Journalism of Courage
It is turning out to be quite a cracker of an election in Himachal. At stake is the reputation of several leaders on both sides of the aisle. The ruling BJP has clearly set its heart on retaining the hill state while the Congress is banking on anti-incumbency to ride back to power. A multitude of rebels in the fray and the tepid entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) make it a tightly contested election in a state where the margins tend to be wafer thin.
Amidst all this are Himachali voters who have not returned a sitting government to power after 1985. Ramesh Chauhan, a political scientist at Himachal Pradesh University, tries to put things into perspective when he says, “In the last 37 years, Himachal politics has been dominated by two tall chief ministers, Congress’s Virbhadra Singh and BJP’s Prem Kumar Dhumal, but the voter did not vote them back to power despite their stellar track record. While Virbhadra at best got 31 seats in 1998 when trying to get a second consecutive term, Dhumal lost with 26 seats in 2012 even though his was considered one of the best-performing governments of the state.”
But it is different this time, at least on the surface. Never has Himachal or Dev Bhumi, known for its humble and accessible politicians, unlike neighbouring Punjab, been wooed so hard. The ruling party has pressed into service all its top guns, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself leading the charm offensive with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and Union minister Smriti Irani among those crisscrossing the state to cover all its 68 constituencies.
Shashi Kumar, a political scientist, says although PM Modi continues to be a popular and highly respected figure across the state, the party’s claim of a double-engine government is now being greeted with scepticism by voters who question the wisdom of having state-level decisions taken in Delhi.
The over two lakh strong government employee lobby, which has been demanding the restoration of the old pension scheme, is also denting the double-engine claim. “The government employees have not been paid the arrears of the revised pay under the Seventh Pay Commission, there is a lot of angst which goes in favour of Congress,’’ says Chauhan.
While Priyanka Gandhi has announced that like in other Congress-ruled states, the party will make the restoration of OPS its priority, BJP union minister Anurag Thakur also hinted that the party will address the concerns of government employees.
Other issues for the November 12 polls include the Agniveer scheme and discontent among apple growers, whose profits have been shrinking due to the rising cost of inputs, including cartons. That the new recruitment scheme is rankling youngsters aspiring for a career in the forces was evident when Major (retired) Vijai Singh Mankotia, a senior Congress leader who joined the BJP last month, said he would take up the issue with the PM.
The prestige of many a homegrown leader is also at stake in these elections. BJP national president JP Nadda, who hails from Bilaspur, has had a hectic month or two, first deciding the candidates and then soothing the ruffled feathers of those who did not make it.
Surprisingly, the BJP has not been very successful in pacifying the rebels who are contesting as independents on more than two dozen seats. Congress, on the contrary, has had more success in this area, perhaps because it repeated all its sitting legislators.
Independents, who won six seats in the 2012 Assembly polls, are expected to give a tough fight to party candidates in more than 20 constituencies. This may have a significant impact on elections in a state where the winning margins are slender. In 2017, the lowest victory margin was 120 votes.
Although the AAP seems to be making a half-hearted attempt in the state after a dramatic start in the summer, they have candidates with strong local presence on over half-a-dozen seats. An observer pointed out how all the votes that went to NOTA in the last elections — NOTA was at the number three spot in 12 seats — could go to the new entrant. “Whether BJP will gain from it, only time will tell,’’ says an observer, who feels the AAP can cut into Congress votes in some constituencies.
Then there is the “Dhumal factor” being tom-tommed by the Congress. Two-time CM Prem Kumar Dhumal, fondly called “sadkon wale CM” from the neighbouring Hamirpur finds himself in a piquant situation as Congress leaders such as Sukhwinder Sukhu invoke his name to demonstrate the “BJP’s double standards”. Sukhu, who is contesting from Nadaun in Hamirpur, often drags Dhumal into his speeches to say how he was given the short shrift by the BJP in the 2017 polls when he was denied the CM’s post despite being declared the chief ministerial candidate as he lost his seat. Pushkar Dhami, meanwhile, was made the CM of Uttarakhand despite losing his re-election bid. The veteran is seen as having been cut to size after being denied a ticket along with some of his loyalists this time even though the 78-year-old says he was never in the race.
The grand old party has a serious problem of its own. Ever since the death of five-time CM Virbhadra Singh last year, the party has half-a-dozen claimants to the top post. They include Mukesh Agnihotri, the leader of the Opposition; three-time MLA and former state Congress chief Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu; five-time MLA Ram Lal Thakur; eight-time MLA Kaul Singh; six-time legislator Asha Kumari; and Virbhadra’s widow Pratibha Singh, the MP from Mandi and state Congress chief. This prompted Pratibha Singh to say that these leaders should first work to ensure the party’s victory instead of dwelling on the top post. “When you see the leadership issue, it’s clearly advantage BJP,’’ says a political observer, pointing out how these veterans who were facing anti-incumbency were focusing on retaining their own constituencies.
Except for Priyanka Gandhi, who has visited the state twice, no senior Congress leader has yet campaigned in the state. And many are questioning the absence of Rahul Gandhi, who is on a Bharat Jodo Yatra. Most party leaders claim they are banking on their local connect to sail through. As the flamboyant RS Bali, son of late GS Bali, a former minister in the Virbhadra Cabinet, puts it, “Ours is a small state, personal connections matter the most here, people are not dazzled by big leaders or tall promises.”
