Bihar, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Haryana are states where the Opposition hopes to make a dent in the BJP’s 2019 tally. The biggest test for the INDIA bloc lies in these states. Of these, two states — Haryana and Maharashtra — go to Assembly polls later this year. A third state, Bihar, will hold Assembly polls late next year.
The big question is whether the INDIA bloc manages to swing the verdict. In Bihar, the NDA had won 39 of 40 seats last time. In UP, the NDA had won 64 seats, leaving 10 to the BSP, five to the SP (when the two had fought in an alliance) and one to the Congress. This time, the SP and the Congress are fighting elections together in UP.
In Delhi, with the AAP and the Congress fighting separately, the BJP had won all seven seats in 2019. This time, the AAP and the Congress are together, both in Delhi and Haryana, where in 2019, the situation was similar. Maharashtra is slightly more complex, as the contours of both alliances have changed this time.
The Congress, which did not do well in the state in the 2018 Assembly polls, made a strong comeback in the 2023 Assembly polls to storm back to power in the state, winning 135 of 224 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had won 25 seats out of 28, while the Congress had won just one. But the Congress has two regional heavyweights in Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar, and is a potent force in the state.
However, the BJP is counting on the popularity of PM Modi. It has made former Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa’s son B Y Vijayendra the state party president to consolidate its core base, the Lingayats, and also hopes to get some Vokkaligas on board from its alliance with former PM H D Deve Gowda’s JD(S). It remains to be seen if the NDA can retain its 2019 tally in the state, or if the Congress is able to dent it.
On paper, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) is part of the INDIA bloc, even though it fought the elections alone, with the Congress and the Left Front maintaining the alliance. In 2019, the BJP stunned the TMC and the rest of the opposition, winning 18 seats and cornering a vote share of 40.64%.
The big question is whether the TMC will be able to ward off the BJP’s aggressive push this time. The BJP’s quest to improve upon its 2019 tally of 303 depends heavily on Bengal. The results of Bengal are also significant for the TMC, as well as the Opposition. With Assembly elections scheduled to be held in 2026, the outcome, whichever way it goes — will be crucial for all players — the BJP, the TMC and the Left- Congress combine. All eyes are also on whether the Left-Congress combine, which is caught between a polarised binary of the TMC and the BJP, will be able to regain any ground.
