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The United States is trying to forge a mutual defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, and help Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Iran, such that “Israel and Saudi Arabia are trading places”, columnist Thomas Friedman wrote in The New York Times last week.
According to the article, the Saudi-US deal will pivot on the specific ways in which the US will control the civilian nuclear energy programme that the kingdom will get; the precise — whether explicit or less formal — nature of the mutual defence pact; and on Saudi Arabia’s commitment to not move from US dollars to the Chinese yuan in pricing oil.
However, for the deal to go through, it is critical that Saudi normalises relations with Israel, Friedman wrote. And “that will happen only if Israel...get[s] out of Gaza, freeze[s] the building of settlements in the West Bank and embark[s] on a three- to five-year ‘pathway’ to establish a Palestinian state in the occupied territories.”
For US President Joe Biden, heading into a difficult re-election battle in November, this scenario could bring significant benefits. Also, a successful conclusion of the US-Saudi mutual defence treaty would signal that America is back in play in the Middle East, where Beijing announced its increasing strategic clout by brokering a peace deal between Riyadh and Tehran in March 2023.
For India, a US-Saudi Arabia pact and peace between Israel and Iran and Israel and Hamas could mean an opportunity to better harness the region’s potential.
Especially over the past decade, India has sought to build its relationship with Saudi Arabia, where the young Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has been driving a range of radical reforms to put his country in better sync with the 21st century world.
India-Saudi trade was valued at $52.76 billion in 2022-23. India is the second largest trade partner for Saudi, while Saudi is India’s fourth largest trade partner. Energy cooperation is at the heart of the relationship; Saudi Arabia was India’s third largest crude and petroleum products sourcing destination in 2022-23.
Major Saudi investment groups ARAMCO, SABIC, ZAMIL, E-holidays, and Al Batterjee Group have invested in India. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has put in approximately $4.6 billion in Indian startups such as Delhivery, FirstCry, Grofers, Ola, OYO, Paytm, and PolicyBazaar.
The more than 2.4 million strong Indian community in Saudi Arabia is seen as a living bridge between the two countries, and the Indian diaspora is widely respected in the kingdom for their contributions.
India’s ties with Israel have become steadily more visible and significant over the past decade or so, centred mainly on defence and security, innovation, agriculture, and water.
Trade volumes have risen from around $200 million in 1992 (consisting primarily of diamonds) to $10.7 billion (excluding defence) in 2022-23, of which Indian exports were around $ 8.4 billion. India is Israel’s second-largest trading partner in Asia, and the seventh largest globally.
Israel has been a major supplier of defence equipment, as well as of high-tech communications systems that have helped meet some of India’s security tech challenges. Israel is an important partner to India in the innovation ecosystem — smart irrigation systems being an example of cooperation in this field.
The strengthened bilateral strategic partnerships have allowed India to delink its domestic politics from its foreign policy and strategy in the region as a whole. After more than three decades of diplomatic work on its relationships in the Middle East, New Delhi had begun to reap some benefits.
In July 2022, Prime Minister Narendra Modi participated virtually in the first leaders’ summit under the I2U2 framework along with Israel’s then Prime Minister Yair Lapid, UAE’s President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and President Biden.
And in September 2023, the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor connectivity project was launched on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi.
But the October 7, 2023 terrorist attacks by Hamas in southern Israel, and the consequent retaliatory military response from Israel on Gaza have posed difficult challenges for India’s diplomatic strategy. New Delhi will welcome a durable peace in the Middle East, with a stronger American presence in the region it considers its extended neighbourhood.
Two of the most important leaders in the region, MBS and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, have undergone major reputational transformations in recent years.
MBS, who was tarnished by his war in Yemen and alleged involvement in the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, appears to some commentators today as the great liberaliser after decades of hardline absolutist rule that had stifled Saudi society.
His sweeping reforms, including new rights for Saudi women, have given MBS a reputation that makes it easier for the leaders of many western democracies to do business with him.
On the other hand, Netanyahu has become, in the company of his far right allies, a hawk who appears to link the continuation of the war in Gaza to his own political survival. His intransigence has made the US steadily more impatient — and Biden said this week that he had told Netanyahu that he would halt weapons shipments if the Israeli military invaded Rafah, the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip.
The warning has not had an impact on Netanyahu. Halting the war is key to Biden’s re-election campaign. American university campuses are in turmoil, and polls suggest that young Democratic voters are upset with the US’s support for the war.
