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Journalism of Courage
Elections ’99 underscore the paradigm shift that has visibly taken place in political representation.
Communities have become more conscious, yet more segmented and, at the same time, more aware that they have to reach out to other groups to be successful.
The Dalit assertion is particularly pronounced this time. In Tamil Nadu, the TMC has forged a new Dalit-Muslim combine, bringing together militant Dalit organisations like the Puthiya Tamizhagam and Dalit Panthers, which had boycotted polls for 12 years, with other fringe groups. The Madiga-Mala conflict has sharpened in Andhra Pradesh. Mayawati has further consolidated her grip over the Dalits in Uttar Pradesh. Ram Vilas Paswan could easily shift to the BJP because of the support he enjoys from the Pasis in Bihar.
Even the upper castes have voted tactically in many places this time. There were reports that the Brahmins swung back to the BJP in Allahabad when they realised that a division in their vote (between Rita Bahuguna of the Congress and MurliManohar Joshi of the BJP) may enable the BSP to romp home.
The OBC revolution, which started over 25 years ago in the north and 50 years earlier in Tamil Nadu, when the Periyar-led Dravidian movement challenged the Brahminical order in the south, is moving into the next phase now.
The most backward of the OBCs (they comprise 30 per cent in Bihar) and the Dalits are asking why the fruits of Mandal should be cornered only by the more well-to-do and better organised OBCs (synonymous with the Yadavs today). Mayawati is banking on this sentiment when she fields a Mallah in a constituency, in the hope of an accretion to her Dalit vote bank which Muslims can also support.
For the same reason, Mayawati is also talking about not being against the upper castes, but about creating a “sarv samaj” (as opposed to the “Bahujan samaj” rhetoric of yesteryear). The BSP has come a long way from the abuses it heaped on the upper castes.
The BJP is finding it unusually difficult to deal with the turbulence within itsown ranks in UP, with increased consciousness among the backward classes, which is expected to cost it several seats. Since the party has been an avowedly upper caste outfit for a long time, these communities are finding it more difficult to make way for others than might have been the case, say, in a party like the Congress which too has been controlled by the forward castes.
The BJP will have its task cut out in UP in the months to come. Like a bone in the throat, Kalyan Singh has got stuck in the BJP’s gullet. It is neither able to spit it out nor swallow it. Dethroning him will push him into Mulayam Singh’s arms in what could become a backward consolidation, with the potential of pushing the BJP to the sidelines. For the upper castes are likely then to swing to a Muslim-backed Congress. Retaining him would deepen the simmering discontent in the upper castes, pushing them increasingly into the arms of the Congress.
Though the ’99 polls have been characterised by a coalitional bipolarity, and a 1996type United Front government of chief ministers in Delhi does not seem likely, the poll process has once again underlined the importance of the states. Power continues to move downwards.
There is a growing realisation that unless you are a player in the state, you are not likely to carry much weight at the Centre. For all his reservations, Chandrababu Naidu tied up with the BJP in Andhra Pradesh to remain relevant. The DMK, for all its earlier opposition to “Hindi and Hindu”, joined hands with a Hindutva outfit, negating a history of 50 years. Sharad Pawar plans to come to Delhi via Mumbai. Even R.K. Hegde may be open to persuasion to return to Karnataka, were the BJP-JD(U) arithmetic could bring about a government of the combine. Today a chief minister is more powerful than a central minister. In a coalition arrangement, a central minister has a dual loyalty — to the Prime Minister and to his party leader.
In the seventies and even the eighties, the newly emerging groups led protest movements inopposition to majority governments. These groups are now in the power set-up, representing various interests and identities and fighting for space. The protest movements on issues have disappeared.
Successive prime ministers in the last ten years have learnt that power sharing is the key to the management of contradictions and to survival. Little attention, however, has been paid to the issues of governance. As it is India is becoming increasingly ungovernable.
There was a time when elections were used by Jawaharlal Nehru as an opportunity to educate the people about the issues before the nation. The first PM used to talk even about foreign policy matters at his poll rallies.
The ’99 campaign was pathetic in this respect. Nobody talked about the challenges that lie ahead for the new government, the cut in expenditure that will be necessary to provide snow shoes for our jawans, for instance. The election rhetoric hardly went beyond a trading of personal charges and touched a new low.
