Tags:
Journalism of Courage
The BJP’s record-breaking victory in Gujarat illustrates the success of its booth micromanagement that complemented the popularity and the trust Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys among the electorate, while the absence of a similar strategy and organisational failure to effect timely changes cost it in Himachal Pradesh.
On the back of Modi’s intense campaign and a meticulously planned organisational strategy by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the BJP won more than 150 seats in Gujarat, where it lost a few layers of sheen in 2017. This time, the BJP not only broke its personal best of 127 seats from the 2002 Assembly polls, which was held in the aftermath of the post-Godhra riots, it also eclipsed the Congress’s record of 149 seats from 1985 that came on the back of a sympathy wave created by Indira Gandhi’s assassination.
This time, the BJP’s united and disciplined cadre and a robust organisation negated factors such as anti-incumbency, complacency, and fatigue. A senior party leader attributed the Gujarat victory to two factors. “Micromanagement is the BJP’s style. BJP always campaigns with full vigour. But in Gujarat what helped the BJP is the entry of the AAP into the political landscape of Gujarat, splitting the anti-BJP votes. Rahul Gandhi’s disengagement with the anti-BJP movement in the state and the local Congress leadership’s disinterest have just added to it.”
Though Modi campaigned in Himachal Pradesh, the party missed Shah’s micromanagement and was hurt by the absence of a united cadre working behind one leader. Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur won his seat, Seraj, with almost 76 per cent vote share but many in the BJP attributed the party’s loss in the hill state to his style of functioning. According to BJP insiders, the party also seems to have been thwarted by a strong yearning for change in the hill state, which has been switching between the BJP and the Congress every five years for more than three decades. In the end, the BJP’s vote share was 43 per cent, just 0.9 percentage point less than that of the Congress.
Gujarat
Concerned about surveys showing the fraying of its absolute dominance in the state, a desire for change as well as the nimbleness of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has proved as adept as the BJP at the perception game, the BJP leadership expedited its Gujarat preparations.
The leadership carried out an organisational overhaul, changing everyone right from the chief minister and state president to ministers and office-bearers. The leadership considered the elections in the state as a test of the robustness of the organisation, so far a dominant election-winning machine, the effectiveness of its strategies, and the enduring popularity of its top leaders.
Conceding that anti-incumbency had sharpened due to the “non-charismatic” state leadership, the party completely overhauled the Cabinet and made Bhupendra Patel the chief minister last year. Vijay Rupani, who had taken over the reins from Anandiben Patel just ahead of the 2017 elections, struggled to find his feet and could not rise to the expectations of the central leadership, which decided to remove him without even letting him know in advance. In an interview to The Indian Express, Rupani said he was in the dark till the last moment about his removal as CM. CR Paatil was brought in as president of the state unit in July 2020 ahead of crucial local body elections, replacing Jitu Vaghani who is a Patel by caste. There were key changes in the organisation such as Ratnakar replacing Bhikhubhai Dalsaniya as the general secretary for the organisation. Dalsaniya was appointed general secretary (organisation) of the party’s Bihar unit.
In the candidate selection, too, the BJP was ruthless. The party replaced “uninspiring” legislators — it dropped 41 of its sitting MLAs — and introduced fresh faces to overcome anti-incumbency sentiments.
While Modi engaged in direct outreach to renew his connection with the electorate in the state, Shah was stationed in Gujarat weeks ahead of the elections to oversee booth-level preparations. According to sources, he chaired meetings with booth-level workers almost every day, gave them instructions, and closely reviewed the progress of the campaign. “He even wanted to know why one particular spot was chosen for election rallies. He reviewed the door-to-door campaign, publicity material — everything in detail. His meetings used to go on till the wee hours,” said a party leader from Gujarat.
Specific community outreach was another strategy the BJP introduced more vigorously this time, said sources. It deployed all its top Union Ministers, Chief Ministers, and senior leaders to different parts of Gujarat. Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityananth and his Assam counterpart Himanta Biswa Sarma were on top of the list. The party also launched a “carpet bombing” strategy, with all the leaders campaigning intensely on particular days simultaneously.
Himachal Pradesh
The BJP’s plan to benefit from Prime Minister Modi’s popularity to retain power in the hill state failed because it was not backed by a disciplined cadre base, strong leadership that could micromanage the campaign, and a sturdy organisation.
While the Congress made a successful attempt to wage the electoral battle on local issues, banking on its local leadership, the BJP tried to turn it into an election on Modi versus other leaders. This strategy did not work and the results reflected a sentiment against the BJP and a desire to continue with the tradition of voting out the incumbent government.
Sources in Himachal BJP said the signs of a setback were evident for more than a year but the national leadership did not step in to make the required changes. Even the party’s defeat in November 2021 bypolls did not make the leadership go for an overhaul of the organisation or the government, said a senior party leader.
Sensing the weakness of the state leadership and the government, Modi, the BJP’s trump card for every major election, extensively campaigned in Himachal Pradesh and appealed to the electorate to vote for him. Modi tried to strike an emotional chord with voters but they seemed to have distinguished between state elections and Lok Sabha polls.
The tussle in the BJP at the top level also appeared to have worked against its prospects. The failure of the leadership will be the message that will be coming from the BJP camp. Thakur, a moderate and soft face, was seen as a leader close to the party’s national president JP Nadda. Many voters pointed out that Thakur was not able to find his feet in the state unit that has witnessed a tussle between the Nadda camp and those close to former CM Prem Kumar Dhumal. The national leadership could not contain the rebellion in the state unit or manage the “invisible Dhumal factor” that affected the party’s prospects, said a source. A leader pointed out that the electorate in the state had always been proud of its strong and decisive leaders, be it Virbhadra Singh or Dhumal.
The BJP leadership’s decision to not accommodate many demands of the Dhumal camp antagonised a section of the state cadre, said a party source. A source close to Thakur blamed the national leadership’s strategy to keep out several “party leaders who worked hard with the CM for five years” during ticket distribution. “In around 20 seats, the national leaders did not pay any heed to the requests of the state leadership,” said a source.
