AAP entry forces BJP to go back to drawing board in Himachal Pradesh

As part of this recalibration, BJP president J P Nadda, who hails from the state, has already launched the party’s campaign, while the party leadership rushed Union Minister Anurag Thakur to the state in an attempt to “demoralise” its rivals. Thakur, along with Nadda, had played a key role in breaking the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) top brass in the state.

The BJP’s move comes even as the AAP, upbeat after its victory in neighbouring Punjab, made clear its electoral ambitions by holding a roadshow in Mandi on April 6 led by AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.

Barely two days after the Mandi roadshow, AAP’s HP unit chief Anoop Kesari, general secretary (Organisation) Satish Thakur and Una president Iqbal Singh joined the BJP. AAP’s state Mahila Morcha chief Mamta Thakur and some office bearers of its women’s wing also joined the BJP.

According to BJP sources, the party leadership’s decision to send Anurag Thakur is “significant” — Thakur’s work on the party’s social media campaign during the Uttar Pradesh election had come in for praise from the top brass. Thakur was elevated to the Cabinet rank in the last reshuffle when he was given the Information & Broadcasting portfolio along with Youth Affairs and Sports Ministry.

BJP sources admit that while the party has, in terms of optics and narrative, won the first round, it has deeper issues to tackle in the hill state, where the party recently faced a humiliating defeat in the byelections. In a shock defeat for the BJP, the Congress had swept the byelections, winning the Mandi Lok Sabha constituency besides the Assembly segments of Arki, Fatehpur and Jubbal-Kotkhai.

A section of party leaders, including some from the central leadership, are of the view that Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur has failed to provide inspiring leadership and hasn’t been able to win popular support.

Sources also say the CM has not been able to handle the bureaucracy effectively, resulting in corruption allegations against some top officials, including Chief Secretary Ram Subhag Singh.

On Sunday, speaking in Shimla, Nadda, however, said the party has no plans to replace Jai Ram Thakur and that the forthcoming Assembly election would be fought under his leadership.

Said a senior party leader: “The party may not be in a position to go in for a change of guard in Himachal Pradesh as we have to go to people with the report card of the Jai Ram Thakur government’s five years in power. So dropping the CM at this stage will only give the Opposition ammunition to attack us. But we can project a young leader like Thakur as the party’s future.”

The BJP’s main focus in Himachal Pradesh is expected to be on Prime Minister Modi’s popularity, the welfare initiatives of the Central government and the state’s record on Covid management in the run-up to the election. Himachal was the first state to have fully vaccinated its target population.

The party may also have to rework its caste strategy. The upper-castes, mainly the Brahmins and Rajputs, make up over 50 per cent of votes in Himachal Pradesh but unlike in many other states, the BJP can’t claim monopoly over this chunk of voters. The state also has over 25 per cent SC votes and 5.7 per cent ST votes, with the backward classes constituting around 14 per cent. With the Congress, its main rival so far, also enjoying considerable support among all these communities, the BJP can ill-afford another contender for these votes in the form of the AAP.

With Modi saying the party should work on getting women voters on its side, the state government is expected to announce a series of programmes targeted at women. Party leaders pointed out that in 70 per cent of the state’s constituencies, the polling percentage of women was higher than for men in the 2017 assembly elections.

Despite the challenges, BJP state president Suresh Kumar Kashyap argued that the party is confident about returning to power. “There’s no ambiguity — the party’s national president has clarified that we are fighting an election with Jai Ram Thakur as the leader in the state. We have launched our preparations and we will go to the people with our report card of five years in the state and eight years of Modiji at the Centre. Our achievements in pandemic management and vaccination as well as the welfare schemes are unique,” Kashyap told The Indian Express.

According to Kashyap, Modi has a “special bonding and appeal” in the state where he had earlier worked as the party’s state-in-charge. “Modiji’s achievements as Prime Minister will be highlighted. Modi hain to mumkin hain.”

In the 2017 Assembly election, the BJP won 44 of 68 Assembly seats with 48.8 per cent votes, while the Congress got 21 seats (vote share of 41.7 per cent).