Deve Gowda in twilight years, shadows over its turf, JD(S) stares at dark days

However, its tally wrapped up at 19 seats in an Assembly of 224, nearly half of the 37 seats it had won in 2018. Its vote share dipped from 18% to 13%.

The last time the JD(S) did this badly was in 1999, when it plummeted to 10 seats. This was after a high of 115 seats in 1994, as the undivided Janata Dal, when it came to power. (Deve Gowda went on to become the prime minister from 1996 to 1997.) Between the 1994 and 1999 elections, its vote share dipped from 33.54% to 10.42%.

The Congress won in 1999 with 132 seats, nearly the same seats as its tally this time, of 135.

The JD(S) is widely believed to have become the collateral damage in the recent elections, where the electorate voted against the BJP but also seemed intent on ensuring that there was no hung verdict. In 2018, after such an imbroglio, the BJP had managed to topple the Congress-JD(S) government within a year by engineering defections from the ranks of both the allies.

One of the reasons for the JD(S) slide could be the perception that it was close to the BJP – the Congress kept harping on this, with the JD(S) having shared power with the BJP in the past. Another factor that was key is the apparently large-scale consolidation of Muslim votes – which also used to go to the JD(S) – in favour of the Congress.

In the past, the JD(S) has managed to pick itself up after such results, dust off losses and return to be in the reckoning for power. Soon after the massive 1999 loss, for example, the JD(S) had won 58 seats and doubled its vote share, to 20.77%, in 2004.

It had used this ‘kingmaker’ position to align first with the Congress for an innings in power (2004-2006), and then the BJP, after ditching the Congress, for a second innings (2006-2007). In 2007, the alliance fell apart after the JD(S) refused to transfer power, breaking a deal arrived earlier.

This “betrayal” is believed to have created enough sympathy for the BJP to clear the way for it reaching within striking distance of a full majority in Karnataka in 2008.

However, the apprehension this time is that the Deve Gowda family may not have enough fight left in the stomach. The party’s unquestioned supremo, Deve Gowda, is in his twilight years, having turned 91 on Thursday and ailing, with the insurmountable divisions in the JD(S) first family set to come to the fore now.

The decisive 2023 verdict also means that the JD(S) can no longer consider the Vokkaliga belt its sole turf, with the BJP breaking in and making it a triangular fight, along with the Congress. Another threat to the JD(S) is the rise of Congress heavyweight D K Shivakumar as a Vokkaliga leader.

The JD(S)’s 1999 rout had followed the splintering of the Janata Dal into the JD(S) and JD(U) factions. While the JD(S) had ended up with 10.42% of the votes and 10 seats then, the JD(U) had got 13.53% votes and 18 seats.

JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy and his wife Anitha Kumaraswamy, along with their son Nikhil Kumaraswamy and his wife Revathi, pose after casting their votes in the Karnataka Assembly elections. (Express photo)

In his post-election remarks, Prajwal Revanna spoke about the 1999 elections, saying: “The big man lost, Kumaranna (H D Kumaraswamy) lost, (H D) Revanna lost, everyone lost. (But) In 2004 we bounced back, winning 58 seats. Again, in 2008, amid the allegations made against us of being anti-Lingayat, we won 28 seats, and in the next election got 40.”

Rise and fall is a part of politics, Prajwal said, adding: “The BJP that was at 104 (in 2018) has fallen to 66.”

This time too, a loss within the family marks the JD(S)’s slide, that of Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil from Ramanagara, a family pocket borough. He lost to Iqbal Hussain of the Congress, marking his second straight defeat after the 2019 Lok Sabha poll loss. Then too, he was fighting from a safe seat, Mandya in the Vokkaliga belt in south Karnataka.

Before the elections, there had been a dispute – that played out in the public – over a ticket for Bhavani Revanna, the wife of H D Revanna and mother of Prajwal, from Hassan. The move was spiked by Kumarawamy, whose main rival in control of the party is elder brother Revanna.

Prajwal argues that while it is a setback for the JD(S) that it lost nearly 5% of its vote share in the Old Mysore Region – which encompasses Vokkaliga heartland districts like Mandya and Ramanagara – the victory margins indicate the JD(S) hadn’t lost its support.

“Nearly 20 to 25 seats were lost by less than 5,000 votes. In many places, like Mandya, we lost because the BJP took our vote share. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Old Mysore many times and this had an effect,” Revanna said, adding that the next election would be “a different situation”.

On frequent barbs at the JD(S) of being a family-centric party, and whether this was a factor for voters even in a region where Deve Gowda is still regarded warmly and Kumaraswamy seen as the foremost leader of the party, Revanna said: “There is family politics in all political parties, from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. The Congress has fielded many who have won… Only 10 of the BJP’s 75 new candidates won despite it boasting that it was going against family politics.”

Prajwal said there was no one reason, and no one person responsible for the JD(S) loss, mentioning the desertion of Muslims as one of the factors in Mandya.

Son of Karnataka minister H D Revanna, was eventually the only candidate from the Gowda family and the JD(S) to win a seat in the 2019 polls.

“We have time on our hands, there are five years left (to the next elections). We have to correct the situation,” his father HD Revanna said after the poll verdict.

There are suggestions in some JD(S) circles that other people be given more room in the party, including Revanna’s sons, rather than the current overwhelming presence of Kumaraswamy and his side of the family. During the campaign, Kumaraswamy travelled the length and breadth of the state, despite carrying a heart ailment.

The JD(S)’s usual problems such as shrinking of resources after poll losses are also set to exacerbate, especially with civic polls in Bengaluru and taluk / zilla panchayat elections looming as soon as the new Congress government is in place this week.

“Financial management is very tough now. There are no MLAs from Bengaluru. Fighting the BBMP (Bengaluru corporation) polls will be a Herculean task for us. Even zilla and taluk panchayat polls will be hard. We have very few MLAs and we will not be able to provide any financial assistance to our candidates. We have to prepare for the Lok Sabha polls in 2024. To prove ourselves, we have to win at least two MP seats,” a JD(S) worker said.

The emergence of Shivakumar as the new Vokkaliga force – even without the chief minister’s post – is another threat for the JD(S). Acknowledging this, a JD(S) worker said: “Our future also depends on some decisions taken by the Congress. Siddaramaiah becoming CM is an advantage for us because we can consolidate the Vokkaliga votes (by playing up that Shivakumar was denied the post). We can also attract Dalits (some Congress leaders had called for a Dalit CM).”

“DK Shivakumar as CM would have helped the BJP because the votes of OBCs (Siddaramaiah is an OBC) would go away from the Congress in the northern districts where the BJP is stronger,” the JD(S) worker said.

Several quarters in the JD(S) reportedly want the JD(S) to ally with the BJP for next year’s general elections, particularly since its Muslim votes appear to have moved to the Congress.

The JD(S) is expected to analyse the situation with its winning and losing candidates to decide on the future course of action. “The restructure has to be from our own base,” a JD(S) leader said.