BJP banks on Modi as across Himachal, discontent brews over pension scheme, jobs

However, this clear show of support for Thakur is seen mostly in Mandi, the CM’s home district. Outside, the “achievements” of the Thakur government are always supplementary to those of Modi’s.

With just a week to go for polling in the hill state, the BJP is harping on a predictable campaign narrative — the muscular nationalism of the Modi government laced with a not-so-subtle Hindutva appeal and an assertion that the state should continue to have a “double-engine government”.

But beneath the surface, the perceptible disenchantment among government employees and pensioners — an influential class of voters — over the pending demand to return to the old pension scheme (OPS), visible angst among the youth over “lack of government job recruitments” and restiveness among apple growers have the party anxious.

Adding to that is the unexpected rebel trouble that the ruling party is facing in many districts (including in BJP national president J P Nadda’s Bilaspur), giving the Congress — which has not won a state election on its own since 2018 — ample hope that the state will stick to its tradition of throwing the incumbent out.

In a state where there are few industries because of geographic limitations, job opportunities are mostly limited to tourism and government sectors and apple trade. And that is where the BJP is feeling the heat, despite the perceptible rightward shift in the electorate in a state with a minuscule Muslim population.

Modi’s popularity too remains more or less intact, and he draws praise — even from odd Congress workers — for abrogating Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, improving the “saakh (prestige)” of the country, showing “Pakistan its place” and his muscular foreign policy.

But across the lower Himachal districts of Una, Kangra, Hamirpur, Bilaspur and Mandi, the conversations are mostly about local candidates and their performance. And overwhelmingly about the OPS, lack of jobs and, linked to it, the controversial Agniveer defence recruitment scheme. The state has arguably the maximum number of soldiers in the Army in proportion to its population. Besides, about 1.3 lakh government employees, who will be impacted by a pension decision.

Surender Pal, a driver with the state Jal Shakti Department in Una, does not mince his words. Having voted for the BJP in 2017 and in 2019, he says he will prefer Lotus in 2024 as well. But he can’t forgive CM Thakur for his statement that government employees demanding the OPS should quit their jobs and contest elections. “How can he say that? After spending our life in government service… is it wrong to ask for a pension? MLAs too have pensions,” he says.

He and his colleague Ricky, a contractual employee, admit there has been “development”. “Kaam toh bahut hua hai (A lot of work has been done). The roads are good now, even the water problem will be solved soon. But pension is a concern,” Pal says.

Outside a coaching centre next to a degree college in Amb, some kilometres away from Una, the conversation among a group of 23-year-olds quickly veers to job opportunities. One of them, who does not want to be identified, says he cleared the police constable examination but there is uncertainty now since the question paper leaked. “There are many posts lying vacant, of jail wardens, forest guards, but appointments are not being made,” he says.

Cut to Mandi, some 140 km away. Suresh Kumar, an employee with the Electricity Department, worries for his Army aspirant son, who could not clear the Agniveer test.

In Bilaspur, Rahul Katoch, 19 and a first-time voter, says jobs will be a factor in voting by the youth.

Even those not in government service have family members who are, and hence the OPS issue cuts across – relegating even the rise in fuel prices to the back.

The Congress, predictably, is harping on this angst. It has promised to provide one lakh jobs, restore the OPS and provide financial assistance of Rs 1,500 to every woman. Interestingly, there is no mention of the Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Jodo Yatra.

More importantly for the voters, both Congress-ruled Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have reinstated the OPS.

Bhagat Ram, a Congress Seva Dal functionary in Nachan near Mandi, modifies what was once a popular anti-Vasundhara Raje slogan in Rajasthan to say: “The mood is clear this time. Modi tujh se bair nahin, Jai Ram teri khair nahin (No issue with Modi, but no chance for Jai Ram). It is game over for Jai Ram.”

What is unsaid by him is completed by another Congress worker. “See, Modi and Jai Ram have done nothing for the state… We are not talking 2024 here,” says Dhani Ram, who called himself a Congress sipahi (soldier).

BJP supporters insist the many Congress promises are easier said than done, given the stress on the financial situation of the state.

Himachal has about 2.5 lakh government employees out of which close to 1.5 lakh are covered under the NPS. If the OPS is restored, the state government will have to shell out an additional Rs 700 crore.

The Thakur government had tabled a Rs 51,000 crore budget for 2022-23. “The Congress is saying the party will bring back the OPS. Look at their situation in states where they have a government. If there is any tangible solution to OPS, it will only be brought by the BJP,” Thakur said recently.

Amid this BJP-Congress race, the Aam Aadmi Party’s efforts seem to be just to make its presence felt. Even its workers admit as much. At the busy Kangra market, where AAP campaign vehicles are more in numbers than other parts, shopkeepers smile: “Jhaaduwale bi hain (There is AAP), but the main contest is between the BJP and Congress.”

At a parking lot, AAP volunteer Karan Thakur, who supplies vehicles for a private school, says they understand that the priority now is Gujarat. “If not this time, then next.”