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The Punjab farmer unions’ “Dilli Chalo” agitation is heating up state politics with the Lok Sabha elections just round the corner. It has already had an impact on the attempts being made by former NDA allies, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the BJP, to reach out to each other in a bid to restitch their alliance for the upcoming polls.
Both camps are closely tracking the outcome of the talks undertaken by the BJP-ruled Centre with the agitating farmer bodies to resolve the standoff.
The third round of talks between farm unions and three Union ministers — Piyush Goyal, Arjun Munda and Nityanand Rai — on farmers’ various demands — including a law on minimum support price (MSP) for crops and loan waivers — concluded on a “positive note” on Thursday-Friday night. They will meet again on Sunday evening, with the meetings also involving Chief Minister and AAP leader Bhagwant Mann.
The Sukhbir Badal-led SAD has already expressed solidarity with the protesting farmers, with the party’s core committee, its highest decision-making body, going into huddle on Thursday to deliberate on the fast-developing situation.
The SAD core committee, while reiterating the party’s full support to the farmers, decided that the party should not pursue a re-alliance with the BJP until a solution is found for redressal of their grievances.
A member of this top SAD panel told The Indian Express that a majority of its members were of the view that “at this stage and till the issues of farmers are resolved and the farm agitation ends, Akali Dal must not explore an alliance with BJP”.
Another senior Akali leader said, “Though 75 per cent of the top party leaders were of the view that having an alliance with BJP was in the interests of both the parties, but citing the farm stir, they said Akali Dal should desist from having an alliance at this stage. All were unanimous not to go ahead with any alliance talks till the concerns of farmers are resolved”.
The farming community has always remained the core support base of the SAD. In September 2020, Akalis had walked out of the NDA despite being the oldest BJP ally to protest the Narendra Modi-led government’s now-repealed farm laws over which scores of farm unions held year-long agitation on Delhi’s borders during 2020-21.
The Akali Dal has now been at its lowest ebb politically after having suffered back-to-back defeats in the Punjab Assembly polls in 2017 and 2022.
In the 2017 polls, when the NDA was intact, the SAD won 15 seats and the BJP 3 out of the total 117, with the Congress clinching the polls by bagging 77 seats. The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP had then made a stunning Assembly poll debut in the state, winning 20 seats to edge out the SAD and become the principal Opposition party.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, out of 13 seats in Punjab, the SAD got two seats and the BJP two as against the Congress’s eight and the AAP’s one seat.
In the 2022 Assembly polls, when the ex-NDA allies contested separately with Akalis joining hands with the BSP, the SAD’s tally plunged to three seats as against the Congress’s 18 seats and the BJP’s 2 seats. The AAP swept the polls by winning 92 seats.
Akalis have always banked on farmers’ support, with its governments known for rolling out various welfare schemes for them.
The current farm stir has also come as a setback to the BJP, which has been trying to make inroads into rural Punjab two years after it suffered hugely from the ramifications of the movement against the farm laws. Another spell of farm agitation would deal a blow to the BJP’s bid to expand its base in the state beyond its core vote bank of urban Hindus.
Throughout their alliance, the SAD contested 10 Lok Sabha seats, leaving three seats — Hoshiarpur, Gurdaspur and Amritsar — to the BJP. The party has been looking to stake its claim over more seats this time in the event of restoration of their alliance as the SAD is no longer the electoral force it used to be earlier.
However, if the farm stir continue, it would also put the BJP on back foot and reduce its bargaining strength vis-a-vis Akalis. “Things have changed now. Farm agitation is at a very critical stage. It will have major repercussions for both BJP and Akali Dal. We are representative of agrarian community. We have to tread very cautiously now. Alliance keep on happening and breaking. But, we cannot afford to lose one of our core support base,” a senior Akali leader told The Indian Express.
As the farm agitation started amid reports of Akali warming up to the BJP, the BSP on Tuesday broke its alliance with the SAD and declared that it will go solo in Punjab in the upcoming polls. The BSP leadership blamed the SAD’s seat-sharing talks with the BJP for its decision, even citing Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks in this regard.
SAD secretary general Balwinder Singh Bhunder, however, claimed it was the BSP’s “unilateral announcement” merely on the basis of media reports. “Has Sukhbir Badal ever said that talks were on with the BJP? Have I ever said so? No responsible party leaders made such statements,” Bhunder told The Indian Express.
