Unlucky in seat, will Siddaramaiah strike gold in Kolar?

In Kolar, Siddaramaiah is banking on the guarantee of support by a four-time MLA who is joining the Congress from the JD(S), the presence of a sizeable number of his own OBC Kuruba caste members in Kolar in southern Karnataka, the seat’s substantial minority voters whose cause he has often espoused, and the hope of support from Dalit leader and former Congress MP K H Muniyappa.

Of Kolar’s nearly 2.25 lakh voters, around 40% are believed to be Vokkaligas, 20% backward castes, 15% Dalits, and 14% Muslims.

Speculation has been rife that K Srinivasa Gowda, a Vokkaliga who has won from Kolar four times, including in 2018, has had a fallout with the JD(S) leadership and is set to move to the Congress. In 2002, Gowda voted for a Congress candidate in the Rajya Sabha polls.

He has reportedly been assured a ticket to the Legislative Council and control of Kolar in return for supporting Siddaramaiah.

While Siddaramaiah is also counting on the Kuruba vote, a leader of the community now in the BJP, Varthur Prakash, says the former CM has been “misled” into believing that Kolar is a safe seat. Earlier considered a close Siddaramaiah follower, Prakash has won twice from Kolar (2008 and 2013 as an Independent).

“Siddaramaiah has influence in northern Karnataka as a Kuruba community leader. He does not have sway over voters in south Karnataka… Without any effort, I finished third in 2018. I will win again if I make the effort,” Prakash, who is a wealthy businessman, says.

Siddaramaiah has overcome another hurdle though, in the form of veteran K H Muniyappa, the seven-time Congress MP from Kolar Lok Sabha seat who lost in 2019 from the SC-reserved constituency after three decades. His daughter Roopakala is the Congress MLA from Kolar Gold Fields constituency, located next to Kolar seat.

Muniyappa had earlier been reported to be miffed about Siddaramaiah inducting several of his local rivals into the Congress. However, sources say the two have made up, with Siddaramaiah promising Muniyappa his full backing for future polls.

In fact, Muniyappa was one of the Kolar Congress leaders who “announced” Siddaramaiah’s candidature from Kolar at a rally this week. Siddaramaiah was quick to clarify that this was subject to the nod of the Congress leadership. “I cannot reject your love and affection. I have decided to be the candidate from Kolar. This is subject to approval from the high command as I cannot declare my candidacy,” he said.

Among minority voters, Siddaramaiah, who never shies away from raising issues concerning the minorities, may find fulsome support. With its sizable Muslim population, Kolar has thrice sent Muslim MLAs to the Assembly – 1957, 1978 and 1989, all three times on Congress ticket.

Siddaramaiah’s dilemma over which seat to pick stems from the fact that despite being a mass leader with support across constituencies, the former CM has struggled to find a safe seat for himself where rivalries between Kurubas and communities like the Vokkaligas, tribal Valmikis and Dalits do not negate his prospects.

A five-time MLA from Chamundeshwari in Mysuru region — 1983 (Independent), 1985 (Janata Party), 1994 and 2004 (Janata Dal), 2006 (Congress) — Siddaramaiah had abandoned the seat after his 2006 win was by a narrow 257 votes. He had contested that time as a Congress candidate, leaving the Janata Dal.

In 2008 and 2013, Siddaramaiah contested from Varuna, also in Mysuru region and with a similar caste matrix as Chamundeshwari (35% Lingayats, 25% OBCs and 20% Vokkaligas). He registered easy victories.

But then came the desire to blood his younger son, Yathindra Siddaramaiah, into politics when he was the CM. Siddaramaiah misjudged his own popularity in 2018 and shifted back to Chamundeshwari, leaving Varuna for his son.

Siddaramaiah was defeated in Chamundeshwari by the JD(S)’s G T Devegowda, even as Yathindra won Varuna comfortably. Thankfully for Siddaramaiah, he also contested at the time from Badami in north Karnataka – with Congress Kuruba leader B B Chimmanakatti vacating the seat for him. While he won, it was only a narrow win for the sitting CM over the BJP’s Valmiki Nayak community leader, B Sreeramulu. While the seat has nearly 30% Kurubas, close behind are 25% Valmiki Nayak voters.

Since 2018, there have been reports of divisions in the local Congress in Badami, as well as charges that Siddaramaiah has been unable to give the required attention to the constituency on account of most of his politics being concentrated in southern Karnataka.

Over the past few months, the Siddaramaiah camp had indicated a possible return to Varuna by the former CM. He is widely believed to have chosen Kolar to ensure that his son’s political career also continues.

“The early decision on the choice of a constituency is good for the Congress. It will enable the party to do better in regions adjoining Kolar and south Karnataka, which is crucial for us,” a Congress leader said.